We've got a huuuuuuge slate on this ice this evening. I've narrowed down a pair of plays that I like out of the 16 matchups.
Maple Leafs @ Capitals
Dailyfaceoff.com has confirmed that Joseph Woll will be the starting goalie for the Maple Leafs, and Darcy Kuemper will be tending the pipes for the Capitals.
Let's take a look at their numbers:
Joseph Woll:
1-1-0, 1.69 GAA, 95% SV
2.34 GSAx (18th)
Darcy Keumper
1-1-1, 3.56 GAA, 88.7% SV
-0.93 GSAx (46th)
It's evident that Woll has been the better of the two goalies thus far.
As for each team - Toronto gets the nod there as well. The Maple Leafs rank 3rd in xGF/60 (3.24) and12th in xGF% (53.7%).
Washington comes in at 26th in xGF% (53.7%) and 22nd in xGF/60 (2.46). Also, the Capitals rank 27th in xGA/60 (3.06).
The best price I've seen for Toronto is -169, and that's what I'll be rolling with.
Play: Maple Leafs ML (-169); 1.69 unit to win 1.00
Canucks @ Predators
The Predators have been a very different team this year - offensively speaking. They are coming into the zone more aggressively and putting more pucks on the net (31.6 SF/60). Last year, they averaged just 28.5 SF/60 minutes.
And, for Nashville, going up against a defense in Vancouver - that is allowing 3.5 expected goals per 60 minutes, which ranks them 31st in the NHL, it should add up to this being a favorable matchup for them.
Evolvinghockey.com has the Preds number one in the league in terms of xGF% (61.4%). Also, they rank 2nd in xGF/60 (3.3) and defensively they are 3rd in xGA/60 (2.08).
The numbers don't stack up quite the same for the road squad. Not only are the Canucks second worst in xGA/60, but also in xGF% - and in that regard they come in at 40.3%. Plus, Vancouver is 26th in xGF/60 (2.33).
As for the goalie matchup, the Canucks do have a slight advantage here.
Thatcher Demko
1-2, 2.57 GAA, 93% SV
3.99 GSAx (9th)
Juuse Saros
3-3-1, 2.85 GAA, 91.5% SV
1.73 GSAx (22nd)
Demko has been solid, but he does not have the sample size that Saros does. And with having played more games, Saros has still held his own for the most part. I'm expecting him to do that this evening as well.
Vancouver is playing their 5th straight road game since October 14th, whereas Nashville has not only won their last two spots, but have been posted up at home since the 21st.
We've seen some line movement gravitate toward the home team. The SuperBook, in Las Vegas, opened the Preds at -112, and we now see them laying -125.
Can't say I disagree with that action.
Here in Illinois the best number I've seen available is -120.
Play: Preds ML (-120); 1.20 units to win 1.00
*NHL TERMS:
xGF% - Expected Goals For Percentage
xGF/60 - Expected Goals For per 60 minutes
xGA/60 - Expected Goals Allowed per 60 minutes
GSAx - Goals Saved Above Expected
GAA - Goals Against Average
SV% - Save Percentage
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