Hope everyone has enjoyed the holiday week and the betting has been treating you right. Just in case you missed it, here is a recap of all the NFL plays that I've made throughout this past week. Best of luck!
Bills @ Eagles
Is Philadelphia really as good as their 9-1 record? I don’t believe so.
Is it because I am still a tad bit salty that my Kansas City bet didn’t come through against them last Monday? Perhaps.
But, in all seriousness, this Philly team has not looked as dominant as their record appears. And the Chiefs very much lost that game more so than the Eagles won it.
Somehow I actually have confidence in this Bills team for this spot. Heck, I basically swore off betting them two weeks ago after they killed our bet on Monday night against the Broncos, but here we are.
….Maybe I should stop wagering on Monday Night Football games….
Nevertheless, Buffalo has been a wonky team - we all know this. Their metrics display greatness, however their record shows underachievement. Maybe that means it’s time for this squad to turn it around.
The Bills come into this game ranking 2nd in offensive success rate and 3rd in EPA/Play. They are 2nd in the NFL in rush EPA, rush success rate and drop back success rate. And, it’s an offense that averages 6 yards per play and scores a touchdown when entering the red zone at a rate of 66% (3rd).
As for the Eagles - they rank 5th in offensive EPA/Play and 6th in success rate. They come in at 11th for drop back success rate, 3rd in rush success rate, average 5.4 YPP and have a red zone efficiency of 59%.
So, it appears that the Bills do have an edge offensively, or, at least they SHOULD.
Defensively, these teams are fairly similar in terms of those metrics, so I won’t run down the list. However, there is a difference within some categories on that side of the ball.
The Eagles have struggled in the red zone defensively, allowing opponents to score a touchdown 62.5% of the time (25th). The Bills have done particularly well in that territory, only allowing opponents to cross the plane at a 47% clip (10th).
Both teams are allowing 5.2 yards per play, although, if we narrow down the sample size and look at both of these teams’ last three games, then Philly is allowing 5.7 YPP and Buffalo is surrendering 4.4.
And then - taking a look at quarterback play - Josh Allen, metrically, has been better.
Allen is 2nd in success rate and 3rd in adjusted EPA/Play, whereas Hurts is 10th in success rate and 6th in adjusted EPA/Play.
Apologies for all the numbers thrown at you, but I just wanted to show why the Bills should probably not be catching more than three points. And that is why I will be playing them over that key number. This is a chance for Buffalo to prove to themselves and to everyone else that they can still be a top team and turn their season around.
Play: Bills +3.5 (-115); risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
Bears @ Vikings
Despite another disgusting and aggravating loss, there are some positives to look at with this Bears team. Most notably - the defensive improvements.
If you look through the scope of the entirety of this season, Chicago ranks 26th in defensive EPA/Play and 19th in success rate. However, if we narrow it down from week 6 to now, then Matt Eberflus’ group improves to 10th in EPA/Play and 11th in success rate.
Also, in that span of time, the Bears rank first in terms of defensive rush EPA and success rate. They are limiting opposing tailbacks to just 3.4 yards per rush attempt this season, which is tied for the fewest in the NFL (along with New England).
A big reason for the progression has to do with their secondary staying healthy, as well as the addition of DE Montez Sweat.
Another great run defense in the league belongs to the Bears’ opponent this week. The Vikings are tied for second in terms of the fewest rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.7).
As we know, Chicago is a very run heavy team as they hand it off at a rate of 43% (3rd).
Minnesota also ranks 10th in defensive EPA/Play and 12th in success rate this whole season.
And their numbers have gotten better as well. Since week 6, the Vikings have improved to 3rd in defensive EPA/Play and 10th in success rate.
So it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Bears struggle offensively in this matchup.
The first meeting between these teams resulted in a 19-13 Minnesota victory. Kirk Cousins was still playing, Justin Jefferson was still out and Justin Fields exited in the middle of the game with an injury and in came Tyson Bagent.
Since then, Fields has returned, Cousins has departed, Dobbs has entered the chat and Jefferson remains sidelined. And, most importantly, both defenses have improved.
And that takes us to my play - the first half total under 21.5. In the first meeting the first half ended with a score of 12-6. I think we’re in store for another slow, low-scoring effort on primetime between these squads. Division games tend to favor the under and especially when it’s the second meeting of the year between the teams. I think there is a potential for late game garbage points, or even overtime, so that’s why I’m focusing on just the first half for this bet. We get it over a key total number of 21 and can expect these offenses to test things out, that probably won’t work, early on and then eventually they will implement the successful adjustments in the second half.
Play: 1st Half Total Under 21.5 (-115); risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
Rhamondre Stevenson
There is potential for a big day on the ground for the Patriots starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson, against the Giants this Sunday.
Stevenson is coming off his two best performances of the year - 9 carries for 87 rushing yards vs WSH and 20 carries for 88 rushing yards vs IND. He has a great opportunity to replicate that success and then some against New York.
The G-Men are allowing the third most yards per carry in the NFL (4.8), rank 24th in defensive rush EPA and 22nd in defensive rush success rate. Also, DVOA ranks them 28th vs the run.
The QB room is a mess for New England and it shouldn’t take much to move the ball against this Giants defense. I expect them to lean heavily on the ground attack and for Stevenson to continue being the lead, and more efficient, back.
Play: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-114); risk 1.14 units to win 1.00
Derrick Henry
Folks, here we are again. This has been my favorite, and most successful *knocks on wood* prop bet this season. And that wager involves taking the opposing lead running back to score a touchdown against the Panthers.
Carolina is allowing 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game (32nd). The Panthers also rank dead last in defensive rush EPA and defensive rush success rate; they are allowing opposing tailbacks 4.3 yards per rush attempt (22nd).
Derrick Henry has not been nearly as productive as he has been in years past - this is to be expected considering the usage that’s been thrown at him over the years, the limited life span of running backs in general and the fact that the Titans have not been a good team this year, thus, more often than not they are trailing and abandoning the run early to try to play catch up.
They should probably be leading for a majority of this game, which will allow Henry to carve up their weak run defense, especially in the red zone.
Let’s hope this prop continues to hit for us.
Play: Derrick Henry Anytime TD Score (+105); risk 1.00 unit to win 1.05 units
Pending Plays:
Bills +3.5 (-115) @ Eagles
Bears / Vikings 1H Under 21.5 (-115)
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 58.5 Rush Yards (-114)
Derrick Henry Anytime TD Score (+105)
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