CBB - Texas @ Oklahoma
The 11th ranked Sooners will seek their third win in a row as they host their rival, Longhorns, this evening.
Oklahoma has failed to beat Texas in their past five meetings, but the market is indicating that the streak has a solid chance of ending.
The Sooners opened as low as -3.5, and we now see them laying upwards of -5.5; however, DraftKings has the best price at -4.5 (-112).
When we compare these two squads we can see that the offenses are fairly similar:
Effective Field Goal %:
Oklahoma: 55% (31st)
Texas: 54.9% (34th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency:
Oklahoma: 114.5 (58th)
Texas 117.2 (32nd)
The bigger difference, though, resides on the defensive end:
Defensive Effective Field Goal %:
Oklahoma: 44..8% (10th)
Texas: 47.5% (63rd)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency:
Oklahoma: 96.2 (21st)
Texas: 101.6 (71st)
*Stats courtesy of Barttorvik.com
Also, a big part of my handicap, especially in college hoops, revolves around the charity stripe. The Sooners have an offensive free throw rate that ranks 143rd and a defensive FTR that puts them at 96th. As for the Longhorns - their offensive FTR puts them 244th and their defensive FTR lists them 195th.
Oklahoma, on average, attempts just under three more free throws per game and commits about two less fouls per contest.
The Sooners also do a very good job of limiting their opponents three point success as they are allowing them to connect on just 27.7% of attempts (5th).
When you factor those numbers in, along with an understanding that this game is being played in Norman - then it shows clear advantages for the home team.
And one other nod goes to Oklahoma for their effort on the boards. The Sooners rack up around 27 defensive and 11 offensive rebounds per game. The Longhorns snag 25 defensively and 10 offensively each contest. Barttorvik ranks Oklahoma 58th in offensive rebound percentage and 39th in defensive rebound percentage. Their opponents sits at 109th and 203rd, respectively.
Play: Oklahoma -4.5 (-112); Risk 1.12 units to win 1.00
NHL - Blues @ Flames
Calgary Goaltender Jacob Markstom is set to make his return to the net after missing the last three games with a lower-body injury.
That is great news for this struggling Flames team that has dropped their past two contests.
Markstrom ranks second in the NHL in GSAx, has a 2.59 GAA and a save percentage of 91.2%. He’s won his last five out of six starts.
The veteran Jordan Binnigton is projected to oppose him in the Blues’ net.
Binnington has been fairly solid this season (10th in GSAx, 2.98 GAA, 90.6% SV), but has struggled on the road. Away from home ice he is 4-8-1, has a 3.31 GAA and has saved just 89.5% of the shots he’s seen.
St. Louis has already defeated Calgary on their home ice this season. Back on October 26th, the Blues won 3-0, but Markstrom played a strong game having stopped 32/34 shots. His teammates didn’t do enough to support him.
Perhaps that will change this time around, especially with the spark of their starting goaltender returning to the mix.
The Flames have better numbers than the Blues in terms of expected goals for per 60 minutes, expected goals allowed per 60 minutes, shots per game, shots allowed per game, corsi for, corsi against and also expected goals for percentage.
xGF/60: CGY (2.53) | STL: (2.48)
xGA/60: CGY (2.72) | STL: (2.92)
Shots per 60: CGY (30) | STL (28)
SA per 60: CGY (29) | STL (32)
CF/60: CGY (60) | STL (53)
CA/60: CGY (60.5) | STL (63)
xGF%: CGY 48.15 (24th) | STL 45.97 (29th)
Unfortunately, it is a steep price to lay on the favorite. The Flames are, at the cheapest, -160 on the moneyline. Their puckline is set at +150 if you believe they can win this game by two or more goals.
The +150 is certainly appealing, however, even though Calgary, metrically, is the better team - it’s not by much. And while I do believe that having Markstrom back is a boost, there is always a possibility that he could be a tad shaky out of the gates as he brushes some rust off. So I’d prefer to just have to sweat this team winning outright as opposed to doing so by multiple goals.
So instead of risking 1.60 units to win 1.00 - like I typically would - I am going to risk a flat 1.00 unit to win 0.62.
Clearly I want to get involved in this Flames team, but don’t think they are necessarily worth laying that high of a price. To each their own, but that’s how I’m going to approach this one.
Play: Flames ML (-160); Risk 1.00 units to win 0.62
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