Knicks @ Warriors
There is no question that New York is one of the better defenses in the Association - ranking 8th in defensive points per 100 possessions allowed (113.3) and 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed (54.6%).
Someone who has been a focal point of that stout defensive effort - when available - is OG Anunoby. He was acquired by the Knicks, from the Raptors, at the beginning of January. New York is 15-2 straight up when he has played for them, limiting opponents to just 99 points per game in that span.
Without him in the lineup, which occurred from January 29th to March 10th - the Knicks went 8-10 straight up and surrendered 106 ppg in that span.
According to cleaningtheglass.com, Anunoby has the best defensive rating on the team as he is -18 at pts/poss allowed and -9.6% in eFG% allowed.
Clearly, Anunoby benefits this team greatly, and, unfortunately for New York, he will be out tonight due to injury management.
The market has moved the Warriors from their opening number of -4.5, to now as high as -6. I don’t believe that the movement solely revolves around the absence of Anunoby, but missing him certainly does not help.
This will be the Knicks third-straight road game in a span of five days; and they still have the reigning champion Denver Nuggets to look forward to before their trip ends.
The Warriors dominated this group when they last met on February 29th, at Madison Square Garden, winning 110-99. Anunoby was not playing in that game, nor Andrew Wiggins for Golden State. Wiggins is averaging 15 ppg in his last four spots.
All of this leads me to backing the Warriors over their team total of 108.5 (-115). They got over this mark against this same unit not too long ago, have reinforcements to help scoring and face a team in a potentially tiring spot. I wouldn’t have minded laying the points with Golden State, but the spread has moved a tad too aggressively for me to want to get involved at this point. So I’ll stick with the betting the team total for now, and look to live bet the home team if a better opportunity should present itself mid-game.
Play: Warriors Team Total Over 108.5 (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
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