Recently added prop bets can be heard in the video below:
Risking 1.00 unit to win 1.25 on Bijan Robinson
Risking 1.20 units to win 1.00 on Russell Wilson
Ravens @ Jags
It’s been a rough past couple of games for the Jaguars, who not only lost as double-digit favorites at home, in overtime, to the Bengals (34-31), but then traveled to Cleveland and fell victim to 38-year-old Joe Flacco (31-27).
It only gets more difficult for Doug Perderson’s team, with the Ravens coming to town this Sunday Night.
Baltimore is following a miraculous win against the Rams this past week, as it took a punt return touchdown in overtime to seal the dub. The Ravens defense had one of their worst outings, however, luckily for them (and our teaser bet), Lamar Jackson played like a stud and came through in the clutch.
I believe we are going to see more magic from Jackson down in Florida.
The Jags have allowed opposing offenses to average 5.6 yards per play (30th) and over their last three games that average has risen to 6.0. On the other side, the Ravens offense racks up 5.8 YPP (T-2nd) and over their last three games have increased that to 6.1.
Jacksonville’s defense has been solid against the run, as they rank 2nd in rush success rate and allow just 4.0 yards per rush attempt, however, against the pass they are giving up 10.5 yards per completion to opposing quarterbacks (T-26th).
On that side of the ball the Jags are a volatile group, and, as of late, they have regressed. If we take a look at how they’ve stacked up since week 10, it’s not a pretty picture.
Coach Pederson’s defense, in that span of time, ranks 28th in success rate, 27th in EPA/Play and even 25th in rush EPA.
That is great news for Baltimore because they rank first in both rush EPA and rush success rate, offensively, this season. Plus, it’s supposed to be a windier game - so they may need to rely more on their ground attack; so it’s appearing that it’s a great time to catch this struggling Jacksonville defense.
The Ravens, as we know, can do it all, though. This offensive bunch has been rock solid all year. They are 5th in success rate, 6th in EPA/Play and also top ten in terms of drop back EPA / success rate.
But, how will their defense hold up? I mentioned how they seemed to regress last week against the Rams…so will anything change against Trevor Lawrence?
Well, on the year, the Jags offense ranks 13th in success rate, 16th in EPA/Play, and 29th in rush EPA / success rate. The rushing aspect is important to note because that is the weaker part of Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens are allowing 4.3 yards per carry, (4.9 over the last three games) and let Kyren Williams rush the ball 25 times for 114 yards in their last game.
But, if the Jaguars are having a rough time running the ball efficiently, then maybe John Harbaugh’s defense can look somewhat formidable in that regard and fix those gaps.
Also, as a defense overall - the Ravens allow the second fewest yards per play (4.3) and have the second best red zone defense (40.5%) in the NFL.
Jacksonville’s red zone defense comes in at 19th, as they’re allowing opponents to score a touchdown at a rate of 56.4%. What’s remarkable is seeing how that stat has gone up to 100% over the last three games! Meaning, in that span, when the Jaguars opponents have crossed the red zone, they have ended up scoring a touchdown each and every time. And now they get a Baltimore group that has a red zone offensive efficiency rate of 62.8%, which ranks 6th.
This line has jumped back and forth within the range of -3 to -4. I believe that Baltimore is the correct side. It’s not just because the Jags have looked poor over their past couple of games, it’s because the numbers show that they are indeed the inferior team and, furthermore, they are very banged up.
The Ravens are a much better team than what we witnessed last week…but are the Jaguars? I’m hesitant to think so right now.
Play: Ravens -3 (-112); risk 1.12 units to win 1.00
Cowboys @ Bills
The best matchup of week 15 will be played in Buffalo where the Bills host the red-hot Cowboys.
This spot, more than others, should be an advantageous setting for the home team. Not only do they have a great crowd to begin with, but they also have the acclimation to the outdoors. Their opponent, however, is a dome team. How much stock can we put into that? Well, enough to make it worth a mention. And in what’s expected to be a tightly contested matchup - such as this one - you have to make note of any edge you can.
So let’s discuss where we see some other ones.
Defensively, throughout the season as a whole, Dallas gets the nod. They rank 3rd in EPA/Play and 5th in DVOA. They aren’t flawless, though, as they rank 17th in success rate and 31st in rush success rate (more on that in a moment).
Buffalo comes in at 14th in EPA/Play, 15th in DVOA defense, 18th in success rate and 23rd in drop back success rate.
In terms of yards per play allowed - the Cowboys are surrendering 4.9 and the Bills are at 5.3. Although, over both of these squads’ last three matchups, their numbers have altered fairly drastically. In that span, the Dallas defense has proceeded to give up 5.8 YPP, while ranking 24th in success rate, whereas the Buffalo crew is allowing 4.9 YPP and ranking 12th in success rate. So there has been some notable regression for America’s team and some slight progression for their opposition.
Both of these teams have similar red zone defenses, but Josh Allen and his crew have been better when they possess the ball in their opponent’s red zone. The Bills are scoring a touchdown when crossing their opponent’s 20-yard line 67% of the time this season, which is good enough for 2nd in the league. The Cowboys rank 15th in this regard - doing so at a rate of 56%.
Let’s bring this convo back to the ground attack, though. If you recall, I mentioned that Dallas' defense is 31st in rush success rate this season. But why is that noteworthy?
It’s notable because if there is a weakness to the Cowboys defense, and it happens to be against the run, then that adds an exposed element for the Bill’s offense to hone in on and attack.
Buffalo’s offense is 2nd in rush success rate and 3rd in rush EPA. If they can establish some rhythm on the ground, then the Bills can relieve some of the strain and pressure off of Allen, control the time of possession and, in turn, conduct a successful offensive game plan. That’s what the potential weakness of this Dallas run defense provides.
Also, it will be a necessity for Sean McDermott’s offense to implement that strategy considering the weather conditions will feature heavy wind gusts and potentially some precipitation.
Will Mike McCarthy’s group be able to do the same, though? Well, they’ve struggled all year to create a steady run game. Tony Pollard has seemingly only feasted against the worst of teams; and - as we know - their upcoming opponent will not be one of them.
Dallas is 9th in offensive rush EPA and 12th in rush success rate. I am concerned that the Cowboys will not be able to consistently establish ground control and, thus, force Prescott into many uncomfortable throwing situations. He does not fare well when the pressure rises and his back is against the wall.
Look, I give all the credit in the world to how great he and his team looked last week against the Eagles and against all the other crappy defenses, but that won’t fly against the Bills. They are going to attempt to wreak havoc against Prescott and take him out of his cozy pocket.
This is a massive game for Buffalo and, quite frankly, a much needed one. They have an opportunity to prove to themselves and everyone out there that they can still be legit contenders. Dallas might be feeling all fat and happy after a dominating win against their division rivals, whereas the Bills will be feeling hungry and motivated…and I’d prefer to back those emotions.
Play: Bills Moneyline (-125) vs Cowboys; risk 1.25 units to win 1.00
Pending:
Ravens -3 (-112) @ Jaguars
Bills ML (-125) vs Cowboys
Bijan Robsinson Anytime TD (+125)
Russell Wilson Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
NFL Record: 29-22-1 (+5.13)
***I will be adding more plays in the near future. Be sure to subcribe here to the website, or follow on Twitter: @dannyburke5, so you get notified when those wagers are added***
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