TNF - Patriots @ Steelers
Somehow I have corralled myself into betting this game…and with multiple wagers even.
Why would I invest myself into this nightmare of a matchup? Well, it’s because of a question.
And that question, which is one you should be asking yourself, is whether or not Mitch Trubisky deserves to be laying six points against any team in the National Football League.
Your answer should be no.
Yes, the Patriots have looked beyond awful, but I can’t put stock into Trubisky being able to overcome their strong defense.
New England is limiting opponents to 4.9 yards per play, which is the fourth fewest in the league. They thrive at defending the run; they rank first in both EPA and success rate, and allow 3.2 yards per rush attempt to opposing tailbacks, which is the fewest among all 32 teams. Believe it or not, that number has actually dipped to 2.3 over their last three games, too.
This means that the Steelers may have to rely more so on Trubisky to make some big time plays…hence why I’m taking the points.
Also, the Patriots are tied with the Steelers for having the sixth-best red zone defensive efficiency mark (45.7%). The total for this game is listed at a consensus 30. That’s a small margin of scoring expectations to be laying almost a touchdown with a backup quarterback.
Moving along, let’s talk about the offense. For New England, that side of the ball is abysmal - there’s no navigating around that. The only hope is that maybe Ezekiel Elliot can find some gaps in the ground game and / or Bailey Zappe gets into a rhythym at some point.
But, realistically, it’s going to be the lack of offensive success out of their opponent that keeps them in this game, and maybe a turnover or two.
Furthermore, the last four losses from Bill Belichick’s team have all been by six points or less, with an average losing margin of four.
This is purely a bet on the number rather than the talent. And on a short-week, too, it is usually harder to justify laying a larger spread. Now factor that in with Trubisky being the guy you’re trusting to do it with. Yeah, no thanks. So I’ll be taking +6 with the Patriots tonight.
But, hey, speaking of Trubisky…let’s discuss one of his prop bets shall we?
I already mentioned how stout this New England run defense is with a ranking of first in yards per carry allowed, rush EPA and rush success rate. But, against the pass it’s a much different story.
Bill Belichick's crew comes in at 28th in drop back EPA and 23rd in drop back success rate. They are allowing opposing QB’s to complete over 67% of their throws.
I believe this game will be played fairly close, so in my estimation that means the Steelers may need to play competitively all the way through, or, heck, they may be trailing at some point and have to play catch up.
Also, I don’t think Mike Tomlin’s running backs will have much success against the league’s top run defense. So what does that tell us? It tells us that we can expect the passing efforts from Trubisky to be prominent. Or, at least prominent enough to eclipse his pass attempts total of 27.5.
I don’t want to have to trust Trubisky with his completions or yards, I just want to bank on him throwing it consistently. And that should be the game plan for Pittsburgh’s offense against their opponent's struggling pass defense. They should have Mitch roll out and aim for shorter and easier throws in the flat all game long.
In two small sample sizes this season - we’ve gotten a good impression that the Steelers are going to let him sling it.
Last week vs Arizona, he went 11-17 for 117 yards and 1 touchdown. He wasn’t in for a majority of the game, yet, still racked up some decent stats.
And, then, at the end of October - Trubisky came in vs the Jaguars. He split time with Kenny Pickett in that matchup and still managed to go 15-27 for 138 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.
This game is different because we can (hopefully) expect Trubisky under the helm all the way through, which should provide more than enough time for him to attempt over 27 passes.
Plays:
Patriots +6 (-110); risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Mitch Trubisky Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-114 ); risk 1.14 units to win 1.00
6-Point Teaser - Bucs / Ravens
Bucs @ Falcons
Back in week 7 these teams squared off in Tampa, and the Falcons came out on top 16-13. That was without Bijan Robinson for the majority of the game, who took just one snap for a three-yard carry and then exited the contest due to headaches.
Robinson is expected to be 100% for this game, the Bucs already lost to them once and the game is being played in Atlanta this time…so why aren’t the Falcons laying more than -1.5?
Well, Tampa Bay’s offense has been a tad more formidable than Atlanta’s. The Bucs come in at 16th in EPA/Play and 13th in drop back EPA. The Falcons rank 25th and 23rd in those categories, respectively.
Defensively, Atlanta gets the nod of approval. They are 4th in defensive success rate and 7th in defensive EPA/Play. Tampa sits at 27th and 21st in those categories, respectively.
Interestingly enough, though, DVOA ranks these defenses a bit differently. In terms of DVOA overall defense the Bucs come in at 14th and the Falcons 25th.
In terms of red zone defense - both teams are rock solid. Atlanta has the league’s best RZ defense (37%) and Tampa Bay is listed as the 4th best (40%). In terms of red zone offense, both groups are at about 50%.
All of these different metrics are peculiar to see and make your head spin when trying to decipher which team is the right side. My initial inklings led me toward backing Baker Mayfield and company. They may not have as many dominant weapons offensively, but they have enough. And, more importantly, they actually have a QB that utilizes those weapons and can deliver the pigskin to them, unlike Ridder with his crew.
Nevertheless, I do feel confident in assuming that this matchup won’t be a blowout either way. I mean, heck, this total is only at 39, so points are expected to come at a premium. And that, along with the familiarity of these teams being division foes and this being the second meeting between these squads this season, leads me to believe that we will witness another close encounter.
So that’s why I chose to implement the Bucs as a teaser leg. On Wednesday I moved them from +2.5 to +8.5. I realize the line has since altered, and the best number is now Tampa at +1.5, so I would still recommend teasing them up six points to get them to +7.5.
Let’s talk about the team I’m pairing them with…
Rams @ Ravens
Sean McVay’s team will head to Baltimore on a three-game win streak. Unfortunately, and realistically, it will come to an end this Sunday.
The Rams will face a Ravens defense that ranks 1st in DVOA overall defense, 2nd in EPA/Play, 3rd in success rate. Also, Baltimore allows the fewest yards per completion (7.6) and they rank 3rd in both red zone defensive efficiency (37.5%) and red zone offensive efficiency (64.6%).
Los Angeles is about middle of the pack in terms of DVOA, EPA and success rate categories, defensively speaking. Yes, they are a competitive bunch that features some great weapons, but they can’t compete with the likes of the Ravens.
It’s evident that teams outside of the AFC North struggle against Lamar Jackson. They aren’t used to his dual threat abilities and don’t know how to counter it efficiently. The only loss that Baltimore has had outside of the division was a 22-19 loss vs the Colts in overtime in week 3. Their other two losses came against their division rivals Pittsburgh (17-10) and Cleveland (33-31).
Furthermore, the weather in this game is going to feature hefty wind and rain - that should be a benefit to a team that can run a spread offense, as opposed to a pass-heavy team.
The Ravens should take care of business off of their bye-week and not only have a solid chance to cover their spread of -7, but, more importantly, cover their spot of -1 once we tease them down six points.
Play: 6-Point Teaser - Bucs (+8.5) / Ravens (-1); risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
Recap:
Patriots +6 (-110); risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Mitch Trubisky Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-114 ); risk 1.14 units to win 1.00
6-Point Teaser - Bucs (+8.5) / Ravens (-1); risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
NFL Record: 25-22-1 (+0.49)
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