Wednesday Recap:
Man, last night sucked about as much as one could imagine.
We had multiple blown leads, teams refusing to capitalize with runners in scoring position and just about everything else that would contribute to a disgusting night of betting.
The result is 2-5 (-3.88)...
Hopefully we can flip the script throughout today's action.
Burke's Bets
Rockies @ Reds
Today features the final game of this four-game series. Cincinnati captured the first two and then Colorado claimed a victory Wednesday night winning 6-5.
Hunter Greene is scheduled to start for the home team. The young right-hander has put up impressive numbers with his 3.45 ERA, 3.14 xERA and 3.68 FIP.
His xwOBA sits at .281, his xISO at .119 and he's given up just two earned runs in his past two outings.
The Rockies feature one of the league's worst offenses. And as we all know, they get a slight boost from playing half of their games at Coors Field, which is the friendliest ballpark to batters.
If we take their stats at Coors Field out of the equation, their numbers dip to a 79 wRC+, .132 ISO and a .638 OPS on the road versus RHP this season.
If we narrow it down even more, we can see that Colorado boasts a 52 wRC+ and a .551 OPS during the past month against RHP on the road.
Taking the bump for the Rockies will be lefty Austin Gomber. His numbers haven't impressed quite like his counterpart's.
Gomber posts a 4.47 ERA, a 4.69 xERA and a 4.82 FIP. He suffers a high home run to fly ball ratio of 14%, a barrel rate of 10% and a xwOBA of .338.
The Reds have underperformed against southpaws this season with just a 94 wRC+, .134 ISO and .694 OPS against them.
However, I believe Gomber presents a quality opportunity for Cincy to take advantage despite their woes against lefties.
I've taken a position on their runline with expectations that they attack Gomber and Greene provides another quality outing.
The market appears to have taking a liking to them as well, considering Circa Sportsbook opened Cincy at -1.5 (+105), but has since moved them to -1.5 (-103).
FanDuel has the best price offering at +110 on the RL, and that's what I'll be taking.
Furthermore, I'm going to take a small piece of Gomber's strikeout prop to the under.
4.5 is the mark it's set at with -130 juice being dealt to the under.
He hasn't found himself over 4.5 strikeouts in his last seven consecutive starts, and on the road he's failed to eclipse this mark in seven out of nine outings.
Of course that doesn't guarantee he stays under again, but clearly he's felt a bit more comfortable at home.
Also, his strikeout to walk ratio is very low at 9.6%, along with his SwStr% (Percentage of strikes swung at and missed) at 8.2%. League average is typically around 11% for SwStr% and Gomber is comfortably below that.
This season the Reds rank 17th in strikeout rate versus LHP at 22%.
Let's hope they get to Gomber early and cash both bets for us.
Plays:
Reds -1.5 (+110); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.10
Austin Gomber Under 4.5 K's (-130); Risk .75 units to win .58
A's @ Red Sox
Today's rubber-match features one of my Cy Young hopefuls in Tanner Houck, and then Luis Medina opposing him for the road team.
Houck's chances of winning the award have certainly dwindled as of late, but perhaps a start against the Athletics is just what he needs to get back into a groove.
This season, Oakland is hitting below average against RHP with a 86 wRC+, a .136 ISO and a .654 OPS.
Houck has both an ERA and FIP of 2.68. His ground ball rate resides at 55% and he's done well at keeping his HR/FB ratio low at 6.5%, along with his barrel rate at 5.7%.
On the other hand, Medina possesses a 4.37 ERA and a 5.47 xFIP. He's walking over 4.6 batters per nine innings, has a 1.54 WHIP and a .322 xwOBA.
Boston's bats have a 105 wRC+, a.178 ISO and a .753 OPS against righties this season.
And throughout the last month those stats have increased to a 123 wRC+, a .192 ISO and a .817 OPS.
The wind is blowing out toward center field at speeds over 15 MPH at Fenway Park; I'm expecting the Red Sox to capitalize on that.
Let's look for Boston to win this series and to cover today's runline.
Play: Red Sox -1.5 (-105); Risk 1.50 units to win 1.43
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