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  • Writer's pictureDanny Burke

Tonight's NBA Player Prop Bet

The Mavericks, as a whole, have been an up and down team. That’s just the nature of their roster. And Tim Hardaway Jr., is no exception to the volatility…at least as of late. 


Hardaway was averaging 18.5 points per game up until the month of March. However, over his last 10 games he is averaging just 8.4 points, while shooting 33% from the field, including 29.3% from deep. 


Head Coach Jason Kidd has mentioned how integral of a piece a player like Hardaway is to this team in order to help them compete for a championship, so his production is a necessity. And I believe we will see plenty more of it tonight against the Bulls.


Chicago has a defense that is allowing opponents to take about 42% of their shot attempts from deep - and that ranks them dead last in the NBA. Those same opponents are making over 37% of those looks, which ranks the Bulls 16th in accuracy allowed from three-point land. 


Hardaway is launching 58% of his shots from beyond the perimeter. When he faced Chicago back in November, he took 13 shots from there and connected on 7. He finished with 24 points. 


In his most recent effort, he dropped 17 points against the Pistons, in the state where he attended college, which was the University of Michigan. After the game he mentioned how playing in front of family and friends was good for him and his game. I believe that he will carry that momentum into tonight’s favorable matchup against the Bulls. Perhaps that outing in Detroit was exactly the spark he needed to get back into rhythm. 


The books have lowered his points prop to 9.5, with -115 being the lowest price I’ve seen on the over. Caesar’s had that listed, while a couple of other outlets had it at -120. 


This is a mark that he’s eclipsed in 50/61 games this season. That’s a rate of 82%! 


I’m looking to take advantage of the overly-adjusted market and hope to capitalize on his potential offensive success against a poor perimeter defense that this Chicago group features.


Play: Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 9.5 Points (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00


NBA record: 28-19 (+3.06)

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