Man, it seems like we can’t catch a break on the diamond.
Monday night was a rough one, going 0-2.
Kevin Gausman got lit up by the Orioles and the Padres forgot the basic fundamentals of base running.
Ha-Seong Kim was thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple and then Jurickson Profar was sent home and thrown out by a country mile.
What made Profar’s out even worse is that if he had stayed at second then Manny Machado would’ve been at-bat with runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out.
It was an utter disappointment all around for the offense that couldn’t provide runs for Matt Waldron, who delivered an absolute gem going 6.1 IP, and allowing just 1 ER on 2 hits.
Let’s try to bounce back today…
Royals @ Guardians
The surging Seth Lugo is set to represent the road team in the first spot of this three-game series in Cleveland.
Lugo is 9-1 with a 1.72 ERA and a 3.22 FIP. His home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is 6.2%, his batting average of balls in play (BABIP) is .251, his left on base percentage is 89.5% and he’s only walking about two batters per nine innings pitched.
Suffice to say the dude has been lethal.
He’ll be facing a Guardians offense that has been average against RHP - ranking 17th in weighted runs created plus (99).
Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie looks to be their scheduled starter and his numbers do not resonate quite like Lugo’s.
Despite McKenzie’s 3.77 ERA, his expected earned run average sits at 4.62 and his FIP is listed at 5.58. He’s also walking over five batters per nine innings pitched.
Since the middle of May, Kansas City has increased their offense production versus righties; they rank 10th in wRC+ (108).
On Monday evening most sportsbooks had the Royals priced around -105. However, FanDuel was the lone operator offering plus money (+104). I took a piece of that and would recommend a play on Lugo and company up until the price of -110.
Play: Royals ML (+104); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.04
Tigers @ Rangers
A great pitchers’ duel occurred Monday night between these two teams. Detroit ended on top winning 2-1.
They’ll have a prime opportunity to win a lower-scoring affair yet again with Jack Flaherty taking the bump.
Flaherty’s numbers should cause fear throughout every opposing lineup.
He’s got an ERA of 3.46, but an xERA of 2.53 and then a 2.78 FIP, but an xFIP of 2.03.
As strong as he’s been - the numbers indicate he could be even more elusive.
He’s walking less than 1.5 batters per nine innings pitched and produces plenty of grounders (45.6%).
Oddly enough, he’s pitched better on the road, too, posting a 2.78 ERA, a .268 weighted on-base average and an xFIP of 2.11.
This Rangers offense has been slumping since the middle of May - ranking 27th in wRC+ vs RHP (86).
It’d be hard to imagine they turn it around against Flaherty, a pitcher who’s averaging 6.1 innings pitched per outing.
I’m recommending a wager on his outs recorded prop. 17.5 is the number listed and BetRivers currently has the cheapest price offered at -134.
He’s eclipsed 17.5 outs in 10/11 starts.
Against a struggling Texas offense there’s a very real chance it happens again.
Play: Jack Flaherty Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-134); Risk 1.00 unit to win 0.75
Twins @ Yankees
The Bronx Bombers look to extend their winning streak to six games when they host the Twins.
Projected New York starter Luis Gil, actually began his career with Minnesota. He was in the minors within the organization before being traded to the Yankees.
That was over six years ago.
Now he is viewed as one of the top arms in the big leagues.
He’s 7-1 with a 1.99 ERA and a FIP of 2.98. His BABIP is .187, which is remarkable, he’s limited the home run damage effectively (0.57 HR/9) and has done well at stranding runners with an 83% LOB percentage.
Opposing the red-hot Yanks will be right-hander Bailey Ober.
Ober’s ERA is concerning with a mark of 4.89, however, his xERA is 4.01 and his xFIP is 3.93.
Perhaps improvements are to be expected, but it’s hard to imagine that coming to fruition against one of the best lineups in baseball.
New York ranks 1st in wRC+ vs RHP since the middle of May (141).
Minnesota sits at 21st throughout the time frame.
Some books have the Yankees moneyline as steep as -180. Instread, the play is to target the runline. For the traditional RL of -1.5, Circa Sportsbook offers the most value at +122.
However, because betting teams on winning streaks tends to be dicey and their bullpen has some concerning underlying metrics (2.87 ERA, 4.09 xFIP), I will be utilizing the flat -1 RL at the odds of -125, which I see available at BetRivers.
Plus, the wind is blowing in at Yankee Stadium and runs are expected to come at a premium. The offense may do enough to win, but not cover - so I’m just implementing a bit of security to my wager.
Play: Yankees -1 (-125); Risk 1.25 units to win 1.00
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:
I recently published an article featuring my betting preview of the NBA Finals at The Sporting Tribune.
You can see what series prop I’m playing, player props to consider and much more.
Check it out here: https://t.co/XYz0m5CQ65
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