After a 1-1 effort last night, I'm hoping we can finally get back into the winning column with a few plays this evening. Below, you will only see one wager listed. That is because, going forward, I will be contributing to Ben Fawkes' Substack. Ben is a former colleague of mine and one of the sharpest reporters in the sports betting world. Make sure you follow his / my content on his Substack (https://t.co/6UrmMkLibm) and also on Twitter (@BFawkes22).
Let's dive in...
Vasilije Micic Prop
Bet you guys didn’t see this one coming, eh? How about betting on the 30-year old rookie? The man has been having a tremendous month and has been very relied upon by this Hornets team. Throughout six games in March, he’s averaged about 14 points on 43.7% shooting.
His offensive production has increased extremely over this span. The main reason being because Charlotte has been missing several pieces. LaMelo Ball, Cody Martin, Seth Curry, Mark Williams and Bryce McGowens will continue to be out. And Tre Mann is listed as questionable.
Micic has clearly taken advantage of these opportunities and has run with them. His points prop tonight is listed at 10.5 with -125 juice to the over. He’s gone over this mark in all six games this month.
I believe he has a great chance to do it again versus this Grizzlies unit. Remember, Memphis is the most injured team in the league and are playing on the second-leg of a back-to-back, so expect some defensive regression out of them tonight.
On the offensive side, Micic is spread out fairly evenly:
35% of attempts from 3pt - he’s making 26%
34% of attempts at the rim - he’s making 37%
31% of attempts from mid range - he’s making 67%
The Grizzlies actually have a pretty strong defense, but, again - they could be weary tonight.
They allow the 24th most shot attempts at the rim (36%) and opponents are making 63% of those looks. From mid range is where they do best - allowing just 27% of shots there (5th) and a success rate of 41.5% (6th). But, from three-point land is where they suffer. Over 37% of their opponent’s releases come from deep (21st) and they are connecting on 38.4% of them (26th).
There’s not really that much of a statistical approach that jumps off the page and incentivizes you to run to the counter and back Micic. Rather, it’s more of the necessity the Hornets have of him conducting this offense while other players are hurt, and recognizing the potentially tough spot for his opponent.
And, just for reference, in his first game with Charlotte - back on February 10th - he scored 18 points on 61.5% shooting against the Grizzlies. Let’s hope Micic delivers once again.
Play: Vasilije Micic Over 10.5 Points (-125); Risk 1.25 units to win 1.00
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