What’s going on, everyone?
In case you missed it, the newest episode of “Burke’s Beat” dropped earlier today. I gave out a preview, bet and prop leans for Game 5 between the Timberwolves and Mavericks.
Here are the links in case you missed it:
(The timestamp is 0:00 - 13:50)
Spotify:
Apple:
Throughout the episode, I also briefly mentioned the pitching duel between Jack Flaherty and the Detroit Tigers versus Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox.
Originally my interests revolved around Flaherty and his strikeouts prop. However, after seeing the lines released, I’ve gathered more intrigue around Pivetta and his outs recorded prop.
15.5 is where sportsbooks have it listed and the best price to the over is +105 at DraftKings.
Pivetta has pitched just 30 innings throughout six starts, and his ERA is 4.20.
Despite that, there are promising signs for the right-hander. His xFIP is 3.25, his batting average of balls in play (BABIP) is .270 and he’s walking only 1.50 batters per nine innings.
Also, his skill interactive earned run average (SIERA - a backward-looking ERA estimator) is 3.08, which is great.
The total for this game opened 8.5 and has since moved to 7.5. There has been slight support for the home team on the moneyline as well.
I tend to agree with the market’s assessment and believe the Red Sox have a slight advantage and that Pivetta could be primed for a quality outing.
He’s averaging 5.0 IP per start and will be looking to bounce back after giving up 5 ER in 3.1 IP his last appearance versus Milwaukee.
I’m banking on him executing a rebound performance.
Play: Nick Pivetta Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+105); Risk 1.00 units to win 1.05
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