Hope you're doing well and are excited to see the Bears make us Chicagoans question why we even follow this sport in the first place!
As of now, I've got one prop for TNF and two moneyline bets for the Sunday slate. I'm going to be adding more plays for the weekend as we get closer, but wanted to release these ones for the time being.
Sam Howell Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-106)
Howell comes into this matchup throwing the ball an average of 35 times per contest, having gone over this prop mark of 30.5 in 3/4 games. The only one he stayed under was that blowout against the Bills. The game was finished before it even began and, yet, Howell still almost got over this mark by throwing 29 times.
Howell’s eyes are lighting up at the opportunity to face this Bears defense.
Chicago’s secondary ranks 31st against the pass according to DVOA, and 31st in defensive EPA against the pass.
Surprisingly the Bears have been okay against the run. They are limiting opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 6th in the NFL. So the expectation for Washington's offense should be an emphasis on the passing effort.
Also, I don’t believe it’s going to be a blowout, which means I’m banking on the Commanders not getting a comfortable lead for a majority of this game, which in turn would allow them to take the ball out of Howell’s hands and implement the run consistently.
Now, apparently, Bears Safety Eddie Jackson is planning to play Thursday Night, while Cornerback Jaylon Johnson is still listed as questionable. But, let’s be real, whether or not these guys play is not going to affect the play calling out of Washington. Even when those guys were healthy to start the year they were getting torched in the secondary.
*Update: Jackson and Johnson are now listed as OUT and CB Jaquan Brisker is now questionable*
Don't forget, Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy took this position with the Commanders to prove he can turn any QB, not just Patrick Mahomes, into a stud. Bieniemy is out to prove he is an offensive guru and worthy of a head coaching gig.
Heck, his first one may come as a Chicago Bear. He’s got incentive to show that front office what they missed out on the last go around, and to make sure they don’t make the same mistake again.
Patriots ML (-108) vs Saints
I know that it all seems doom and gloom in New England with Mac Jones looking rusty and the injuries to CB Christian Gonzalez and OLB Matthew Judon.
Losing your top defensive pieces hurts - there’s no way around that. Although, New England did trade for former Patriot J.C. Jackson, to help fill the void of Gonzalez.
Nevertheless, this Sunday, I believe them to be at an advantage still.
According to nfeloapp.com, through the first four weeks of the season the Patriots have played the NFL’s second toughest schedule. Meanwhile their upcoming opponent - the Saints - have endured the second easiest schedule.
So it’s not a shock to see New England with a record of 1-3. However, what is a tad surprising is that the Saints are only 2-2. New Orleans blew a game at Green Bay the other week and then got dismantled by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers this past Sunday.
Not only that, but the Saints barely won against two of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill and the Titans only lost 16-15 and Bryce Young and the Panthers fell 20-17.
Granted, that Carolina game was a bigger differential than the final score indicates, but, still - there has been nothing comfortable about this Saints season thus far.
In a multitude of statistical categories, the Patriots have the advantage. Here are some of them:
DVOA Defense:
Patriots (8th)
Saints (9th)
DVOA Offense:
Patriots (19th)
Saints (22nd)
Yards Per Carry Allowed:
Patriots (3.8)
Saints (4.1)
Yards Per Completion Allowed:
Patriots (8.6)
Saints (9.5)
Offensive Red Zone Efficiency:
Patriots (62.50%)
Saints (33.33%) Ranks 32nd in the NFL
The margin of difference in most of these categories is not substantial, but that’s why the spread isn’t either.
Despite that, after going through a lot of these areas that I find crucial, it does add up in favor of the home team.
I see the slight advantage defensively for the Patriots, but - most importantly a MASSIVE head coaching mismatch that favors Bill Belichick.
And in my estimation, that is worthy of a bet against an underwhelming New Orleans team featuring an underperforming QB in Derek Carr.
Broncos ML (-120) vs Jets
Not quite the game you envision sweating out when you’re looking forward to an NFL Sunday, eh?
Well, I am going to put myself through the ringer with this one; so let me explain why I’m willing to do so.
This game has plenty of narrative surrounding it. And it’s not just because it may be one of the ugliest matchups we witness; it has more to do with Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett going back to Denver to face his former squad.
Not only do I think it was the worst coaching performance in my lifetime, but you had the Broncos new head coach, Sean Payton, essentially say the same thing this offseason.
So I’m sure a lot of emotions will be invested into this matchup.
If this game was being played away from the Mile High City, then I believe the narrative would better suit Hackett.
Instead, it’s being played in Denver, which isn’t considered one of the easier places for a road team to win.
Plus, the Broncos are coming off an impressive 21-point comeback win in Chicago. Perhaps the fellas will carry that momentum back home against a pouting Jets team that had a grueling loss vs the NFL’s reigning Super Bowl champs.
The head coaching advantage is clear in this one, Payton gets the nod.
But what about quarterbacks?
Well, let’s take a look:
CPOE (Completion % over expected):
Russell (8.4%) | Zach (-1.8%)
Success Rate:
Russell (49.6%) | Zach (35.8%)
Passer Rating:
Russell (108.3) | Zach (73.4)
EPA/Play:
Russell (0.15) | Zach (-0.18)
aDOT (Avg depth of target):
Russell (7.9) | Zach (7.5)
WPA (Win probability added):
Russell (0.9) | Zach (-0.5)
So, yeah, I think the older Wilson takes the cake.
It’s crazy, but despite what you’ve witnessed, Russell Wilson has been one of the more efficient passers in the league.
It’s his defense that is absolute trash.
Denver ranks dead last in DVOA defense, defensive EPA per play and completion percentage (78.13%).
Plus, the Broncos rank 31st in defensive red zone efficiency (81.25%), as well as yards per carry allowed (5.6).
Beyond disgusting.
BUT, the good news is they can redeem themselves (or at least look somewhat competent) against one of the worst offenses in the league.
The New York Jets rank 31st in offensive EPA per play and 27th in total DVOA offense.
So let’s hope that Zach Wilson’s breakout game last week was a fluke and we get back to witnessing the usual mishaps from him.
And a final thing - let’s stop acting like Robert Saleh’s defense is still one of the best. It's not.
In fact - It’s nowhere close to that.
The Jets rank 19th in total DVOA defense, 22nd in DVOA pass defense and then 18th in defensive EPA per play.
If the Broncos end up letting me down in a horrendous way once again - I’ll only have myself to blame. But, man, the difference in coaching and quarterback play has me trusting these guys at least one more time. Just don’t be complete fools out there please.
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