Panthers Under 5.5 Wins (+125)
Available at BetRivers
I don’t care that we’re only two games into the season, and I'm aware that I could’ve gotten this win total a couple spots higher before the season began.
But don’t give me that “you can’t bet that now, you missed the best number and you’re overreacting” crap.
I’ve seen enough to know what this team isn’t. And that is a winning unit.
Trust me, as a Bears fan, I have this innate ability to realize when a roster with an underperforming quarterback is going to be consistently disappointing all year.
And unfortunately for you, Panthers fans - your team fits the bill.
Now this is not to say that Bryce Young is a terrible QB, that he's screwed, or anything like that.
He is just set up in a very poor situation to begin his career.
This Carolina offensive line flat out stinks. According to Pro Football Reference, Young is only getting 1.4 seconds to throw the ball, after it’s snapped to him, before the pocket collapses. That is the third fewest amount of time allowed to a QB throughout the entire NFL.
This offensive line was a MASSIVE red flag heading into the season and it’s living up to its concerns.
Young is already undersized, has limited receiving weapons and now has to worry about a lack of protection on damn near every play. This is going to stunt his growth as a successful QB in year one.
The defense should be fine enough to keep them competitive in games, but the offense won’t have enough juice to win out in those spots.
Plus, the other huge concern is just the difficulty of their remaining schedule.
Here’s how it plays out, and next to it you will find what I believe the result will be:
Week 3 @ SEA (Loss)
Week 4 vs MIN (Toss-up)
Week 5 @ DET (Loss)
Week 6 @ MIA (Loss)
Week 8 vs HOU (Win)
Week 9 vs IND (Toss-up)
Week 10 @ CHI TNF / Short Week (Loss)
Week 11 vs DAL (Loss)
Week 12 @ TEN (Loss)
Week 13 @ TB (Loss)
Week 14 @ NO (Loss)
Week 15 vs ATL (Toss-up)
Week 16 vs GB (Toss-up)
Week 17 @ JAX (Loss)
Week 18 vs TB (Toss-up)
Only in one game do I have legit confidence in this team winning. And that comes after their bye week where they will be hosting the rebuilding Houston Texans. Even though I favor the Panthers in that spot - let’s not kid ourselves - CJ Stroud has been the better QB.
There are a plethora of toss-up games, but in a majority of those I still give the slight advantage to the opposition.
And, yes, despite how execrable this Bears team has been, I still think they can manage a dub against Carolina.
Even if you disagree with me on the macro view of their path, we should be able to agree on this:
The Panthers will lose this upcoming Sunday against the Seahawks.
And after that happens, their adjusted odds will not be as juicy. It will either be a minus price to the under, or, we could even see the win total come down to a flat five.
I get that I’m a tad late to the party on fading this team, but Carolina was a massive question mark group, for myself, coming into this season.
And I’d rather jump in now after getting a better understanding of what they are as opposed to waiting even longer to where the number is really not bettable.
We can still take advantage for the time being; so don’t hold out too long on fading potentially one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Mike McDaniel Coach of the Year (+850)
Available at FanDuel
Again, freak out all you want on me not getting as good of a number as I could’ve before the season started, but if we’re looking at it from this point going forward then it's still a solid price.
I have not made a COY bet thus far and this appears to be an opportune time to do so on Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel.
His offense is lighting it up and it seems there is no end in sight. The only way that it's going to come to a halt is if there is an injury.
*Knocks on wood for that not to occur*
Miami gets a favorable matchup this week with Denver coming to town, and after they win and put up a healthy amount of points against what now appears to be a weaker Broncos defense - the odds will shorten once again.
As silly as what I’m about to bring up seems, it actually is important (to some extent) to recognize.
The public is slowly falling in love with this coach. Even though it may be insignificant, that little clip of McDaniel running away from the cameraman at halftime on Sunday Night was great for him.
The clip was replayed all over the internet and people were commenting how much they loved it, along with his personality. He was already a likable guy around the league, but when he does little things like that goofy sprint he becomes even more enjoyable to watch.
Remember, this award has the human element of emotion factored into it. People are voting on this and if they have the option to choose a successful head coach who is also incredibly personable - that only helps his chances.
Call it stupid - I understand if you do.
But I pointed out a similar observation last year with Sauce Gardner.
I was a tad late on getting him for Defensive Rookie of the Year, but was still able to cash around +300.
If you recall, Gardner was already playing exceptionally well, but then really solidified himself as a top contender in the market after his performance at Lambeau Field against Aaron Rodgers.
But it wasn’t just his play that prompted him to the top - it was what he did after the game.
Gardner could be seen parading around the stadium repping a cheesehead on his noggin, celebrating his and his team’s performance that day.
The public was enamored with that scene and afterwards kept seeking out the entertaining and talented cornerback to witness what he would do next.
Courtesy of Stacy Revere
Even though I hadn’t gotten the best price I could - at that moment it was still a buy low, sell high opportunity, relatively speaking.
He had gained everyone’s attention and as long as he didn’t get injured or play terribly the remainder of the year then it was his award to lose.
I recognize that it’s a little different with this award as there won’t be as many opportunities for McDaniel to showboat after the game - but it’s something to be cognizant about.
Miami has a great opportunity to win the division and in turn win this award for McDaniel.
And even if the Dolphins struggle at one point, or another coach is catching fire in this betting market - then because of the price we’re getting now, we can be set up for a chance to hedge with another coach if need be later on.
Futures Bet to Monitor / Consider
Jalen Carter DROY (3/1)
I don’t want to just chase the favorite just to do it in this award. Carter will probably end up being the most dominant defensive player in his rookie class, but Will Anderson is making a name for himself as well, early on, and could keep this race interesting.
But, Carter did contribute to a rookie NFL record by racking up six pressures on 32 pass rushes, which is tied for the most by a rookie defensive tackle in any game over the past five seasons. He did so in week one against the Patriots.
Furthermore, PFF currently grades Carter at 90.2 and Anderson at 72.1, at their respective position.
Plus, Carter’s next game is once again spotlighted during primetime, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So that’s another opportunity for everyone’s attention to be honed in on him.
Also, to bring up my struggles as a Bears fan once again, it would be classic if a player that Chicago passed on, in arguably their most needed position at the time, went on to win this award.
Par for the course, my friends.
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