It feels like yesterday I was dishing out some of these futures bets before the season began, but, per usual, time flies during the NFL season and here we are looking ahead to Week 11.
As we make our way into the deeper portion of the season, I thought it would be a good time to give an update on my futures bets I gave out before the year, and also during.
I released four bets before the season started:
NYJ under 9.5 wins (+125)
ATL under 8.5 wins (+110)
WSH under 6.5 wins (-118)
Trevor Lawrence MVP (17/1)
And then, after a couple weeks into the season, I gave out these plays:
CAR under 5.5 wins (+125)
Mike McDaniel COY (+850)
So let’s dive into those plays, give an update as to how they are looking and see if there are any opportunities to jump in elsewhere.
MVP:
Trevor Lawrence MVP (17/1)
Yeah, let’s just call a spade a spade. Trevor Lawrence is not winning the MVP Award. It was a nice idea prior to the start of the season, but now it’s looking like more of a funny afterthought. He hasn’t been terrible, nor have the Jags, but he’s just nowhere near the numbers a player needs to have to be considered for this market (2,210 yards, 67.3% CMP, 9 TD - 6 INT).
So instead of spending this portion whining about Lawrence, let’s ask ourselves who may be worth taking a flyer on.
First, let’s begin by looking at a more analytical approach.
Here are the rankings, courtesy of rbsdm.com, for adjusted EPA/Play among quarterbacks:
Adjusted EPA/Play:
Brock Purdy
Dak Prescott
Patrick Mahomes
Tua Tagovailoa
Josh Allen
Jalen Hurts
C.J. Stroud
Jared Goff
So why is this measurement notable? Actually, it’s more than notable, it's imperative to be cognizant of considering EPA has been the metric that has coincided most commonly with the league’s MVP.
After Adrian Peterson claimed the MVP in 2012, each winner has been a quarterback. And in that span, each QB who has won it has also led the league in EPA, with the exception of Cam Newton in 2015.
But do we really think Brock Purdy will be the league’s MVP when all is said and done? I find it hard to believe.
We still have seven weeks to go and he may not be at the top of the list when all is said and done, or, we may have another exception like in 2015.
Let’s go ahead and cross him off the list, along with other players we don’t foresee having a legit shot.
Those other QBs would be Josh Allen and Dak Prescott.
Among the remaining five candidates in the EPA rankings, let’s see how they stack up within more generic stat lines. As you can see next to their names, they are assigned points. 1st place in each category receives 5 points, 2nd place gets 4 points and so on and so forth…
Passing Yards:
5 - Stroud (2,626)
4 - Tagovailoa (2,609)
3 - Goff (2,507)
2 - Mahomes (2,442)
1 - Hurts (2,347)
Completion %:
5 - Tagovailoa (69.5%)
4 - Hurts (68.9%)
3 - Mahomes (68.6%)
2 - Goff (68.4%)
1 - Stroud (61.6%)
Passing Touchdowns:
5 - Tagovailoa (19)
4 - Mahomes (17)
3 - Hurts (15)
3 - Stroud (15)
1 - Goff (14)
Interceptions:
5 - Stroud (2 Int)
4 - Goff (5 Int)
3 - Tagovailoa (7 Int)
1 - Mahomes (8 Int)
1 - Hurts (8 Int)
QBR:
5 - Mahomes (72.9)
4 - Goff (66.3)
3 - Hurts (66)
2 - Tagovailoa (65)
1 - Stroud (63.3)
Here is how the QB’s rank among one another with those assigned points:
1. Tagovailoa (19 pts)
T-2. Mahomes (15 pts)
T-2. Stroud (15 pts)
3. Goff (14 pts)
4. Hurts (12 pts)
Let’s go ahead and cross another name off the list…
I’m crossing off the man at the bottom - Jalen Hurts. The Eagles still haven’t played a clean game yet, and neither has Hurts. That brutal loss against the Jets still lingers in people’s minds and they won’t forget it when considering MVP.
That leaves us with four options:
Tua Tagovailoa
Patrick Mahomes
C.J. Stroud
Jared Goff
Mahomes is the consensus favorite among sportsbooks, but do we really think he’ll win another MVP? Eventually yes, but this year after he just won one last year? Probably not.
I do believe voter fatigue is a factor and that he sets the bar so high for himself that even when he has a great season it doesn’t impress us sometimes because we’ve become accustomed to it.
So based on those reasons and the fact that he presents the shortest price - I’m out.
Let’s discuss C.J. Stroud.
Only one rookie has ever won NFL MVP, and that was Browns running back Jim Brown, who claimed it in 1957.
Is it possible for a rookie to win it again? Sure it is, but I’m just not very confident it’s going to be this season with Stroud. I love his play and I think he’ll be a top QB in this league for the foreseeable future, but I just think it’s a tough ask for voters to side with the rookie.
Tagovailoa and Goff will finish with better records and will also have similar if not better statistical numbers by the end of the year.
If you want to bet a member of the Texans for an award, then it should be DeMeco Ryans for Coach of the Year, which I will discuss extensively later in this article.
Thus, we have Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff remaining.
The best price of Tagovailoa is +700, which is being offered at PointsBet. Although, if you’ve won a single bet in your life you’ve probably been limited by them and can’t wager there. So, the next best number is +600 and is being dealt at multiple shops.
As for Goff - it appears 33/1 is the top price available, which is being offered at BetMGM.
According to nfelo.com the Lions have the 12th easiest strength of scheduling going forward, whereas the Dolphins have the 30th easiest remaining SOS.
That’s certainly a tad alarming for backing Tua, however, if he is able to thrive throughout that difficult stretch, then that will provide a better argument for him winning this award.
With that being said, the way that I am going to approach this, though, is by betting both of these quarterbacks. Tagovailoa will most likely finish with the best numbers, but Goff may finish with the better record. And the longer the season goes on, the shorter Goff’s MVP odds will be.
If somehow the race gets narrowed down to these two gentlemen, then we will be sitting more than pretty. Let’s hope these fellas continue to ball out.
Plays:
Tagovailoa to win MVP; risk 1 unit to win 6 units
Goff to win MVP; risk 1 unit to win 33 units
Coach of the Year:
My Original Bet: Mike McDaniel COY (+850)
Coach of the year is a market that is appearing to be very fluid for the remainder of the year.
After week 2 of this season, following their win on Sunday Night Football against the Patriots - I took Dolphins Coach Mike McDaniel at +850 to win this award.
The following week they proceeded to put up 70 points against the Broncos and I was feeling tremendous.
Unfortunately, since that point they have dropped three games. The losses haven’t been embarrassing, per se, but it’s a little concerning because they’ve all been against top teams (BUF, PHI & KC). So there’s part of the equation to where you understand and cut them some slack because of the opponents’ skill level, but, also, there is a bit of questioning as to how legit McDaniel’s team really is if they can’t knock off at least one of those squads.
Regardless, his chance of winning this award is still alive. And a big reason for that is the dominance of his offense.
Miami leads the NFL in yards per game (435.3) and points per game (31.7).
Looking down the line, I believe they have a path that leads them to at least a 12-win season. Plus, they currently sit atop their division, with a chance of claiming the number one seed in the AFC.
However, in order to do that, they still need to overcome some tough teams. The Dolphins will be battle tested at home against Dallas in Week 16, on the road in Week 17 @ Baltimore, and then a division showdown to conclude their season at home vs Buffalo.
There is still hope for Coach McDaniel, but I’m not willing to promote a wager on him at this moment in time, much like I was heading into the third week of the season.
The best number I’ve seen on him this week, in Illinois, is +650, which is being offered at FanDuel.
The reason I’m not recommending a play on him doesn't have as much to do with the lack of value compared to what you could’ve gotten, although that does play a small part, but rather it’s because of the competition.
Lions HC Dan Campbell is now your frontrunner (+150 best number at DK), with Texans HC DeMeco Ryans right behind (+330 best number at CZ).
Should we look to bet and/or hedge with either of those two coaches?
Let’s begin with Campbell.
His story is great, his attitude is entertaining and inspiring, but his price being offered is not. I can’t find the incentive to bet on this market with the favorite at just +150 in week 11.
Will his team end up with the best record and playoff position among the other two candidates? Yes, most likely. But, we also have to recognize the weakness of the NFC North and the NFC as a whole, in comparison to the AFC.
The Vikings have been a fun story the last two weeks with Josh Dobbs taking over, but let’s not kid ourselves - they are not legit. The Dolphins are in one of the tougher divisions - the AFC East. Although, with Buffalo continuing to underachieve that argument may not hold up much longer.
As for Houston (5-4), they are only a game behind the AFC South-leading Jaguars (6-3).
But, the biggest thing going for Coach Ryans, right now, is the element of exceeding expectations. With Miami and Detroit - they were expected to make the playoffs and to have a solid chance at winning their respective divisions. But, for Houston, a lot of people - myself included - figured they’d be fortunate to win five games.
This is now looking like a playoff team! It’s absolutely absurd that Coach Ryans, in his first season, with a roster that finished 31st last year, and a rookie QB, is in the playoff hunt and even in the sweepstakes to take the division.
This award is built for guys succeeding in situations precisely like the one Coach Ryans is in.
Even if they end up with 9-10 wins, which I do believe is plausible, I think that will be enough to warrant the award of Coach of the Year, over the other candidates who’s teams will finish with double-digit wins. Because, again, the Lions and Dolphins were expected to succeed - but nobody envisioned this type of success down in Houston.
So what I’m going to do is take a slight hedge on my original COY bet (Mike McDaniel +850) and add a wager on DeMeco Ryans COY at the price of +330.
If it ends up being Dan Campbell and I lose out on the other two bets so be it. That’s a risk I’m willing to take. McDaniel has the nod over Campbell in terms of a tougher path and having the best offense in the NFL, and Ryans has the exceeding expectations narrative going for him.
I am fully aware that taking +330 is very late in the game for Ryans, considering what was being offered for him just a few weeks ago. But, from my viewpoint, I am purely looking to give myself another out if it’s not going to be McDaniel. And, in my mind, Ryans presents the best option for that. And if I wait any longer, the price will probably continue to shrink. The Texans host the Cardinals in their next matchup, then face a Jags team they already beat, then host one of the worst defenses in the Denver Broncos and then take on Zach Wilson and the Jets and Will Levis and the Titans, both of which are very beatable.
So I’ll play this now while I can still get an appealing price for my hedge.
Play:
DeMeco Ryans COY (+330); risk 1 unit to win 3.30
Win Totals:
Glossary:
*W = WIN
*L = LOSS
*T = TOSS-UP
Jets Under 9.5 Wins (+125)
Current Record: 4-5
Remaining Schedule:
@ Bills (L)
Vs Dolphins (L)
Vs Falcons (T)
Vs Texans (T)
@ Dolphins (L)
Vs Commanders (W)
@ Browns (L)
@ Patriots (W)
My Projected Finish: 7-10
Adjusted Win Totals Available:
Over 7.5 (+130) CZ
Under 7.5 (-139) BR
This was my first futures bet I made over the summer. So clearly it was wagered with the assumption that Aaron Rodgers was going to be the full time quarterback of the Jets. As we all know - that trajectory was altered in the first game of the season.
I thought the Jets had a very tough schedule to begin their 2023 campaign and, with the assumption Zach Wilson will continue to be their QB for a majority of the rest of the season, I still believe it to be rather difficult.
As you can see, I laid out the rest of their schedule and gave my opinion on what I think the end result will be. I am guessing the Jets end their season with a record of 7-10, thus cashing our under 9.5 wins bet and also agreeing with the current market that New York will stay under their adjusted win total of 7.5.
Does that mean I recommend you go out there and bet on it? No. While I do think they fail to get 8+ wins, there isn’t enough of an edge to warrant chasing this bet at this point of the year. There were many opportunities to get a better number and right now is not one of those times.
So I will sit back and hope this bet continues to look better and better as the weeks go by.
Falcons Under 8.5 Wins (+110)
Current Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule:
Vs Saints (T)
@ Jets (T)
Vs Bucs (W)
@ Panthers (W)
Vs Colts (T)
@ Bears (T)
@ Saints (L)
My Projected Finish: 8-9
Adjusted Win Totals Available:
Over 7.5 (-110) DK / BR
Under 7.5 (EV) FD
Taylor Heinicke or Desmond Ridder? According to Head Coach Arthur Smith, it’s a tad too “premature” to name his starter going forward. The Falcons are heading into their bye week and will take that time to assess the starting QB situation.
Heinicke did suffer a low-grade hamstring injury in their past game against the Cardinals, so Ridder had to sub back in. Afterwards, Coach Smith said he had some positives to take away from Ridder’s performance.
So my guess is Atlanta will go back to Ridder, but that is just a hunch. At least he was able to get the Falcons in the victory column several times.
Regardless, does it really matter for our bet? Eh, probably not. The Falcons are a team that is solely relying on their rushing efforts and that is a main reason as to why I bet the under on their win total in the first place.
Over the summer, I questioned how anyone could trust this team to win 9+ games with an unknown commodity in Ridder. I was shocked and wondered whether or not I missed something that indicated he was turning into a reliable candidate under center.
Clearly, my prognosis was correct - because the guy can’t play.
However, there are some winnable spots throughout the remainder of their schedule, and I’ll even give them the benefit of the doubt in some of those toss-up situations.
But even doing so, I still have this team finishing with 8 wins. The market has their adjusted win total at 7.5. Given my current position, there is no reason for me to take any action. And if it comes down to the final game, I can always hedge off depending on what the odds are in their final game against the Saints.
For anyone out there who hasn’t bet this - I think this is a stay away spot. If they happen to get a win or two that bumps their win total back up to 8.5, then I would consider betting the under, but not at 7.5.
Commanders Under 6.5 Wins (-118)
Current Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule:
Vs NYG (W)
TNF @ DAL (L)
Vs MIA (L)
Post Bye Week @ LAR (T)
@ NYJ (T)
Vs SF (L)
Vs DAL (L)
My Projected Finish: 5-12
Adjusted Win Totals Available:
Over 6.5 (-115) DK
Under 6.5 (+110) CZ
This Commanders team is something else. To say they have been volatile would be an understatement.
I’m a little surprised we’re getting a better adjusted win total number on them in comparison to what I got over the summer. I guess that’s because they need just three more wins to eclipse it, while still having seven more games to go.
But those seven games are extremely difficult. I envision them being a favorite in only one spot - and that’s their next matchup vs the Giants. Otherwise, I believe they’ll be a dog in every other game.
The defense traded away their top edge rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Ron Rivera’s future is in serious jeopardy (putting it nicely) and Sam Howell is all over the place.
For anyone out there who has not bet into this specific market with Washington - I actually wouldn’t hate taking a piece of the under at plus money. As I listed above, Caesars is offering it at +110. I mean, I have them confidently winning only one game, and they need to get three in order to get 7+ wins. I just don’t see that happening.
So I still feel confidence in my original win total bet and would recommend fading them going forward.
Panthers Under 5.5 Wins (+125)
Current Record: 1-8
Remaining Schedule:
Vs DAL (L)
@ TEN (L)
@ TB (L)
@ NO (L)
Vs ATL (L)
Vs GB (T)
@ JAX (L)
Vs TB (T)
My Projected Finish: 2-15
Adjusted Win Totals Available:
Over 3.5 (-115) DK
Under 3.5 (+116) FD
Looking back at this bet, this seemed like stealing. I mean after two weeks of playing it was obvious this Panthers unit was going to be one of the worst in the NFL.
There were concerns with the offensive line, Rookie QB Bryce Young appeared undersized and unprepared for the big leagues and Head Coach Frank Reich’s legitimacy as a leader was under question.
Young, and the rest of the team, has shown little signs of improvement. Going forward they should continue to be an underdog in each and every game.
At best this team probably finishes with 3 wins. It’s tough to chase something that has dropped so much, though. Heck, even when I bet under 5.5 wins it was still a two-win difference from what was offered over the summer. So, ultimately, yes, I do believe they fail to get four or more wins, but I wouldn’t be sprinting to the window to bet on it. If you feel so inclined to do so, however, that’s the direction you’d have to consider.
Recap of Plays Made:
Tua Tagovailoa to win MVP (+600); risk 1 unit to win 6 units
Jared Goff to win MVP (33/1); risk 1 unit to win 33 units
DeMeco Ryans COY (+330); risk 1 unit to win 3.30 units
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