How’s it going everyone? I have returned after my Labor Day Weekend Hiatus. I hope you all had a great one and enjoyed the calm before the storm that is the start of the NFL Season.
I'll have plenty of of topics to discuss leading up into Week 1, ranging from survivor picks, teaser plays, props, best bets and more.
But before I go deep into the first week of the season, how about we take a look at the grand scheme of things? And by that I mean my futures bets.
The wagers I am about to display have been discussed numerous times on other outlets and programming over the course of this summer, but I wanted to write it down as well so I could share my complete thoughts on each play for any newcomers.
So let’s dive in.
Jets Under 9.5 Wins (+125)
(Currently, the best number offered on the Under is +105 at BetMGM in IL)
This is the first futures bet that I made over this summer. When I saw the number listed at 9.5, I was a tad bit surprised. With the win total as high as it was, my expectation was for the juice to be leaning heavily toward the under.
Nope.
The juice was not only on the over, but +125 was being dished out on the under! Are you kidding me? I couldn’t react quickly enough.
And, let me be clear - no - this is not the Bears fan in me coming in with some anti-Aaron Rodgers mentality. This is an assessment of the difficulty of transitioning, scheduling and overoptimism.
Let’s begin with the transition.
Aaron Rodgers is not known to be a person who develops smooth relationships. This has been made apparent on and off the field.
After being in Green Bay for 17 seasons, Rodgers is not only moving to a different team, but a different coach, division and conference. That new coach, Robert Saleh, is relatively inexperienced and that new conference and division is a lot tougher than what he’s been accustomed to for a majority of his career.
This is a man who, last year, vocalized his reluctance in wanting to build around and trust new, young receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
Rodgers loves to have his veteran friends around (Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb) and also loves to be in control. Now he does have both Lazard and Cobb in the mix, but that’s not where the most important relationship in the receiving corps is going to lie.
It is going to revolve alongside second-year WR Garrett Wilson.
We’ve all heard amazing things throughout camp surrounding the relationship between these two. And maybe that success translates to the regular season and I’m overthinking this.
But, there is certainly a scenario where things could get rocky.
If Rodgers and Wilson have miscommunication early on, or if Rodgers doesn’t like the coaching decisions from Saleh and the rest of the staff, he may feel like he’s not in control.
This may occur, and, if it’s going to - it’ll probably happen in the beginning stages of the season.
Let’s move onto that, shall we?
The first six weeks of the schedule are incredibly daunting for this Jets team. Here’s how it’s shaping out:
Week 1 vs Buffalo (MNF)
Week 2 @ Dallas
Week 3 vs New England
Week 4 vs Kansas City (SNF)
Week 5 @ Denver
Week 6 vs Philadelphia
After that grueling path of games to begin the Rodgers campaign, New York gets a bye in Week 6.
But leading up to that bye week, we have to recognize how difficult that stretch truly is.
I don’t care what team you are, or who your QB is; that is not a fun way to begin your year.
And that is an especially unideal way to begin your season if you are joining a new team that holds a different roster, playbook and ideology than your prior one.
So, for a moment, let’s envision a scenario where things aren’t necessarily going to plan for Rodgers and company.
Which outcome is more plausible?
Rodgers taking the heat, accepting the blame and moving on, or the future hall of famer pointing fingers in other directions where it’s easier to assert the fault?
Considering we’ve witnessed this one before - I think we know the answer.
Now of course that may not happen. Even if the Jets do struggle, perhaps Rodgers does hold himself accountable and appears incredibly mature and respectful among his new squad.
However, I won’t believe it until I see it.
Furthermore, if you’re moving on to a new team, and an inexperienced one that feels they have a lot to prove with the bar being set so high - wouldn't you prefer your “easier” portion of the schedule to be at the beginning of the year as opposed to later?
There are going to be learning curves for everyone on this unit. And once those hurdles are met in the beginning stages of the year, it will potentially cause frustration and disruption within the locker room. And that could give Rodgers a feeling of annoyance and impatience with his younger teammates. That may cause ripple effects that hinder this organization for the remainder of the year.
In an ideal world, New York would have their more favorable games at the beginning so that even if they struggle during some moments they will be talented enough to overcome it and learn from their mistakes.
However, they won’t be able to get away with doing that during this brutal six-week period. And because of that, it will be easy to feel like they are not living up to their expectations they, along with a lot of other people, have set for themselves.
That could cause disruption early on.
Speaking of expectations, let’s wrap this analysis up with that.
Now, to be honest, this is a bit of recency bias in this upcoming comparison. But we should recognize that it does occur quite frequently in similar situations.
If we recall last year, we saw a veteran, future hall of fame QB shift to a different team, with a different conference, division and head coach.
Clearly I am talking about Russell Wilson and the Broncos.
The public looooooved the idea of Wilson moving to a new system that would “Let Russ cook!”
The division winner bets were flying in for Denver, the MVP bets for Wilson and so on and so forth.
Well, as we all know, the result was quite the opposite of all of that and the season for the Broncos turned into one of the biggest disappointments I have personally ever seen out of a football team.
And that’s coming from a Bears and Cornhuskers fan.
My point is, typically when the public becomes enamored with a new-look team heading into an upcoming season - they fall short of expectations.
(I’m looking at you as well, Detroit)
Of course this doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed for the Jets, but, historically speaking - it’s a tough hill to climb when that bar is set so high.
We’ll see if Rodgers and the rest of the crew make me eat crow. And if they do - hats off to them; but I’m not buying it.
My Prediction on the Jets 2023-2024 Schedule:
Week 1 vs Buffalo (Toss-Up)
Week 2 @ Dallas (Loss)
Week 3 vs New England (Win)
Week 4 vs Kansas City (SNF) (Loss)
Week 5 @ Denver (Toss-Up)
Week 6 vs Philadelphia (Loss)
Week 7 - Bye Week
Week 8 @ New York Giants (WIN)
Week 9 vs Los Angeles Chargers (Toss-Up)
Week 10 @ Las Vegas (Win)
Week 11 @ Buffalo (Loss)
Week 12 vs Miami (Toss-Up)
Week 13 vs Atlanta (Win)
Week 14 vs Houston (Win)
Week 15 @ Miami (Loss)
Week 16 vs Washington (Win)
Week 17 @ Cleveland (Toss-Up)
Week 18 @ New England (Toss-Up)
Winnable Games: 6
Losable Games: 5
Toss-Up Games: 6
Final Prediction: 9-8
*Winnable Games: Spots I believe to be the biggest advantage and will more than likely win*
*Losable Games: Spots I believe to be the most disadvantageous and will more than likely lose*
*Toss-Up Games: The 50/50 spots. Could go either way depending on numerous factors*
Falcons Under 8.5 Wins (+110)
(Currently, the best number offered on the Under is +120 at BetMGM & Caesars in IL)
I must’ve missed some major event where Desmond Ridder became a quality quarterback.
It’s clear that the betting market is more bullish on not only Ridder, but this Atlanta team as a whole than I am.
The Falcons are looking to improve on a 7-10 effort last year, and hope a spark can ignite via their first-round draft pick, Bijan Robinson.
Robinson, the tailback out of Texas, has incredibly high expectations heading into his rookie season. Is the impact of a rookie running back enough to assume this team can get to 9 wins? And is it worth laying a price in that conviction?
No, it’s not.
See, as great as Robinson may be right out of the gate, Atlanta still has plenty of unknowns and concerns.
For example, the aforementioned Desmond Ridder, last season, appeared in just four games, had 115 pass attempts, completed 73 of them (63.5%) and totaled just 708 passing yards.
Ridder threw only two passing touchdowns in that span, but also no interceptions.
It’s not like Ridder was elite on his feet either. The Cincinnati Bearcats product rushed only 16 times for 64 yards.
Head Coach Arthur Smith, had his offense rank 2nd in rushing attempts per game last season with 32.9.
So it makes sense why this organization wanted to invest in a top-tier running back this past draft.
And while that may be fine and dandy - it’s not what makes a winning team.
In this day and age you have to be willing to throw the ball consistently and be able to do it at a successful rate - obviously.
Let’s take a look at their schedule.
My Prediction on the Falcons 2023-2024 Schedule:
Week 1 vs CAR (Toss-Up)
Week 2 vs GB (Toss-Up)
Week 3 @ DET (Loss)
Week 4 @ JAX (Loss)
Week 5 vs Houston (Win)
Week 6 vs Washington (Win)
Week 7 @ TB (Toss-Up)
Week 8 @ TEN (Loss)
Week 9 vs MIN (Loss)
Week 10 @ ARI (Win)
Week 11 - Bye
Week 12 vs Saints (Toss-Up)
Week 13 @ NYJ (Loss)
Week 14 vs TB (Win)
Week 15 @ CAR (Loss)
Week 16 vs Colts (Win)
Week 17 @ CHI (Loss)
Week 18 @ Saints (Toss-Up)
Winnable Games: 5
Losable Games: 7
Toss-Up Games: 5
Final Prediction: 7-10
*Winnable Games: Spots I believe to be the biggest advantage and will more than likely win*
*Losable Games: Spots I believe to be the most disadvantageous and will more than likely lose*
*Toss-Up Games: The 50/50 spots. Could go either way depending on numerous factors*
At best I see this unit getting to 7 wins. And that seventh win may come in the final game of the season due to New Orleans having already wrapped up the top spot in the division.
I won’t go into detail for every game on the schedule, but the first two are certainly the most intriguing.
Will it tell us a lot about this team? Yes.
But, we have to understand that we shouldn’t overreact if they were to win both games. My realistic expectation is they split and go 1-1. But, if they should win both games, I won’t fret.
I already have my preconceived notions set with this team, and considering I have those spots as toss-ups, it wouldn’t shock me to see them win both. So if that’s the case, it’s not going to change my handicap on this team.
Rather, it may offer us an opportunity at an even better price to bet the Under on this team.
Don’t forget about those mid-season adjusted win totals, folks. That is where some of the best value can be found and we may have a possibility to seek that with this Atlanta team.
To wrap up my thoughts on this bet, I understand there are playmakers on the offense side of the ball (aside from Ridder) that can bring some excitement to this team.
Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Scotty Miller, Cordarrelle Patterson and Robinson are all explosive dudes.
Unfortunately, they may be irrelevant if Ridder isn’t throwing the pigskin consistently and, even if he is - efficiently.
Most importantly, let’s not neglect this atrocious defense. Last season, the Falcons ranked 31st in total defense according to DVOA metrics. I can’t imagine they get worse, but I haven’t seen massive strides that would indicate that side of the ball is going to be a strength going forward.
So you can chalk that up as another liability for this team and another reason why I’m betting them to stay Under 8.5 wins.
Commanders Under 6.5 Wins (-118)
(Currently, the best number offered on the Under is -110 at PointsBet in IL)
Ahhh the Sam Howell era begins. And I could not be more content about it.
When I was asked whether I would prefer Howell or Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB for the Commanders, I said Howell.
I said that because Howell is unproven and could end up disastrous.
On the other side, with Brissett, you know what you’re going to get. And that is a completely fine quarterback that can get the job done, but won’t be the main reason you win or lose a game.
So that’s why regardless of who was chosen to start, I still felt confident in the under, but with a slight preference to it being Howell.
The former UNC Quarterback has played in just one regular season game in his short NFL career.
Against the Cowboys, Howell went 11-19, threw for 169 passing yards, with 1 TD and 1 interception. In that game he was fairly elusive on his feet as he ran the ball five times, racked up 35 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.
And in two preseason games this year, Howell totaled 28 completions on 37 pass attempts, threw for 265 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Commanders, seemingly, are high on Howell, and apparently so are a lot of other people.
I, however, am not. Not yet, anyway.
I think Howell has the potential to be a solid QB, but I've seen nothing from him thus far that would indicate that to be the case heading into this season. He is going to be a work in progress.
I will say, though, there are some weapons on this offense. The skill position players will feature wide receivers Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel. And, the tailback position is solidified with both Brian Robsinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson.
But, I do believe the tight end position to be weak with just Logan Thomas to mainly rely on.
And the offensive line, that PFF ranked 20th to end this past year, will be a big question mark as well.
Defensively speaking, this unit allowed the third-fewest yards per game (304.6) and the 7th-fewest points per game (20.2) last year.
On that side of the ball, where they desperately need to improve is the turnover battle.
Last season Washington ranked 28th in turnover differential (-5).
Ultimately, I don’t believe their defense will be an issue.
However, my qualms reside not only with the offense and their unproven quarterback, but also their volatile Head Coach Ron Rivera.
Riverboat Ron’s seat appears to be getting warmer and this may turn out to be a make or break season for the veteran coach.
I am not the biggest fan of his tactics and, in particular, his decision making toward the end of games.
We’ll see how he can navigate around this schedule, which is probably the biggest reason I'm looking to fade this organization:
My Prediction on the Commanders 2023-2024 Schedule:
Week 1 vs Arizona (Win)
Week 2 @ Denver (Loss)
Week 3 vs Buffalo (Loss)
Week 4 @ Philadelphia (Loss)
Week 5 vs Chicago (Toss-Up)
Week 6 @ Atlanta (Toss-Up)
Week 7 @ NYG (Loss)
Week 8 vs Philadelphia (Loss)
Week 9 @ New England (Toss-Up)
Week 10 @ Seattle (Loss)
Week 11 vs NYG (Win)
Week 12 @ Dallas (Loss)
Week 13 vs Miami (Toss-Up)
Week 14 - Bye Week
Week 15 - @ Los Angeles Rams (Win)
Week 16 @ New York Jets (Loss)
Week 17 vs San Francisco (Loss)
Week 18 vs Dallas (Toss-Up)
Winnable Games: 3
Losable Games: 9
Toss-Up Games: 5
Final Prediction: 5-12
*Winnable Games: Spots I believe to be the biggest advantage and will more than likely win*
*Losable Games: Spots I believe to be the most disadvantageous and will more than likely lose*
*Toss-Up Games: The 50/50 spots. Could go either way depending on numerous factors*
In my estimation this is a fairly difficult schedule for the Commanders and their inexperienced quarterback.
Those first four games are rocky as hell.
And then that Week 5 spot is a short week with the Bears coming in for Thursday Night Football, in a rematch of the ugliest game from last season where the two squads looked like they had never practiced a down of football in their lives.
Surprise surprise - but I’ll be giving the slight edge to Chicago in that one.
We know the NFC East is like a car wreck that you can’t take your eyes off of, but, my eyeballs will actually be directed toward the out-of-division games.
These will be crucial for Washington.
The issue with those spots is that even against weaker teams where you think the Commanders may have a more favorable chance - those games are being played away from home:
Week 6 @ ATL
Week 9 @ NE
Week 10 @ SEA
Week 16 @ NYJ
And then with the tougher opponents, Washington does get to host them - but those enemies will still have the sizable talent advantage:
Week 3 vs BUF
Week 13 vs MIA
Week 17 vs SF
So chalk me up as a non-believer in the Commanders this year. I think they’ll be a tough out in a lot of matchups, and may end up covering their spreads at a high clip, but will ultimately falter in those one-score games.
Trevor Lawrence MVP 17/1
(Best number offered on Trevor Lawrence MVP is 18/1 at Caesars in IL)
Big year coming ahead for T-Law and the Jaguars, baby! I can feel it, and you should too.
Lawrence is coming off a solid 2022-2023 campaign as he passed for 4,113 yards, with a TD to INT ratio of 25-8.
And let’s not forget the man rushed for over 290 yards and five touchdowns.
Not only does Lawrence get to build off the momentum of making it to (and almost winning) the divisional round of the playoffs, but he also gets another year of experience and familiarity under Head Coach, and Offensive Guru, Doug Pederson.
Plus, he is gifted an addition to the receiving corps with Calvin Ridley, along with a wide open division.
Within the AFC South, the Texans and Colts are both in rebuilding phases and have no real shot at contending for the playoffs.
As for the Titans, well, you can only rely on a running back so much in this league, and at some point he is going to slow down. Don’t get me wrong, Derrick Henry is still an exceptional running back - but the decline in numbers and health has been evident the past two seasons.
And if Henry can’t get his old juices flowing - then what is there to rely on?
Ryan Tannehill?
Haha - that cracks me up.
This guy couldn’t be any more of an average QB in my eyes. He can deliver those easier throws to the hitch, slant and screen routes all day, he can hand the ball off to the workhorse, Henry, as much as he wants, but when the pressure increases and those big throws are needed - he will fail to execute and crumble.
Plus, Tannehill is going to have the thought of being replaced in the back of his mind constantly, considering his organization has selected two quarterbacks in the past two drafts with Malik Willis and Will Levis.
I get that acquiring DeAndre Hopkins is exciting and sparks the conversation of moving the needle on their win total, but ultimately it doesn’t. Not when you have a mediocre QB and a below average defense.
Suffice to say I’m not concerned over Tennessee.
Jacksonville will take control of this division, Lawrence will pad his stats against the inferior opponents within it and outside of it and in turn solidify himself as at least a top three MVP candidate toward the end of the season.
And, assuming that will be the case, the fact that we will be sitting on a 17/1 ticket will be tremendous.
Because at that point we will have several ways to potentially profit off of this wager:
To hold on, to cash out / sell, or to hedge.
I’m not guaranteeing that Lawrence will be the most valuable player at the end of this season, but what I am saying is that he will be in the conversation and at the top of the ranks, which in turn will help us profit off of this juicy price of 17/1, which will continue to decrease the longer the season progresses.
So hop on board while you still can, folks.
Bears to be Most Improved Team (+210)
Save me the “you’re a fan” criticism and hear me out on this one.
DraftKings is the only book to offer this market, and Chicago is the short shot at that +210 price, with Denver coming next (+425), then Houston (+700), Indianapolis (+800), New Orleans (+850) and so on…
When I was first made aware of this market, my eyeballs lit up. Not only is it a fascinating conversation, but there is a great price or two offered on this menu.
The first being the Chicago Bears at +210.
I thought their number would be around +170 or so. I’m appalled that it's over +200.
When you handicap this award, obviously, you have to be cognizant of these teams’ number of wins from last season.
Let’s look at the squads we mentioned:
Bears: 3-14
Broncos: 5-12
Texans: 3-13-1
Colts: 4-12-1
Saints: 7-10
Now let’s consider the win totals that DraftKings has set for those teams:
Bears - 7.5 Ov (-130)
Broncos - 8.5 Ov (-110)
Texans - 6.5 Un (-135)
Colts - 6.5 Ov (-120)
Saints - 9.5 Un (-125)
Even if Chicago doesn’t eclipse their win total, I envision them with 7 wins at worst.
So that puts the Bears at a minimum four-win improvement from last season.
Do we think the Colts can get to 8 wins? No shot. Do we think the Texans can get to 7 wins? I gravitate toward the no.
How about the Broncos getting 9 wins?
Actually, I could see that.
The issue is, you’d still be pushing with Chicago at a four-win improvement - and that’s with the assumption the Bears have a poor year and stay under their win total.
I believe it’s more plausible for the Bears to get to 8 wins than it is for Denver, in the AFC West, to get to double-digit victories.
So while the Broncos could make it interesting - I don’t see it being worth the admission price of +425.
However, if there were a team I’d wager on to hedge my Bears pick, it would be the Saints (+850).
I don’t think the NFC South will be all too difficult. New Orleans has a plethora of offense weapons and the defense should continue to be solid.
The issues revolve around the untrustworthy Head Coach Dennis Allen, and the unknown commodity in Derek Carr.
Which version of Carr will we see? Will New Orleans be a beneficial change of scenery for the veteran QB? Will having a legit defense to back up Carr work wonders?
I do believe so. But is it enough belief to bank on this team getting at least 11 wins to push with the Bears on a four-win improvement?
Probably not.
I may flirt with the idea of throwing a little coin on them as a backup option to the Bears, but in the end I will not consider the Saints as an official play for this award.
The Bears are set up perfectly to win this wager. There will be improvements offensively and Chicago will win those one-score games that they fell victim to so often last season.
Their schedule ranks as one of the easiest and the minimum expectation should be at least 7 wins, with a realistic goal set at 8 or above.
That makes it tricky to wager on their win total, but appetizing as all hell to bet them for the most improved team.
Sign me up and go Bears!
NFL Futures Bets:
Jets Under 9.5 Wins (+125)
Falcons Under 8.5 Wins (+110)
Commanders Under 6.5 Wins (-118)
Trevor Lawrence MVP (17/1)
Bears Most Improved Team (+210)
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