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  • Writer's pictureDanny Burke

Plays for NBA Finals Game 1, MLB slate

It feels like it's been months since we last witnessed an NBA game being played.


In reality it's been a week.


The wait is over, though, as the first game of the NBA Championship begins tonight.


I have a player prop that I've wagered on for this game. It's included in the column that I wrote for The Sporting Tribune, where I also do a full breakdown, discuss the stats/analytics through various matchups and give a series prop bet.


You can check all of that out here: https://t.co/XYz0m5CQ65


Furthermore, in the latest episode of "Burke's Beat," I'm joined by NBA Analyst Jacob Roach. Him and I share our predictions for the Finals, discuss the impact of Kristaps Porzingis' return and plenty more.



MLB Bet:


Rockies @ Cardinals


The 34-year-old Sonny Gray has been a revelation for St. Louis.


With an ERA of 3.00 and an xFIP of 2.49 - the man has been beyond efficient.


His WHIP is 1.05 and he has a strikeout to walk percentage of 27%, which an increase of about eight percentage points from his previous career high in 2020.


Gray is coming off a shaky outing in Philadelphia where he surrendered 4 ER on 5 hits throughout 5 IP. Despite that, his FIP resulted to being 0.94 and his xFIP 2.06.


His stat line should finish very different after facing tonight's opponent.


Colorado's lineup ranks second-worst in weighted runs created plus versus right-handed pitching (80). Not much has altered recently, either - as they rank 28th in wRC+ vs RHP over the past two weeks.


On the other hand, the Cardinals have been thriving against righties.


Overall they are 8th in wRC+ (106), but over the past couple of weeks have climbed to 4th (116).


Plus, they are 3rd in ISO (Isolated Power) against RHP (.197).


Cal Quantrill is the arm they are set to face.


Quantrill's numbers aren't too bad, but there are slight concerns.


His ERA is 3.83, but his xFIP displays 4.25. He's also walking 3.31 batters per nine innings and has a 4.51 SIERA (Skill interactive ERA).


If St. Louis can inflict sufficient damage on Quantrill early, they'll have an opportunity to feast on the league's weakest bullpen, which boasts a 5.24 earned run average.


Taking a piece of the Cards' runline is the play to make. Currently, BetRivers has the best price in the state of Illinois.


Play: Cardinals -1.5 (+104); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.04



KEEP ON YOUR RADAR:


Tanner Houck opposing the Chicago White Sox.


A couple weeks back on "Burke's Beat," I dished out Houck at the price of 60/1 to win AL Cy Young. He's now listed around 10/1! Hopefully you were able to get a piece of the action around the same odds I snagged.


The wind is blowing out at Guaranteed Rate Field tonight, but Houck has been able to limit his HR/FB ratio to just 2%.


The price to back Houck and company has gotten out of hand so that's why I'm staying away. But I'll certainly be keeping tabs on this matchup.


Let's see if Houck can tally a win against the worst team in the big leagues.

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