Wednesday Recap:
We were two outs away from a profitable evening until the umpire in the KC/ARI game missed the strike three call. This would have been the second out, with the third being throwing out the runner stealing.
The game should've been over after this:
Instead, the pitch was called a ball and Arizona ended up scoring five runs in that inning. Truly unbelievable.
One of my biggest pet peeves in baseball is when umpires miss obvious strike calls because their attention is diverted by the catcher moving to try to throw out the runner stealing second. They forget to make the correct call and instead focus more on the action down the diamond.
Another annoying beat to add to the laundry list.
We end up 2-4 (-0.56) on the evening. Fading the White Sox in a big way helped limit the damage to some degree. Let's try to make more of it back tonight.
Burke's Bets
Gavin Williams Under 5.5 K's (-110)
The 24-year-old has started four games this year.
In that span, he's pitched 18 innings and has accumulated a 4.50 ERA, a 5.30 xERA, a 3.25 FIP and a 4.99 xFIP.
Further concerns arise from his batting average on balls in play, which stands at .339, and his left-on-base percentage, which is 66.7%.
Additionally, alarms are raised by his WHIP of 1.56, a hard-hit percentage of 44%, and an xwOBA of .357.
Williams has already faced the Tigers, too.
Back on July 8th, he put together a solid performance throwing 5.1 scoreless innings, while allowing four hits, one walk and five strikeouts.
Despite that, I'm looking to fade him to a certain extent. Clearly, it's with his strikeouts.
5.5 appears a tad bullish for a pitcher who has yet to surpass this mark and doesn't present as a premier strikeout threat.
He's managed five K's twice, and two K's in the other spots.
His strikeout-to-walk ratio, at 7.2%, and his SwStr% (percentage of strikes swung at and missed), at 8.2%, are both well below the league average.
Detroit does remain toward the bottom of the barrel in terms of strikeout rate versus RHP, however they have shown slight improvement.
All season their K-rate displays 24%, but over the past month it's dipped to 22.6%.
Let's look to attack this under and hopefully see Williams exit the game early.
Play: Gavin Williams Under 5.5 K's (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Luis Severino Under 5.5 K's (-135)
The veteran right-hander posts a 3.58 ERA, a 3.72 xERA and a 4.41 xFIP.
Despite his underlying metrics expressing a bit of concern, he may be able to avoid that against a Braves offense that is struggling against RHP.
Although, there is familiarity with this Atlanta lineup against Severino.
On May 12th, Severino pitched five innings, allowed four hits, three walks and four strikeouts. His xFIP came out to 4.84 for that outing.
He is averaging 4.6 K's per start and has gone over 5.5 in just 6/19 appearances.
Offensively, the Braves do hoist red flags in their K-rate against RHP, with their mark being 24.3%.
However, Severino is posting a career low with his SwStr%, which sits at 8.4%.
This seems like another generous line that the books are offering and I'm going against it.
Play: Luis Severino Under 5.5 K's (-135); Risk 1.00 unit to win .74
ADDED PLAY:
A’s @ Angels
Oakland’s offense has abruptly emerged over the course of the summer.
Since June 1st, they sit atop the charts against southpaws with a 160 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .239 ISO and a .911 OPS.
This evening they’ll face a nuanced lefty in Kenny Rosenberg.
He’s only pitched 10 innings throughout two starts.
His first outing came against the Mariners, in which he allowed six earned runs on eight hits during six innings of play.
Following that, he squared off against the A’s. Rosenberg managed to pitch four innings, allowing just one earned run on four hits. However, his BABIP resulted in being .333 and his xFIP 5.00.
Don’t be shocked to see Oakland take advantage this time around.
On the other side, we see Ross Stripling getting the nod for the road team.
The right-hander enters this contest with a 5.82 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, .359 BABIP and a 1.60 WHIP.
Plus, his left on base percentage is extremely low at 56.4% and he’s surrendered 17 ER throughout his previous four outings.
The Angels have not provided the most efficiency on the offensive front this season, as they feature a 90 wRC+, .672 OPS and a .139 ISO against RHP. But that could easily alter versus Stripling.
Weather wise it looks like the wind will be blowing out towards center field, which should aid both teams.
I’m expecting plenty of runs to be scored in the last game of tonight’s card and I would play it up to 9.5 if that's the only offer available.
Play: OAK/LAA Over 9 (-120); Risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
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