We're coming off another 2-0 effort last night that included a winner in both the NBA and MLB.
DEN/MIN Over 205.5 (-110) W
Braves -1.5 (+114) vs Cubs W
For tonight's contests throughout the Association, I'm going to be approaching them from an in-game standpoint.
We'll already be sweating out our series bet on the Celtics covering -2.5 games (-170), so needing Boston to win outright will already be in our rooting interest.
Outside of the hardwood, my only betting action resides on the diamond.
Let's get into today's play...
3:40 p.m. ET - Reds @ Diamondbacks (-137)
This afternoon will feature the rubber-match between these two clubs. Arizona captured the first meeting (6-5) and then Cincinnati bounced back last night (6-2).
The market has shown initial support for the home team, moving them up to as high as -148 favorites.
There are several reasons why that is, and they all correlate with my handicap of wagering on them myself.
Andrew Abbott is taking the bump for the Reds today. Not only do some of his underlying metrics indicate that regression is imminent, but he’s also a lefty - and the D’Backs thrive against southpaws.
They lead the league in weighted runs created plus versus LHP (141).
As for Abbott, his ERA is 3.34, however his xFIP is 4.51. Also, his skill interactive ERA is 4.28 and he’s failed to produce ground balls consistently (31% GB rate).
If we flip the script, we can see that Arizona’s pitcher should actually be expected to perform a bit better than he has been lately.
Righty Brandon Pfaadt’s ERA is in the higher range of 4.60, but his expected ERA is 3.37 and his xFIP is 3.66.
His SIERA is 3.67 and he’s got a GB% of over 41%.
This season Cincy ranks 27th in wRC+ vs RHP (84).
This situation sets up adequately for the Reds to claim this series. The best price I’ve seen on their moneyline is -137; I'd recommend a wager on it until the odds reach -145.
Play: D'Backs ML (-137); Risk 1.37 units to win 1.00
MLB Record: 33-29-1 (+0.16) | NBA Record: 52-42-1 (+4.13)
******FYI******
The PGA Championship begins tomorrow!
On the latest episode of "Burke's Beat," Pro Golf Handicapper Brady Kannon joins the show and shares his analysis/bets on golf's second Major of the year.
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