Domantas Sabonis Over / Under 20.5 Points Scored
Sabonis and the Kings have a favorable matchup tonight against the lowly Pistons.
Detroit ranks 28th in defensive points per 100 possessions (122.1) and 25th in defensive effective field goal percentage (56.6%). Also, they are dead last in defensive free throw rate (24.1).
When you look into the specifics as to where the Pistons are hurting on the defensive front - it is evident that it comes via the midrange mark. Their opponents are connecting on over 46% of their shot attempts from there, which ranks them 28th worst in the NBA. They also struggle at the rim as they sit 19th in defending from that territory and allow opponents to make 67% of their shots within that range.
When looking at Sacramento’s roster - Sabonis stands out as someone who could thrive in this situation, given the issues of his upcoming opponent.
Sabonis takes a combined 93% of his shot attempts from midrange and at the rim. He is making over 71% of his looks at the rim and over 50% from midrange. Among his teammates, he is the leader in terms of eFG% for guys who consistently log double-digit minutes.
Now, Sabonis’ points prop is listed at 20.5 for this matchup, and he’s only gone over that in 22/49 games. However, when he faced Detroit earlier this season he had a stellar performance: 16-21 FG (76.2%), 37 points, 10 rebounds, 13 assists.
In all fairness, it is just a one-game sample size, but - still - it’s important to recognize just how severely he dominated in that specific matchup.
To go off of a deeper pool of references, I took a look at how Sabonis performed versus teams that currently allow their opponents to shoot 45% or better from midrange - such as the Pistons do. And along those parameters, there were seven teams that fit the bill and a total of 13 games played against them. Sabonis went over 20.5 points in 9/13 games and averaged 23 points per contest.
In that sample, he played the Warriors four times, and three of the games that contributed to him staying under the total were against them. So, if you omit Golden State from the equation, he would be over this prop mark in 8/9 spots and average 25.2 ppg.
I’m not saying that guarantees anything - but it’s an interesting measurement to potentially help predict his performance into tonight’s affair.
The part that scares me is if the Kings completely blow them out and they end up sitting their starters. But, because of how brutal this Sacramento defense is, too (26th in eFG% and 19th in Pts/Poss), perhaps the underdog can do enough to stay within striking distance.
Either way, Sabonis should get plenty of opportunities to have himself another strong night against Detroit.
Play: Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 Points (-106); Risk 1.06 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 7-2 (+4.13)
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