The most anticipated game of the year is almost here…at least for some of us.
Why am I, along with others, very much looking forward to this game? Is it because it means the end is near and no longer do us Husker fans have to suffer and question why we watch this sport for the foreseeable future? Or is it because this matchup usually tends to be exciting and offer some valuable betting opportunities?
The answer to that is yes.
Nevertheless, things are a tad bit different this time around. Heck, even last season things were different. Nebraska, at the time, was led by Interim Coach Mickey Joseph, and the Huskers defeated the Hawkeyes, in Iowa, 24-17.
Can the Big Red replicate last year’s success?
Apparently the betting market believes so. Iowa opened as a two-point favorite, yet, we have now seen it do a complete 180 and shift to Nebraska laying two.
Why is this? Well, there’s multiple reasons why. First and foremost, Iowa stinks…offensively. They ranks dead last in total offense. The Huskers ain’t much better, though, coming in at 113th.
However, Nebraska has at least found success this season in the ground game; they rank 26th in rushing offense and average 4.6 yards per carry. The Hawkeyes rank 105th in that regard.
So what does Kirk Ferentz’s crew do well?
Defense defense defense.
Iowa comes into this spot as the 7th best defense in the country, allowing just 4.0 yards per play, 281.4 total yards per game and 12.4 points per contest.
Here’s the thing though, Matt Rhule’s crew is not too far behind. The Huskers rank 15th in total defense, allow 18.7 ppg, 4.7 yards per play and 307.7 total yards per game.
So if both defenses are fairly similar, then Nebraska should have the slight advantage because they can at least create SOME offense, unlike Iowa.
Also, the other big reason as to why the market is favoring the home team is incentive.
The Huskers need to win this game to become bowl eligible. And despite this wonky, frustrating and crazy season, it would be a fantastic ending to Rhule’s first year. His boys are fighting and they’ll do whatever it takes to accomplish that sixth win.
On the other side, the Hawkeyes already have their fate sealed. They claimed the Big Ten West and will be playing the winner of the Michigan / Ohio State showdown in the conference championship game.
Of course that doesn’t mean Iowa will just bend the knee and surrender, but there is not as much motivation throughout their roster as there will be on the Cornhuskers sideline.
I took a moneyline price on Nebraska at -124 on Tuesday afternoon. I’d recommend doing ML for the security of just needing an outright win and would play it up to -130. As we all very well know, in this matchup, points will come at a premium; the consensus total is 26.5 for goodness sake. So spare yourself the unnecessary sweat and potential bad beat with laying points and just ride the moneyline.
Play: Huskers ML (-124); risk 1.24 units to win 1.00
College Football Record: 7-3 (+3.65)
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