Tuesday Recap:
Record: 1-0 (+1.00)
Tyler Anderson Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-108) Win
Talk about a bet coming down to the wire. The Phillies made this one closer than it should've been. Tyler Anderson, up until the 6th inning, had only been damaged by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, each having hit a solo home run. Anderson had kept his pitch count extremely low and Philadelphia refused to enforce patience at the plate.
That was until the aforementioned 6th inning where Nick Castellanos turned what should've been a single into a two-bagger, which led to an intentional walk of Harper and then a three-run bomb by Alec Bohm. I was watching live and cheering until I realized how quickly it transpired, which then left the bases clear and gave Angels Manager Bob Levin an excuse to keep Anderson in the game. Luckily for our bet, though, J.T. Reaulmuto came up next and proceeded to gift us with a double in the left-center gap. That was finally enough for Levin to take Anderson out of the game and for us to cash our bet.
Let's keep things rolling into today.
Wednesday Preview:
1:05pm ET - Angels @ Phillies
Ahh yes, let's go right back to the well with the Phillies, shall we?
If it seemed like I had a love for fading Angels Pitcher Tyler Anderson, wait until you hear about my passion for Reid Detmers.
Detmers sets off the biggest alarms in my betting brain. Detmers, as I like to call it, has been the ultimate stay away or fade away guy in Major League Baseball. This means if I am betting a game that involves him, I will be fading him and the Angels in some capacity. And if I don't feel confident whatsoever on the other side, I will just avoid the spot altogether and refuse to let myself back Detmers and Los Angeles. A tad harsh perhaps? Sure. But, it's nothing personal, I just don't trust the guy and the proof is in the pudding.
The southpaw has an ERA of 5.03 and an xFIP of 4.28. In most cases, where the xFIP is lower than the ERA, it would signal that positive regression is due. However, I have not and will not buy it for Mr. Detmers. Especially against this Phillies team, like we discussed yesterday, that is hitting lefties fairly well.
In August, vs LHP, Philadelphia is 6th in OPS (.888), wOBA (.375) and wRC+ (137).
And if the numbers I already displayed didn't startle you enough, well, let me show you where the real fun takes place for Detmers.
On the road, Detmers has a 5.69 ERA and a 5.19 xFIP. In comparison, his numbers at home are listed at a 4.56 ERA and a 3.64 xFIP.
Hard to imagine those road numbers improve in this upcoming situation.
Now - for the home team - Cristopher Sanchez will be taking the bump. Sanchez, a lefty himself, has had a solid season:
ERA: 3.33 | xFIP: 3.41 | SIERA: 3.51 | .250 BABIP
Also, Sanchez has pitched slightly better at home (3.34 xFIP compared to 3.57 on the road) and has given up just 2 ER in each of his last three starts.
Hopefully Sanchez keeps that momentum going into a matchup against a struggling Angels offense that, against LHP the past month, is 28th in wRC+ (60), and 27th in both OPS (.596) and wOBA (.259).
Let's hope the boys bring out the brooms in Philly today.
Play: Phillies -1.5 (+120)
3:07pm ET - Nationals @ Blue Jays
Similar to what I wrote on Sunday, the same reigns true for today as the Blue Jays are in dire need of a win. After losing a close one on Tuesday night to the lowly Nationals, it's time for Toronto to bounce back and secure the series dub. Remember, this Blue Jays squad needs to pick up wins as frequently as possible to keep their AL Wild Card hopes alive. And when they face an inferior opponent, such as Washington, there is no excuse to do otherwise.
As we investigate this matchup, it would appear that today is indeed a prime opportunity for Toronto to take advantage, considering the struggling lefty, Patrick Corbin, will be opposing them.
Corbin has an ERA of 4.70, an expected ERA of 6.23 and a FIP of 5.23.
And on the road, Corbin struggles even more so with a FIP of 5.37 - whereas at home his FIP is 3.97.
In August, the Blue Jays are 7th in OPS (.864), wOBA (.367) and wRC+ (136) vs LHP.
Taking the bump for the favorites is Chris Bassitt. The righty has been a tad underwhelming this season, but should be able to perform against a Nationals team that, in the month of August vs RHP, is hitting an OPS of .692, a wOBA of .302 and a wRC+ of 88, which all ranks 22nd.
Bassitt has an ERA of 4.00, and an xFIP of 4.44. So like we've discussed ad naseam, having a higher xFIP than ERA is never a good sign. However, not only do I still believe in Bassitt, but I have more faith that he will rise to the occasion against a poor offense in Washington, and at home where he posts a 3.63 FIP in comparison to a FIP of 5.70 on the road.
Ultimately, even if Bassitt does get roughed up a tad, I have enough confidence in this Blue Jays lineup to produce considerable damage to separate the score. And if Toronto screws us again on our bet, well, let's just say it may leave enough of a sour taste to stay away from this volatile bunch for a while. But let's hope we don't get to that point.
Play: Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)
MLB Record: 74-63-1 (+1.51)
Futures Pending:
Logan Webb NL Cy Young (33/1)
Brewers Under 85.5 Wins (-115)
Blue Jays (20/1) to Win World Series
Marlins to Miss Playoffs (-140)
Spencer Strider 8/1 to Win NL Cy Young
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