I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend and was able to see some profit on the diamond and elsewhere!
We're coming off of a 2-2 performance yesterday. We had some tough luck, unfortunately, with both of our losses featuring teams that blew 3-0 leads.
Hopefully our luck turns around this evening with the pair of plays that I have...
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Despite winning their last 5/6 games - Toronto finds themselves in the underdog role against Baltimore.
Kevin Gausman gets the opportunity to prove those odds wrong as he will be starting for the home team.
Over his last six games, Gausman has allowed 12 earned runs. That’s including a game versus Minnesota in which he surrendered six ER.
In that same time frame his xFIP has averaged out at 2.66.
Overall his ERA is 4.14, however his FIP is 3.11.
Plus, his batting average of balls in play is .350, which appears high considering the underlying metrics indicate better days ahead.
We should attribute that to misfortunes and expect better results going forward.
The Orioles have been a top-10 team in weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitching, but Gausman should be able to maintain enough to give his offense a chance.
That lineup will be facing righty Grayson Rodriguez.
He’s got a 3.53 ERA and FIP of 3.44. Over the last four games, though, his xFIP has measured out to 4.58.
Also, he’s prone to walking batters (3.71 BB/9) and slacks in producing ground balls (33.6%).
The Blue Jays are 12th in wRC+ vs RHP (101), but over the last two weeks have soared in that department ranking 2nd (126).
This is a solid bargain being offered by the books and I’m going to buy into it.
Play: Blue Jays Moneyline (+100); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.00
Padres @ Angels
The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games and are currently riding a five-game losing streak.
The betting market appears to believe the streak will persist as Circa Sportsbook opened the Padres as -130 favorites, but can now be viewed as high as -146.
The knuckle-ball-throwing Matt Waldron is scheduled to start for San Diego. Despite his 4.26 ERA, there are signs of encouragement as he posts an expected ERA of 3.53 and a FIP of 3.46.
He’s also limited the long ball with just a 8.7% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio.
He’s facing a Los Angeles offense that over the past couple of weeks has ranked 29th in wRC+ vs RHP (65).
Not only is their offense bottom-tier, but their bullpen holds the second-highest ERA in baseball, too, with a mark of 4.85.
Furthermore, their starting pitcher - Tyler Anderson - is displaying signs of inevitable regression.
The southpaw’s ERA is listed at 2.47, but his xERA is 4.62, his FIP is 4.56 and his xFIP is 4.99.
Plus, his skill interactive ERA (SIERA - a backward-looking ERA estimator) is 5.03.
There should be a red flag constantly waving around Anderson.
The Padres have underperformed against lefties this season - sitting 16th in wRC+ the last month against them - but tonight provides a golden opportunity to boost those stats.
Let’s bank on that losing streak continuing for the Angels.
Play: Padres Moneyline (-138); Risk 2.07 units to win 1.50
MLB Record: 42-37-1 (+.14)
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