Isaac Okoro Prop
Lately, Okoro has been making quite the impact on the offensive side of the ball for the Cavaliers.
Over the past five games he’s averaged 13.4 points on 53% shooting. Donovan Mitchell not playing has certainly boosted his opportunities for scoring. Over the past three games, when Mitchell has been absent, Okoro has taken 11 shots and averaged 15 points per game. That is very much above his usual numbers.
In particular, he has excelled from beyond the perimeter within this time frame. If we look at his past five games, he’s averaged 2.8 threes made on 6.0 attempts (47%). And if we narrow it down even more - to the last three spots in which Mitchell has been out - then his average is 3.0-7.0 3pt.
When scouting this game I had picked out Okoro as the man I wanted to back for his props. I was hoping that his points would be listed anywhere from 10.5 to 11.5, however, the books set it at 12.5. I do think that’s the correct line; I was hoping for something under that, but unfortunately we did not get it.
Fortunately, though, where we can still capitalize on Okoro is with his three-point field goals prop. 1.5 is an acceptable number for Okoro, but where the value seeps in is with the odds. I figured the price on the over would be around -120 or so, but the books are dealing even money.
The defense he will be facing tonight is the Hawks. Atlanta very much struggles at defending from deep. They are allowing their opponents to take over 37% of their looks from there (21st) and connect on 39% (28th).
Okoro is taking 39% of his attempts from three-point land and making 41%. With the need for scoring and the opponent being weak on the defensive side of the ball, this should equate to a respectable night from Okoro. Not often is he going to have the green light as bright as he will now - go take advantage of it, kid.
Play - Isaac Okoro Over 1.5 3pt FGM (EV); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.00
Clippers @ Rockets
Houston has had quite the home and road differential this season. The Rockets are 21-10 on their home floor, yet 6-24 when they play in all other arenas.
The area of their game that very much benefits from playing in front of their home crowd is the defense. On the road, Houston is allowing about 117 points per game, however, at home the average dips to 109.
The Clippers don’t have a ton of discrepancies whether they are playing home or away, so we can pretty much take them at face value in this position.
The market opened the total as high as 224.5, and we now see it as low as 223. Why could that be?
Well, for starters - I just mentioned the difference in the Rockets’ performance when they are playing at home versus the road. Also, how about the pace of play for both of these teams? Houston ranks 13th in that regard and Los Angeles is 16th. Not the most urgent offenses in the league.
Plus, in general - both defenses are very strong. The Rockets rank 5th in points per 100 possessions allowed (112.5) and 5th in effective field goal percentage (53.1%). The Clippers come in at 11th in Pts/Poss (114.4) and 7th in eFG% (53.7%).
Now, we recognize how dominant Kawhi Leonard and company can be on the offensive side, but we don’t really view their opponent in the same light. Nor should we, because Houston comes in at 24th in offensive Pts/Poss (113.2) and 29th in offensive eFG% (52.6%).
And, finally, it’s important to note that both of these squads do a very solid job at defending shots from deep. The Rockets rank 1st in 3pt defense (35%) and the Clippers are 5th (35.8%). Obviously, when you’re sweating out unders you would hope there would be a lack of three-point success throughout the game, and I believe we will witness exactly that this evening.
Play: Rockets / Clippers Under 223.5 (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 25-14 (+5.78)
FYI:
I may add a wager on the total revolving Golden State and Milwaukee. It's a tricky spot, though, because we don't know the status of Giannis, and - naturally - he is going to impact a total pretty heavily. So keep your eyes out for that update.
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