We’re coming off a great night on the hardwood after a solid Sunday sweep!
As for tonight, we don’t have the deepest of slates, and I found myself with a few leans on player props, but - ultimately - didn’t have enough conviction to dish them out as official plays. However, where I do see a profitable venture is in a realm I rarely partake in.
Seldom are we looking to bet parlays and seldom are casual bettors looking to bet parlays that have a minus sign next to the odds. Well, both of those things are going to be occurring with my lone play throughout tonight’s NBA slate.
Parlay - Knicks ML / Kings ML
The Knicks are desperate to get back into the winning column, and, really, just to get back into a groove in general. There’s not many better teams to face that will give you the best opportunity to do just that than the Pistons.
Detroit has a record of 4-24 both home and away this year. They are currently on a five-game losing streak, and - actually - are in the middle of a 13-game losing streak against New York.
That’s right - the Pistons have not defeated the Knicks since November 6th, 2019.
Now, New York will still be missing three key players: Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson. But, Detroit will still be without their big man Isaiah Stewart, who is serving his third and final game of his suspension; and then Marcus Sasser, who is dealing with an injury to his knee.
The Knicks will be fine without their three missing pieces. They were solid in several spurts without them before the All-Star break, and will bounce back in this affair tonight. Plus, a couple of reinforcements they have added will look to thrive in this game. Over a couple weeks ago, the Knicks acquired Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks from the Pistons. These veterans should be eager at the opportunity to stick it to their old team.
And to conclude why I’m fading this Detroit team, if we just acknowledge some of their broad numbers, it’s evident why they are so poor.
Offensively, the Pistons are 25th in points per 100 possessions (111.2) and 22nd in effective field goal percentage (53.8%). And then defensively, this group ranks 29th in Pts/Poss (121.4) and 22nd in eFG% (56.5%).
New York is about an 11.5-point favorite across the board. That’s a steep number to lay regardless of the opponent. So that’s why I’m implementing the chalky moneyline price into a leg of the parlay.
Now as for our other leg - let’s head to the capital of California where the Kings will be looking to enact revenge on the Heat.
Back on January 31st, in South Beach, Jimmy Butler and company reigned victorious over the visiting Kings 115-106.
This upcoming meeting, however, will look a tad different.
Miami will be without their top dog in Butler, who is serving a one-game suspension for a fight that occurred over the weekend against the Pelicans. Alongside Butler in this one-game suspension, will be Nikola Jovic.
This is bad news for a Heat team that very much relies on both of those players. Jovic leads the team in efficiency differential (+12.5) and Butler is right behind him (+7.2). They also lead the team in expected wins when on the court - Jovic (+28) and Butler (+18).
Also, Tyler Herro is questionable heading into this game as he hyperextended his left knee against New Orleans.
This was already going to be a difficult spot for Miami. Playing in Sacramento is no picnic in the park. The Kings are 16-9 on their home floor and average six more points per game there.
Sacramento’s defense is without question a liability - ranking 21st in Pts/Poss and 25th in eFG%. However, the Heat are almost as bad on the offensive front: 22nd in Pts/Poss and 21st in eFG%. Plus, you've got to figure those offensive numbers will take an even bigger dive when they will be without one of their top performers in Butler.
The Kings are laying -6.5, and I feel that they should be able to cover it, but - because of their defensive vulnerabilities and inability to defeat weaker opponents in a seamless fashion - I am going to opt in to utilizing their ML price as the second-leg of the parlay.
The best ML price I witnessed was at ESPNBet, and the combination of the two selections was -165. I believe the odds should be more around -200.
Again, I realize wagering on a parlay that comes out to the odds of -165 is about as appealing as betting an over in an Iowa Hawkeyes football game, but with this spot I at least have confidence that the teams I am wagering on will score frequently. The goal is to make a profit - and sometimes it’s not going to appear pretty.
Play: Parlay - Knicks ML / Kings ML (-165); Risk 1.65 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 17-6 (+9.12)
Comments