Kyrie Irving Prop
In nine games this postseason, the veteran guard has averaged 5.4 assists per game. In the three contests he’s faced the Thunder, he’s put up 7 apg.
In Game 1 he finished with 3 dimes, then 11 in Game 2 and 7 in Game 3.
The emergence of roles players P.J Washington (averaging 28 points in the last two games) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (averaging 12.5 points in the last two games) has benefited Irving’s facilitation of the rock, thus boosting his assist opportunities.
According to nba.com, in this series alone Irving is measuring 14.3 potential assists per game. During the regular season that number was listed at 9.6.
Sure, the option of Luka Doncic is always appreciated, but the accessibility of having other players that can consistently score is only going to aid Irving’s assists average.
And that’s why I’m going to take advantage of his assists prop tonight (5.5), which I view as a relatively lower number in comparison for what it truly should be.
The best price I’ve seen available to the over is -113, and that was listed at FanDuel and BetRivers.
Initially I was more inclined to seek a wager on his over for points (22.5), but he’s been fairly restricted by this Thunder defense.
Jalen Williams has been matched up against Irving for a majority of this series, and throughout the postseason he’s allowed -5.6 points per 100 possessions and a -2.2% effective field goal percentage according to cleaningtheglass.com.
Due to the formidable defense of OKC, this prevents the amount of quality looks for Irving and sets up the possibility for more dimes.
Play: Kyrie Irving Over 5.5 Assists (-113); Risk 1.13 units to win 1.00
Major League Baseball
Athletics @ Astros
Since April 29th the Oakland A’s have had the hottest bats in all of Major League Baseball against right-handed pitching. They have a weighted runs created plus of 136.
Tonight they face the struggling righty Spencer Arrighetti.
Arrighetti posts an ERA of 8.44 and a FIP of 5.20.
Furthermore, he’s walking 5.5 batters per nine innings, has a .413 batting average of balls in play and a limited ground ball rate of just 34%.
I’d be shocked if the Athletics didn't inflict more damage to his stat line.
On the other side, Houston’s lineup gets to face righty Ross Stripling.
Stripling is 1-6 on the year, has a 5.14 ERA, but an inspiring FIP of 3.71.
Despite his FIP giving hope, other numbers indicate the issues may persist. His BABIP is .356, his skill interactive ERA (SIERA) is 4.50 and 27% of his balls batted in play are classified as line drives.
The Astros are 7th in wRC+ vs RHP this season (108).
I believe both starters could be in for a rough night.
Ideally Houston produces runs early, though, considering the A’s feature a strong bullpen who’s collective ERA is 3.40.
Conversely, Oakland may rake from the batter’s box all night due to the potential struggles of not only Arrighetti, but the home team’s bullpen who’s ERA is 4.57.
Let’s bank on a heavy dose of offense from both ball clubs this evening.
Play: HOU/OAK Over 8.5 (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
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