We've got exciting times ahead with the postseason looming large! This is one of my favorite portions of the NBA season for betting.
I'll have plenty more thoughts on tomorrow's Eastern Conference play-in games, along with the already-established series and their respective props, which will be featured at thesportingtribune.com. So make sure to keep an eye out for that.
Before we get into tonight's action - let me remind you that my NBA plays are powered by the sports betting app "Rithmm."
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Here are the bets I'm rolling with tonight...
Austin Reaves Points Prop
Reaves has been particularly fond of his matchups against the Pelicans this season.
In four games, Reaves has tallied 20, 27, 20, and 17 points respectively. So he’s at an average of 21 ppg against them. He’s shooting 62.5% from the floor and 45.5% from three-point land when facing their defense.
I’m not betting his prop blindly just because he has gone over it in each of the four spots, but rather because there is solid reasoning for why it’s occurring and the market has yet to adjust accordingly.
42% of his looks are coming from deep and the Pelicans are a defense that has allowed the second-most attempts from there this season (41.1%).
Furthermore, Reaves has been incredibly efficient with his shots from mid range. 34% of his attempts are released from that area and he is making 48% of them, which is good enough to put him in the 81st percentile for his position group.
When acknowledging his matchups, we’ve usually seen Reaves and CJ McCollum guarding one another.
McCollum has not been a lockdown defender to say the least. He has a defensive effective field goal percentage of +2.1% - that puts him in the 15th percentile.
And when McCollum is not matched up against Reaves - typically Jose Alvarado takes control of those duties.
Now, Alvarado is a great, speedy defender. However, there is a sizable mismatch. Reaves stands at 6-foot-5 and Alvarado is listed at 6-foot flat.
Alvarado’s defensive prowess doesn’t necessarily translate against an opposing player that is a handful of inches taller than him.
These reasons are why we have seen success from Reaves against New Orleans - and I believe that will persist tonight as well.
Play: Austin Reaves Over 14.5 Points (-120); Risk 1.00 unit to win 0.83
Available at DraftKings
Warriors @ Kings
There has been steady movement within the betting market toward Golden State for the past two days.
Circa Sportsbook opened the Warriors as a one-and-a-half point favorite, with their moneyline originating at -120.
Just a couple of hours before tipoff and we can see that Circa has moved Golden State to -3 and their ML to -155.
The best ML price I have seen available is -148, which is available at several outlets in the state of Illinois.
These teams met four times during the regular season. Both winning twice, each home and away.
Three out of the four games came before the month of December, though, and the most recent occurred at the end of January. Certainly a lot has changed since then.
Most notably, the loss of guards Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk on the side of Sacramento.
March 18th was the last game for Huerter, and March 29th was the final spot for Monk.
The Kings have played eight games since they both fell absent from the lineup. They went 3-5 during that span, averaging only 110 ppg.
Their season average is listed at 116.6 ppg.
If we look at Cleaningtheglass.com - Sacramento ranked 23rd in eFG% (52.7%) in that span of time without both players.
Leading up to the absence of both guys - the Kings featured an offense that was 11th in eFG% (56.1%).
Evidently - missing Huerter and Monk has damaged this team.
It won’t get any easier in a do or die scenario versus Steph Curry and company. The Warriors finished the regular season 10th in defensive eFG% (54.2%) and 12th in offensive eFG% (56%).
The Kings will more than likely find it difficult to limit their opponent's scoring efforts, considering Sacramento finished the season 21st in defensive eFG% (55.9%).
The Kings have been a very infuriating bunch all year. Don’t get me wrong - the Warriors have driven me crazy from time to time (i.e., Friday night), but these are the spots in which their talented, veteran-laden group can prosper. I believe they’ll do just that this evening.
Play: Warriors ML (-148); Risk 2.50 units to win 1.69
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