Isaiah Pacheco Receiving Yards
It’s been exciting to watch Pacheco emerge in this Kansas City offense. Whenever he touches the ball, he’s always trying to make the most of it.
Pacheco hasn’t just been effective throughout the ground game; he has also made an impact in the air.
The tailback is averaging three receptions on about just as many targets per game. He has accumulated over 23 receiving yards per contest.
The Chiefs opponent this upcoming Sunday - the Broncos - are surrendering 55 receiving yards on 6.7 receptions per game to opposing running backs.
Each opponent that Denver has faced has featured a tailback that has gone over 15.5 receiving yards, which is where Pacheco’s prop is set at. Plus, out of those seven opponents, four of them have had multiple running backs eclipse it.
Pacheco himself has gone over 15.5 in 5/7 games. The two he didn’t were the only games he caught just one pass.
And, this season, his highest volume game that he has seen throughout the air just so happened to be against the Broncos. In that matchup, a couple weeks ago, Pacheco had 6 receptions on 6 targets for 36 receiving yards.
I expect Andy Reid to expose this weakness, yet again, in Sean Payton’s defense.
Isaiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Rec Yards; 1.15 to win 1.00
Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards
It’s been an underwhelming season, to say the least, for the second year back out of Florida.
Thus far, Pierce has averaged 16 carries for 47 rushing yards per game. They are not terrible numbers, but based on the explosiveness we witnessed last season the assumption was that he’d be doing better than 2.9 yards per rush attempt, which is what he is currently averaging.
This week is his time to bounce back, though.
Pierce, after his bye week, will get to face a Panthers run defense that ranks dead last in defensive success rate. Also, Carolina is allowing opposing backs 4.9 yards per carry, which ranks 29th in the NFL.
The Panthers have allowed every opposing lead back to get over this mark of 53.5, except the Saints. And in that game against New Orleans, the Saints lead back at the time - Jamaal Williams - got injured halfway through.
I believe this is the game we see Pierce unleash his true potential. I would’ve put this line at 60.5, so at the current spot of 53.5 that’s a green light for a bet to the over.
Play: Dameon Pierce Over 53.5 Rush Yards (-108); 1.08 units to win 1.00
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