8:10pm ET - Padres @ Astros
Well, this is the big one.
We’ve discussed this matchup a couple of times this past week and it’s finally here.
NL Cy Young hopeful, Blake Snell, gets his opportunity to solidify himself as the top dog in the race with a quality outing tonight.
Unfortunately for Snell, I don’t believe it happens.
Now now, relax - I’m not just saying that because I’ve been hoping for Spencer Strider to win this award (although I do hope that).
I’m saying this because Houston has been THE most powerful offense in baseball as of late.
And, honestly, it’s not even just recently - it dates back to the beginning of the second half of this season.
Let’s take a look at the Astros numbers vs LHP since the ASB and since August 1st:
Since ASB vs LHP:
wRC+ - 1st (153)
OPS - 1st (.925)
wOBA - 1st (.393)
Since August 1st vs LHP:
wRC+ - 1st (172)
OPS - 1st (.997)
wOBA - 1st (.420)
Compared to the rest of the league, it’s really not that close. Houston has been obliterating left handed pitching.
And you don’t think that with arguably the most dominant pitcher in the league coming into their home turf that they won’t take it personally?
The boys will be fired up for this one and treat it like a playoff game. They will have the incentive to be the team that finally puts a dent in Snell's stat line.
And they’ll have a fantastic chance not only because of how great they’ve been vs LHP, but also because of Snell's liability with his walk rate.
I’ve been saying for quite some time that this would eventually haunt Snell - and I would imagine it comes to fruition tonight.
The lefty is walking 5.17 batters per nine innings. Historically, the league average is around 2.9. Let’s hope the defending World Series Champions can stay patient at the plate and capitalize.
It ain’t gonna be easy, though. Because on the other side, they’re going to need a big outing from their own pitcher.
The home squad will be tossing out right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown.
On the surface, Brown’s numbers are a tad scary: 4.53 ERA / .342 BABIP / 18.6% HR/FB
But, remember what we’ve talked about. Just because it’s a higher ERA and BABIP, doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a bad pitcher; it could mean he’s just getting a tad unlucky.
And according to his xFIP, which is listed at 3.39 - that’s exactly how we should attribute it for Brown.
Plus, his SIERA of 3.67 is promising as well.
Since the beginning of August, San Diego’s bats vs RHP have not treated them all too well:
23rd in OPS (.711)
21st in wOBA (.311)
17th in wRC+ (99)
It’s time for Brown to make his mark and to take advantage of what has been an underwhelming offense the entire season.
And if you needed just a liiiiitle more convincing - there are no hitters in the Padres lineup that will have faced Brown.
However, there has been a handful of familiarity with some of the biggest bats in Houston’s lineup against Snell:
Michael Brantley vs Snell: 6-13, .462 AVG, .462 OBP, .692 SLG
Alex Bregman vs Snell: 7-20, .350 AVG, .480 OBP, .700 SLG
Jose Altuve vs Snell: 8-21, 4 HR, .381 AVG, .435 OBP, 1.000 SLG
Circa opened the Astros as a -123 favorite, but now has them listed at -132.
Here in Illinois, the best number I can find on Houston ML is -134 at BetRivers.
I’ll be hopping on that.
Play: Astros ML (-134)
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