Jusuf Nurkic
Despite suffering injuries on injures, the 76ers have still maintained a solid defensive front. With that being said, though - there is an area in particular where they struggle. And if you followed my last bet that I had on Nurkic, then I’m sure you know where this is going.
Philly is vulnerable at the rim, especially without their big man Joel Embiid.
Opponents are taking a majority of shot selections (36.1%, 27th) near the bucket versus the Sixers. They are connecting on over 67% of those attempts (21st).
As we know, Nurkic loves to hang down there - as most big men do. He is taking 65% of his looks at the rim this season. Also, Philly ranks 28th in defensive free throw rate; so there is a chance that Nurkic could find himself taking frequent trips to the line this evening.
I made a similar bet the other day when Nurkic and the Suns faced the Hornets. In that matchup, Nurkic went 5-9 from the field, 3-7 at the charity stripe and ended with 13 points.
Much like Philadelphia - the defense of Charlotte falters near the rim (68% opponent FG%).
Now of course these are different teams, but the idea remains the same. Look to capitalize on unadjusted Nurkic props in advantageous settings. This is one of them. His points prop is listed at 10.5 with even money being dealt to the over.
My original handicap revolved solely around his points getting over that mark. However, upon further digging, I realized that his rebounds prop was listed at just 11.5. And then - after going even deeper - I recognized that the big man also does well in racking up the assists.
So this led me to seeing where his points+rebounds+assists combination prop was posted at.
25.5 with -110 juice to the over was the best price I saw.
Nurkic has gone over that combo mark of 25.5 in more games than he has for just his points prop of 10.5. In 34 of 64 games (53%) he has eclipsed 25.5 points, rebounds and assists.
We have already established that he has the edge in the scoring department for tonight’s matchup, but what about the other categories?
Well, overall this season - Nurkic is averaging 11 boards and about 4 dimes per contest. This month alone, those numbers have increased to about 15 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game.
The Sixers offense is struggling to produce points. They rank 26th in offensive effective field goal percentage (53.2%). Thus, we should expect a healthy dosage of missed shots and plenty of opportunities for Nurkic to snag some boards. And, not too much needs to be said about the assists, because a lot of that is reliant on situations and teammates. Well, luckily for Nurkic - he has Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to dish the rock to.
Tonight sets up well for the Suns’ center to pad his stats across the board, so let’s bank on that coming to fruition.
Play: Jusuf Nurkic Over 25.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
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