6.5-point Teaser - Dolphins PK / Jags -2.5 (-130)
It’s never ideal to elect a 6.5-point teaser as opposed to a 6, but for the moment it’s the best route to take for this specific selection.
At FanDuel, the Jags are an 8.5-point favorite, so the 6-point teaser would be feasible, right?
Well in a literal sense of being able to do it - yes. But, in a valuable sense the answer is no because they are charging you -134 to do so, which is outrageous.
And if we wanted to parlay to moneylines at the best available prices, the cheapest number would be -147.
So instead, if we mosey on over to DraftKings, we can do the 6.5-point teaser on the Jags and Dolphins for the price of just -130!
Make sure you shop around, folks.
Miami sets up well in this spot because they get to take on an incredibly underwhelming Broncos defense that allowed Sam freaking Howell to torch them last weekend.
Now, on the road, Denver gets to attempt to limit the most electric offense in the NFL.
The Broncos rank 30th in total DVOA defense, including 28th against the pass and 20th vs the run.
Metrically speaking, Russell Wilson has not performed all too bad. But when you watch the film, you can still see issues that were constant last season.
He has moments early on when he can be solid with the scripted plays Sean Payton provides him, but then late in the game, when sh*t hits the fan - he crumbles.
So the offensive juices may be flowing from Wilson and company to start, but ultimately they will struggle to keep up with the scoring Tua Tagovailoa will be providing.
As for the Jags….
Trevor Lawrence is due for a great game. He looked very poor against the Chiefs defense last week and has a great opportunity to bounce back against a Houston defense that ranks 26th in defensive EPA (expected points added) per play.
Furthermore, the Texans ranks dead least (32nd) against the run, according to DVOA metrics, including a ranking of 19th vs the passing game.
Jacksonville will be able to alleviate some of the strain off of Lawrence early on by attacking the ground, controlling time of possession and then setting up their QB in favorable situations.
On the other side, Houston QB CJ Stroud hasn’t looked awful, but let’s face it - this is a rebuilding squad. And as nice as Stroud may look from time to time, it ain’t gonna get them any wins. But, it will keep their spirits high for next season and beyond.
Also, Stroud will face an improving Jags defense that ranks 5th best in defensive EPA per play.
This is a get-right spot for Jacksonville after their crap performance last week. But let’s not sweat out laying almost double-digits with them. Rather, let's tease them down to under a field goal and make this a tad bit easier on ourselves.
Bengals ML (-145) vs Rams
To be honest I did take this moneyline, on Wednesday, at the price of -130. Clearly that number is no longer available. -145 is the best option I see out there.
I have no issue with laying -2.5 as opposed to laying the chalk on the moneyline, but the spread is trending toward a consensus -3. And considering it’s not under the key number anymore, personally, I would be fine laying more on the moneyline instead of getting a flat three.
We pushed on a flat three last Monday night with the Saints, so let’s try to avoid that scenario this time around.
Also, it may not be a bad call to pay for a little more comfort in this spot. Joe Burrow has looked terrible and we’re not quite sure he’ll even be 100%.
Burrow’s calf was acting up again, so his availability for this game was uncertain. That’s the reason this line had moved down to as low as it did at the beginning of this week.
However, Coach Zac Taylor said he sees “encouraging” signs on Burrow’s calf.
So after those comments were uttered, the line reversed course and trended back toward the home team.
Again, we all recognize that the Bengals have looked awful - there’s no denying that. But it’s a similar pattern to what we witnessed from them last year.
Burrow missed the preseason because of an injury, then struggled in the beginning pair of games that season.
Burrow and the Bengals, in those first two weeks, lost 23-20 in overtime against Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers and then lost 20-17 at Jerry World against Cooper Rush and the Cowboys.
In week three they got to take on Joe Flacco and the Jets and proceeded to crush them 27-12, and went on to suffering only two more losses the entire regular season.
As for the Rams, well, they have looked impressive - considering what we all labeled them as being heading into this year.
But we have to recognize why that is. And that’s because Rams Coach Sean McVay got the benefit of facing two division opponents right out of the gate.
That means familiarity and understanding of what the opposition is going to present.
So it’s an advantage to a team like the LA Rams, to face the Seahawks and 49ers - because McVay has a general sense of how to scheme against them so they don’t get blown out or exposed.
He won’t have that same edge, though, on the road against a pissed off and hungry Bengals team.
Pissed off because they haven’t won a game this season and pissed off because this is the team they lost to in the Super Bowl a couple years ago.
Even if Burrow is still a little banged up, Cincy can look to hone in on the running attack considering the Rams rank 30th against the run in DVOA metrics, and allow 5.3 yards per rush attempt (30th).
This is the time for the Bengals to turn it around and for the Rams’ spark to dwindle.
Potential Plays I’m Waiting on:
Kenneth Walker Anytime Touchdown
The best price I’ve seen on this so far is available at Caesars and it is listed at -103.
I’m fine with laying that, but I want to see if we can get an even better price. Currently, only Caesars and DraftKings have this bet listed.
I favor this wager because the Panthers have allowed four rushing touchdowns thus far. Two to Tyler Allgeier and two to Tony Jones Jr.
Carolina has been worse against the run than the pass in their first two spots. The Panthers are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and rank 31st against the run, according to DVOA.
If Pete Carroll has an opportunity to run the ball successfully, we know damn sure he will.
Last week, Walker got two rushing touchdowns in Detroit. That game stayed close and Seattle held on for the dub. The week prior, the Seahawks offense couldn’t get anything going vs the Rams, ended up trailing for a majority of it, which led them to abandoning the run.
Seattle should have no issues overcoming this weak Carolina team, which means they can utilize their ground attack and give their starting tailback, Walker, ample opportunities to punch in six points this Sunday.
Kirk Cousins Passing Props
Cousins gets to face a Chargers pass defense that ranks dead last in DVOA rankings.
Brandon Staley’s secondary also allows the most yards per completion (13.9) in the entire NFL.
We know this Vikings offense looooooves to let Kirk sling it and get that play action going.
Here is Cousins’ statline throughout his first two games:
Vs TB: 33-34, 344 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
@ PHI: 31-44, 364 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
This is expected to be a high scoring affair and in order to get it there, these QBs are going to have to throw it. We know damn well Cousins will be doing just that, so let’s try to capitalize off of it.
But, like I said, I’m waiting for numbers and props to populate. As of Thursday afternoon, no books have his pass completions or pass attempts props posted.
So when they are listed, and if I like the number, I will be sure to make you all aware. But be on the lookout for those.
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