Dolphins @ Chargers
We get a rematch of last year’s Week 14 showdown, where Brandon Staley and the Chargers discovered how to limit Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Staley conducted his defense in a manner that forced Tagovailoa to throw to his receivers toward the sidelines. LA’s defense limited the cross field patterns, where Tua had thrived, and exposed his weaker arm.
The recipe had been released from that point on and numerous opponents followed suit.
Not only was he hindered in that regard, but, as we all know, the offensive line had issues as well. Tua suffered various hits and we witnessed him endure multiple injuries.
The Chargers defense will be healthy and have Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack ready to attack on both sides of the line.
Offensively speaking, Los Angeles brings in Kellen Moore to take over the OC role. Moore did solid work down in Dallas, despite the limitations at quarterback, and the expectation is a huge improvement with one of the most talented gunslingers in the game in Justin Herbert.
Herbert will still have his guys Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to target. Plus, the addition of former TCU WR Quentin Johnston, should provide another outlet to capitalize on.
Furthermore, a constant issue for the Chargers has been their offensive line. But they’ll get reinforcements with Rahsawn Slater back in the mix and hope they can protect their franchise asset in Herbert, while also opening up lanes for RB Austin Ekeler.
At the end of the day, I still have so many concerns over Tagovailoa. His lack of protection he receives, his limitations on the arm strength and more.
Also, I love that Staley had one of his best in-game defensive adjustments against this squad just last year. He should feel confident going against this team and look to limit their speedy receivers once again.
His seat is getting warmer and he needs to make a statement right out of the gate. No more back and forth on whether or not he should implement his aggressive style, or choose the decision that will make social media happy.
Trust your instinct, Staley.
Most books opened Los Angeles as a two-and-a-half point favorite. However, now we are seeing the home team painted as a three-point favorite across the market.
I’m upset I missed the spread below three, and don’t want to potentially suffer a push if it lands on it; so I’m content with laying a tad more to remain under it.
Play: Chargers -2.5 (-125)
Packers @ Bears
Talk about line movement.
If I recall correctly, the Bears were laying as much as -3.5 over the summer for this Week 1 spot.
I had confidence in this bunch then - and I still do.
I get that the aggressive movement toward the Cheeseheads should cause some worry in my conviction on Da Bears, but, rather, it’s helping me get a cheaper price on what I consider to be the better team.
And yes, blah blah blah - I get it. I’m a Bears fan and you expect me to back my boys.
But, trust me - I’m not going to voluntarily suffer as both a bettor and a fan unless I truly have confidence in them going into a game.
I get why there is infatuation with Green Bay. It’s a divisional game in the first week of the season, and, let’s face it - Jordan Love is probably going to be a solid QB.
It’s painful to accept that as a Bears fan, but it’s more than likely the truth.
However, Fields is still the better QB. He has LEGIT weapons now, a little bit better protection and a year of experience under the same playbook to improve upon.
Speaking of weapons, let’s not forget that Love will be without his top one in Christian Watson. Watson hurt his hamstring this past week - as did Romeo Doubs. Doubs, though, is expected to play, but having that lingering injury can’t be great.
The lack of top receiving threats should benefit this Chicago defense.
Although, that side of the ball will still continue to be the weak part of this Bears squad, for sure.
However, the secondary has a chance to be some absolute dogs. They are loaded with playmakers in Eddie Jackson, Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker and Jaylon Johnson. It’s going to be a challenging first start against those fellas for one Jordan Love.
As for the Packers defense, I’ve been hearing how great they are going to be for the past three years. And you know what, they’ve never lived up to the hype.
Green Bay has a strong defense, sure, but they’ve never been at the top of the league like all of their fans continuously predict them to be.
Last year the Packers were a complete liability against the run. They allowed the fifth most yards per rush attempt (5.0) in the 2022-2023 season.
The Bears, last year, averaged the most yards per rush attempt (5.4) and the third most rushing attempts per game (32.8).
Granted, I do hope OC Luke Getsy calls more passing plays, but still - it’s nice to know that Chicago should be able to ground and pound whenever they feel they need to pick up some yardage.
I’m fully expecting to stress out, yell and rethink why I invest so much fandom into this football team during the duration of this game. But, I’m going to hold strong in my belief that this team is taking a stride forward this year, and hope that it begins today.
I’m sure it’ll come down to a field goal.
Let’s just hope that kick comes off the foot of Cairo Santos.
Play: Bears ML (-118)
So that’s what I’m rocking with as of this moment. I’ve considered other angles such as taking the points with the Steelers, or teasing them up and pairing them with the Commanders.
I haven’t pulled trigger on anything surrounding that just yet. If I do, I’ll be sure to Tweet about it.
Best of luck and enjoy NFL Week 1!
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