The much anticipated meeting between these two teams begins tonight in Denver. Nikola Jokic and company are series favorites of anywhere from -200 to -205, whereas Anthony Edwards and his crew are catching between the range of +160 to +175.
Considering I’m still sweating out my championship exacta bet of the Celtics to beat the Nuggets (13/1), I will be rooting for the favorite in this second-round series.
However, the T’Wolves do put a bit of fear into me - as they should toward Nuggets fans.
Minnesota was underrated heading into the playoffs and they are arguably regarded as the same in this series, too.
Based on what we’ve seen all season, along with the results of the opening round, I don’t believe that Denver should be laying over two dollars.
With that being said, I’m going to handicap this in an alternative direction from the outright winner perspective.
I’m going to wager on this series going deep.
The best price I’ve seen on the total games over 5.5 is -160 at DraftKings. Though, much like we approached the LAC/DAL series, I’m going to elect in betting the exact games the series finishes on instead.
For the series to end in 6 games - the best price is +220 at DraftKings.
For the series to end in 7 games - the best price is +250 at ESPNBet.
There is a potential for more profit by utilizing these bets as opposed to doing just the over 5.5 games and laying a price.
Yes, there will be slightly more risk involved, but I’m comfortable enacting that due to my confidence in this series going long.
Last postseason these teams met in the Round 1. The Nuggets won in 5 games. However, several Denver players mentioned how that was their most difficult matchup throughout that championship run.
Plus, Minnesota did not have Naz Reid or Jaden McDaniels in that series. And the T’Wolves are a much improved team from that point to now.
Edwards is chartering toward superstar status in the league and Minnesota came into this postseason with the top-ranked defense in terms of points per 100 possessions allowed and opponent effective field goal percentage.
That, along with their size, will allow the Timberwolves to snag a couple of games in this upcoming battle.
To be precise, this is how I’m betting it:
Series to finish in 6 games (+220); Risk 2 units to win 4.40
Series to finish in 7 games (+250); Risk 2 units to win 5.00
But, in order for one of those wagers to win the other must lose. So we have to subtract 2.00 units from the loss of the other bet.
If the series ends in 6 games I’d profit 2.40 units and if it concludes in 7 games I’d profit 3.00 units.
Let’s hope for a deep, exciting series that results in a Nuggets win.
Plays:
Series to finish in 6 games (+220); Risk 2 units to win 4.40
Series to finish in 7 games (+250); Risk 2 units to win 5.00
FYI:
I am holding off on betting the other postseason series for the time being. I haven’t fully dissected the Mavericks and Thunder matchup, and with the Pacers and Knicks I am simply waiting to see the result of the first game. I’m being patient because I do want to invest in the Pacers catching +2.5 games on the series spread, but the price is fairly steep (-190 is the best I’ve seen). I expect New York to have a strong edge in game one, and if they win then the price for Indiana to cover +2.5 games on the series spread will ideally alter enough to becoming an affordable price.
REMINDER:
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