Nikola Vucevic
Typically in the past when I’ve looked to back Vucevic props, it’s been in the fashion of fading him. However, tonight’s matchup, against a weak defense in Sacramento, actually provides an advantageous setting for Vuc.
He is attempting 45% of his shots from mid-range and making 50% of them. Within the whole vicinity of his mid-range shot attempts, specifically, 33% of those looks are determined as coming from short mid-range. From that region, he is connecting on 51% of his attempts.
The Kings are allowing the 28th most shot attempts from all mid-range (34.5%) and the 28th most makes from there (46%). And then, from short mid in particular, they rank 29th in the volume of shots they surrender (26%) and also 29th in makes (47.5%).
Evidently, this is a beneficial matchup for the Bulls’ big man.
Vucevic and the Bulls have faced the Kings just once this season. Back on February 3rd, Sacramento came to Chicago and secured the road win (123-115). Vuc racked up 24 points, making 10-18 field goal attempts, going 1-3 from deep and snagging 12 rebounds along the way.
His points prop for tonight is listed at 19.5, with -104 juice to the over at FanDuel. That’s the play I’m going to make for this meeting on the West Coast.
Since January 31st he’s played in 12 games, and throughout those dozen spots he’s eclipsed this mark in 10 of them. And if he didn’t get ejected this past Friday vs the Bucks, then he would’ve more than likely gone over it another time, as he ended up with 17 points in that game.
Also, I did / do want to explore some Kings’ player props, but not all of them are available; so there is a possibility I make additional wagers revolving around this game later in the day.
Play: Nikola Vucevic Over 19.5 Points (-104); Risk 1.04 units to win 1.00
Kyle Kuzma
Sticking on the West Coast - Kyle Kuzma and the Wizards also get to face a squad that features a poor defense.
The Jazz rank 25th in defensive points per 100 possessions allowed (120) and 24th in defensive effective field goal percentage (56.7%).
Furthermore, and more importantly, where they struggle the most is defending the deep ball. Utah is allowing opponents to shoot just under 40% from three, which ranks them 29th.
Following the issues there, the other spot where the Jazz falter is mid-range. From that territory, the opposition is connecting on 44.5% of their attempts, which ranks them 24th.
Kuzma is taking 40% of his shots from mid-range, and making 39%. And then, from three-point land - he’s attempting 34% and making 35%.
The accuracy is not as high as we’d like it to be, however, the good thing is that Kuzma is taking the most shots on his team (18.9 FGA per game). The volatility is to be expected when attempting so frequently, and in a spot against a sloppy defense he can boost those numbers even more.
We did see the 28-year-old play well against them once this season. On January 25th, in Washington, Kuzma was able to shoot 50% on 24 field goal attempts and log 26 points. That’s a positive in itself, but what also may be a good sign is recognizing that he only went 1-8 from beyond that arc in that game. I already displayed just how abysmal this Utah team is at defending from deep, so we should expect that success rate to increase for Kuzma this time around.
This all leads me to betting on Kuzma over 23.5 points (-110). I wouldn’t play him over 23.5 and wouldn’t lay more than -120 on the juice. Multiple books have that range available - make sure you shop around.
Play: Kyle Kuzma Over 23.5 Points (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
NBA record: 25-10 (+10.46)
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