Wednesday Recap:
Record: 0-1 (-1.40)
Braves-1.5 (-140) vs Cardinals Loss
MLB Record: 75-65-1 (+0.11)
Bruuuuuuuuuuutal effort out of Spencer Strider last night.
Not only does he severely hurt his NL Cy Young chances, but he killed our bet.
Strider began the game with a walk, which then led to a two-run homer from Paul Goldschmidt.
Strider's catcher, Sean Murphy, didn't do him any favors afterwards by letting a fairly easy strike three pitch go past him, which contributed to the onslaught that followed in the 1st inning.
Strider proceeded to go just 2.2 IP, allowing 6 ER on 6 hits.
That's not quite what bettors were expecting out of the righty, as we saw this Atlanta runline move as high as the mid -150s before first pitch.
Also, according to ESPN Stats & Info, favorites of -350 or higher were 5-0 this season entering Wednesday's games.
Throughout the matchup, there were actually a couple brief glimmers of hope when it looked like the Braves offense could spark a comeback. Like in the bottom half of the first, when Atlanta had two on with two outs and Marcell Ozuna cranked a pitch over the wall in deep left field that ended up barely tilting foul.
Or, when the Braves were rallying in the 6th, and their potential MVP, Ronald Acuña, winds up grounding into a double play with runners on the corners and just 1 out.
We can play ifs and buts all day long, but in the end it was a poor outing and a poor handicap. It is what it is and that's how baseball goes sometimes, folks.
But, before we conclude this brief recap, let's address the updated NL Cy Young odds post-Strider's debacle last evening.
As of this morning, I saw Strider as high as 16/1 at BetMGM, while other outlets - such as DraftKings - still had him around his price that was listed prior to last night's outing, which was about 5/1.
Snell's odds didn't fluctuate too much, but Steele's did. The best price on the Cubs' ace can be found at DraftKings at +215, while other books have him sub-two dollars.
Clearly this is not what us Strider ticket holders want to see. All we can hope for is Snell to get obliterated by the Astros in his next start and for something similar to occur with Steele.
(That pains me to say as a Cubs fan.)
But enough sulking, let's move on to the action I'm looking forward to today on the diamond...
7:40pm ET - Diamondbacks @ Cubs
As of late, the Cubbies have been lights out, they're coming off a three-game sweep of the Giants and are looking to press the momentum forward against Ryne Nelson and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The righty, Nelson, comes into this spot posting a 5.47 ERA and a 5.25 xFIP.
He has surrendered 12 ER over his past two starts and has failed to make it past three innings in both of those outings.
In addition to that, Nelson gets to face this Chicago unit that has featured one of the hottest offenses in baseball vs RHP since the All-Star Break:
2nd in wOBA (.358) | 2nd in OPS (.835) | 3rd in wRC+ (127)
Opposing Nelson and the D'Backs will be right-hander Javier Assad.
Assad, the converted reliever turned starter, has been very productive on the mound since his role altered.
Since his start in Toronto, on August 11th, Assad has pitched 33.1 innings, has allowed 6 ER and a total of 16 hits.
His complete season ERA throughout 87 IP is 2.69. However, he does have a concerning xFIP of 4.39.
But, FanGraphs listed his xFIP below 3.80 in three of his last four starts; so hopefully the projections adjust and he can keep putting together solid performances on the field.
Furthermore, the Cubs ended up victorious in 4/5 of those starts from Assad - the lone loss being his most recent, which ironically was his best performance thus far (8.0 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 7 K's). The magnificent effort from Assad was ultimately squandered in the 9th when Chicago's bullpen blew the lead to the Reds.
Nevertheless, he should be looking to carry that swagger into a spot that features an Arizona offense that ranks 23rd in both wOBA (.307) and OPS (.706) and then 22nd in wRC+ (91) vs RHP since the beginning of August.
The Cubs now find themselves 1.5 games back from the division leading Brewers, which is important to note for many reasons. Mainly, though, because in a spot like this where a team like Chicago is coming off a sweep, I'd typically tend to stay away from betting them in their next series opener. Not only are those spots a tad wonky in general, but the Cubbies have struggled in series openers during the second half of this season, going just 7-9.
But because the top spot in the NL Central is right at Chicago's fingertips, the incentive to battle in each game will still give me confidence in backing this bunch.
Similarly to the Cubs, the D'Backs are also fighting for playoff positioning.
Arizona comes into Thursday night just a half-game back from Miami in the Wild Card race.
However, despite the similarities in the motives for postseason seeding, the difference between these two teams, this evening, will be the success that the favorite has had on their home field (19-9 since the ASB) and the sizable advantage Chicago holds in both the pitching and hitting.
Weather wise it appears there will be significant winds blowing in from the bleachers at about 12 MPH during game time. So this could limit any potential home run damage from either side.
I originally would've preferred to back the Cubs runline tonight; the best price I saw was +130. I would've chosen that route because the moneyline price is a tad too high for my liking and as we've witnessed, this offense can explode at any given moment.
So, instead, I'm playing the Cubs -1 at the price of -110.
I realize more often than not the team that wins will do so by two or more runs, but in this spot I'm willing to pay a slight price for the potential necessity of protection.
I'm seeking that extra cushion due to the weather possibly limiting run production, along with the underlying metrics raising slight concerns on Assad.
Even if those factors end up being impactful, I still have faith in Chicago to overcome Arizona - it just may be by a narrow margin, hence laying the flat one as opposed to the one and the hook.
By the way, as far as I've seen - BetRivers and DraftKings are the only books that offer the flat 1 on baseball spreads. In this case, the -110 price was found at BR.
Play: Cubs -1 (-110)
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