Quite the time for these division foes to square off against one another, as both of these teams come into this spot, on a short week, after gruesome losses.
I tend to lean toward Baltimore in the game, with their huge defensive advantage, along with the injuries Cincy is suffering, but will ultimately stay away pre-flop and, instead, see if I can’t get a better number in-game.
However, where I do see some value is in the prop market.
I’m looking at Ravens Running Back Gus Edwards.
Over the past four games, Edwards has accumulated seven rushing touchdowns. He has eight throughout the entire season thus far - the other one coming in week 2 against none other than the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincy is allowing a touchdown per game to opponents, ranks 29th in DVOA run defense, 28th in defensive EPA/Play against the run and allows 5.0 yards per carry, which ranks 31st in the NFL.
Baltimore, and Edwards (11 carries, 24 yards) was unsuccessful in their ground efforts this past Sunday vs Cleveland. That was a large reason as to why they could not control the time of possession late in the game and hold onto their lead.
That should alter tonight against one of the league’s worst run defenses. I expect Coach Harbaugh to emphasize that part of their offense and give Edwards numerous opportunities - especially, and hopefully, in the red zone.
Play: Gus Edwards Anytime TD Score (+105); risk 1.00 unit to win 1.05
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