Steph Curry
Curry and the Warriors head to the Big Apple this evening to take on the Knicks. Golden State has been on a nice run as of late, having won their last 11/14 games. Conversely, New York is fighting to stay above water given the injuries they’ve been dealing with.
Curry should be primed for a big spot tonight. He will be facing a Knicks defense that has struggled defending around the perimeter. New York is allowing the 23rd most shot attempts from deep (37.2%) and opponents are making over 38% of those looks, which also ranks them 23rd.
We more than understand just how dominant Curry is from three-point land, so I don’t need to go too deep into his numbers, but the bulk of it is that he’s taking 58% of his shots from there and making 41%.
More often than not these star players get up for these matchups at Madison Square Garden - much like a lot of guys do out in Los Angeles. And throughout the last three games, Curry hasn’t eclipsed 20 points; so I expect him to be geared up and let it all fly for this meeting.
26.5 (-122) is the best prop price I saw on Curry - and that was listed at FanDuel. He’s gone over this mark in 29/54 games this season (54%). Yes, it's a high number to back, but this is a game that’s filled with high stakes, so we should expect the stars to show out.
Play: Steph Curry Over 26.5 Points (-122); Risk 1.22 units to win 1.00
Nikola Jokic
The other nationally televised game this evening involves a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals. Will the Heat be able to enact revenge? Perhaps, but that’s not where my interests reside.
I’m looking at the big man himself - Nikola Jokic.
Jokic is taking almost 50% of his shot attempts from midrange. In particular, 40% are occurring from short midrange. Miami has allowed 32.6% of their opponents' looks to come from all midrange territory (22nd) and within that area, almost 25% of the shots come specifically from short midrange (28th).
Not only is the volume of shots from there frequent, but the success, too. The Heat’s opponents are making 45% of their shots from all midrange (25th) and 46.5% from short midrange (26th). Also, Erik Spoelstra's crew really struggles at the rim as their competition is connecting on over 69% of their attempts within four feet of the bucket (27th).
This is not the same defensive-oriented Miami group that we’ve been accustomed to in the past. And - more importantly - it’s a defense that struggles in specific regions where the Nuggets best player thrives.
Last year in the finals, Jokic averaged 30.2 points and went over his prop mark that is listed for tonight - 25.5 - in 4/5 contests.
Yes, Denver is on the second-leg of a back-to-back, but they won in a blowout last night and didn’t really stress the utilization of Jokic. He took only 9 field goal attempts. Also, prior to last night’s game, they had two days off - so the squad should be adequately rested.
On the other side, the Heat haven’t played at their home arena since February 11th. Granted, the All-Star Break occurred during that span, but after that break they hopped right back on the trails and are about to play their fourth game of this road trip.
Even though they have the motivation for revenge, it seems like they are catching a bad break with the scheduling situation.
Nevertheless, all I’m relying on is for the former MVP to play like a champ again.
Play: Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 Points (-104); Risk 1.04 units to win 1.00
NBA record: 20-8 (+8.82)
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