The second round of the NBA Playoffs have been interesting to say the least.
The reigning champion Denver Nuggets find themselves down 2-0 as the series heads back to Minnesota, and the Knicks scraped by in their first game thanks to some questionable calls.
Though, that’s the result I was hoping for at Madison Square Garden. But, not quite the outcome I was pleading for in the Mile High City.
This is what I played:
DEN/MIN series to end in 6 games (+220); Risk 2.00 units to win 4.40
DEN/MIN series to end in 7 games (+250); Risk 2.00 units to win 5.00
Minnesota capturing both games in Denver certainly makes these wagers unappealing.
As for the result in New York - I am content with that because we can now get the affordable price I was hoping for when I wrote about this series in my column yesterday for “The Sporting Tribune.”
In that article I give a full assessment of my handicap for the second round of the postseason. I recommend you give it a read to see why I have the angles that I do - especially for this matchup between the Knicks and Pacers.
Essentially I was hoping New York would win Game 1 so that the price on Indiana’s odds to cover +2.5 games on the series spread would dip to -150 or better. At FanDuel the number is listed at -144.
I will indeed place a wager on that - just as I discussed.
Play: Pacers +2.5 series spread (-144); Risk 2.88 units to win 2.00
Let’s move toward this evening’s slate…
Cavs @ Celtics
Again, I implore you to check out my breakdown of this series over at “The Sporting Tribune.” I did make a play and it can be viewed there. I have no action on Game 1 specifically, though.
Mavs @ Thunder
This was the only series that I didn’t have conviction with in terms of a series bet. I can respect both arguments for each team.
The Thunder are the deeper and more well-balanced unit. However, their lack of experience is concerning.
The Mavericks have the best duo in this series in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but outside of them - who’s going to consistently contribute offensively?
In terms of points per game, Doncic averaged about 30 and Irving put up 26.5 throughout Round 1. Their next highest scorer was P.J. Washington, who averaged 10.8 ppg versus the Clippers.
The good news is Tim Hardaway Jr. will be available going forward, but - the bad news is they lost Maxi Kleber to a separated shoulder for the foreseeable future.
Heading into the postseason, according to Cleaningtheglass.com, OKC ranked 2nd in efficiency differential (+8.0). They were top-3 in offensive points per 100 possessions and effective field goal percentage. Defensively, they were top-5 in those respective categories.
Dallas bolstered a top-10 offense within those metrics, however, on the defensive front they were below average.
Their defense did improve after acquiring big men Daniel Gafford and Washington. From February 22nd to the end of the regular season, they ranked 10th in defensive eFG% (53.7%) according to Cleaningtheglass.com.
I do expect this to be a back and forth series and I imagine home court is going to be monumental between these two squads.
Though, much like in Game 1 between the Mavericks and Clippers, I believe Dallas will get out to a slow start.
The OKC home crowd will be electric and the Thunder will ride that momentum, and their depth, toward a victory to kick things off.
The Mavericks are a team that needs to get settled in before executing adjustments accordingly; especially if their three-point attempts are not falling early on.
The defense of the Thunder will put intense pressure on their opponent and force them into uncomfortable situations and prohibit them from enacting their game plan(s) efficiently.
The consensus spread has OKC laying -3.5, but I’m going to pay a bit extra for the security of having it on the flat -3.
Play: Thunder -3 (-120); Risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
MLB:
White Sox @ Rays
Tampa Bay defeated Chicago 8-2 yesterday to extend their winning streak to four games.
Tonight they’ll look to make it five-in-a-row behind the arm of Zach Eflin.
This season Eflin has produced a 4.17 ERA - but several metrics indicate that his results should be much better.
Eflin’s expected ERA is 3.48 and his xFIP is 3.38. He’s walking less than 1 batter per nine innings (0.88) and holds a *skill interactive ERA (SIERA) of 3.47.
*SIERA is a backward-looking ERA estimator
Eflin did get roughed up by the Southsiders a couple starts ago. He surrendered 4 ER and they lost 9-4.
It’s a great opportunity for redemption considering this White Sox offense is far from consistent.
They rank 29th in weighted-runs created plus (wRC+) vs righties.
Defensively, Chicago will rely on right-hander Michael Soroka.
Soroka posts a 6.48 ERA and, unlike Eflin, his projections don’t display that things will get much better. His xERA is 6.68 and his xFIP is 5.65. He’s walking over 5 batters per nine innings and has a high home-run-to-fly-ball ratio of 17.5%. Ideally for a pitcher that percentage is under 10%.
His SIERA is 5.92.
The Rays rank 10th in wRC+ vs RHP this season and have built solid momentum over the past week.
I expect that to continue and will be laying the run-and-a-half with the home team. -109 is the best price I’ve seen; BetRivers had that available. I would play it up to -118, which appears to be the next cheapest price in the state of Illinois.
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-109); Risk 1.09 units to win 1.00
Tigers @ Guardians
Initially, when analyzing this matchup, I strongly considered siding with Cleveland.
They are starting lefty Logan Allen, who’s underlying metrics show that he could be due for a quality start.
His ERA is 5.11, but he has a 4.12 xERA and an xFIP of 4.29. The balls that are batted in play against him are resulting in a line drive only 14.8% of the time, while his ground ball rate is over 44%.
Detroit has struggled against southpaws this season ranking 22nd in wRC+ against them.
On the other side, right-hander Kenta Maeda is taking the bump for the Tigers.
Throughout 28.2 innings of work Maeda holds a 5.02 ERA, but an xFIP of 4.14.
He has only allowed 1 ER within his past two starts. His batting average of ball in play (BABIP) is .244 and he also has a GB% of over 40%.
The Guardians are in the middle of the pack (15th) when it comes to their hitters against righties. Their wRC+ is at 99.
Both lineup's have limited history against each respective pitchers. I believe this has the makings to be a lower-scoring affair. However, just because some of the metrics for these pitchers indicate some positive regression does not mean it’s guaranteed.
I want to limit the potential damage of that with the wager I'm making. So, I’m going to bet there to be no runs scored in the first inning.
Allen has only allowed an opponent to score once throughout seven starts in the 1st inning. Maeda has allowed it to occur in three out of six starts, however, he has prevented it within his last two, and I’m hoping his efficiency continues into tonight.
Play: DET/CLE No run 1st Inning (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
コメント