We’ve got a big night of sports ahead of us, and I’ve dabbled in three different ones.
For tonight’s action in college hoops, check out my article I did for The Sporting Tribune, or listen to the second-half of my podcast “Burke’s Beat” so you can hear my thoughts, along with Professional Handicapper Bruce Marshall’s.
Side note, big props to Bruce for calling Clemson outright !
As for my play on the diamond, you can find that breakdown on Ben Fawkes' Substack. Ben does excellent work dishing out key info for the biggest events. He lists betting splits, shares the bookmaker's perspective and much more.
Let’s get into the plays I have for the Association…
Suns @ Thunder
This will be the third and final meeting of the regular season between these two teams. Oklahoma City defeated Phoenix in both of those prior matchups down in Arizona.
On November 12th, the Thunder won 111-99 and then, on March 3rd, they came out on top 118-110.
Devin Booker did not play in either of those games. He is expected to play tonight.
On the other side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 35 points in each of those contests. He is doubtful for tonight’s affair with a quad contusion.
OKC is 0-2 when SGA does not play. SGA, clearly, is their most important player; he has the highest efficiency differential (+11.6) and expected wins added (+25) on the team.
Without him, along with going against a healthy, vengeance-seeking Suns team, the Thunder may be in for a rough evening. This will also be their third game in four nights.
And Kevin Durant is hitting his stride and then some as of late. The future hall of famer is shooting just under 68% throughout his last three games.
I recognize that OKC has been a fun and exciting unit, especially at home, paired with the understanding that Phoenix can be disappointing from time to time. But, if there is a situation to back the Suns, I have to imagine it’s now.
Play: Suns ML (-110) @ Thunder; Risk 2.20 units to win 2.00
Knicks @ Spurs
Down in San Antonio the Spurs are seeking their first three-game winning streak of the season. Having beat the Suns and then the Jazz, they can complete this feat by overcoming the Knicks tonight.
They are currently catching nine-and-a-half. So, realistically, no - I don’t think they will win, but I do believe they have a strong chance of covering.
More importantly, though, I believe they will have great opportunities for scoring. And that leads us to the direction in which my wager is residing. I am zoning in on this total of 213.
Seldom have the New York Knicks and betting a total to go over been in the same conversation this year, at least for me. Tonight, that changes.
OG Anunoby will be absent yet again for the Knickerbockers. He is by far their best defender, and when he doesn’t play the impact is felt.
He is at the top of the list in terms of defensive points per 100 possessions allowed (-17.1) and effective field goal percentage allowed (-8.9%).
The Spurs are by no means an impressive offense (26th in Pts/Poss and 25th in eFG%), so they need all the assistance they can get. Plus, New York is surrendering more than six points per game on average on the road in comparison to when they are playing at Madison Square Garden.
San Antonio ranks 3rd in pace of play, too. The Knicks are last, but, against a Spurs defense that is 24th in defensive eFG% and 22nd in Pts/Poss, I don’t believe that will matter too much.
The weakest area for both of these team’s defenses is defending the three ball. Coach Popovich’s bunch ranks 25th (38.3%) and Coach Thibodeau’s is 18th (37.2%).
The more triples the better. Let’s hope that’s the case.
Play: Knicks / Spurs Over 213 (-105); Risk 2.10 to win 2.00
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