Hawks @ Knicks
Well, this Knicks team burned us on Sunday, despite losing Jalen Brunson in the first minute and having already been without OG Anunoby, Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle. They overcame all of that and defeated the Cavs on their home floor and effectively ruined our two-team parlay.
Granted, Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert being late scratches didn’t help, but, still - there is no excuse for Cleveland.
Nevertheless, the takeaway from that game should be just how feisty and gritty this New York squad can be. Now, Brunson is questionable for this game and, obviously, whether or not he plays will affect this line fairly drastically.
I’m going to buy-in now with the assumption he plays. I want to get an affordable price while his status is still up in the air. And even if he doesn’t partake, I feel comfortable enough with the amount I’m laying on the Knicks. The price I snagged was -139 on the moneyline; I would play it up to -145 before the news is announced.
Even with the potential of no Brunson, New York should still be set up well. The Hawks have had an atrocious defense all season (30th in eFG% / 26th in Pts/Poss) and now the other side of the ball will presumably get worse, too.
Atlanta is without their top player Trae Young. Young last played on February 23rd. Since then, the Hawks have played four games:
Sun, Feb 25 - Won vs ORL (109-92)
Tue, Feb 27 - Won vs Utah (124-97)
Thu, Feb 29 - Lost @ BRK (124-97)
Sat, Mar 2 - Lost @ BRK (114-102)
See the first game post-Trae Young, the team had a spark and a little extra motivation to go out there and prove they could win without him. That’s natural and happens often in sports. Then they get a crummy Jazz team at home…okay, that’s not surprising to see them handle business. But, they then fall victim twice to the lowly Nets. Atlanta is now 11-18 on the road.
I believe a trend of lesser scoring will appear throughout this Hawk’s team now that their leading scorer is gone. It took a couple of games to settle in, but now it’s coming to fruition.
Plus, talk about playing inspired - the Knicks should be doing just that considering they are back in front of their home crowd after a massive win, fighting for playoff seeding and rallying around Brunson whether he's playing or not.
New York’s offense will be fine without him if that’s the case. As a team, the Knicks are taking 37% of their shots from three-point land. Atlanta ranks 28th at defending the three ball and is allowing opponents to make over 39% from that range.
Tom Thibodeau’s crew will be ready for this one and end up adding another win to their record.
Play: Knicks ML (-139); Risk 1.39 units to win 1.00
Brandon Miller
So, no, I’m not exactly betting on the Hornets, per se…albeit tempting. However, I am banking on one of their top performers to go off this evening.
The rookie, Miller, has been a very solid contributor to their offense this year. He’s averaging just under 17 points on 44% shooting from the floor. The month of February featured his highest scoring stretch as he averaged 20.5 points per contest in that span. And, in the lone game that he’s played in the month of March - he dropped 26 at Toronto.
Miller should be primed for another big outing tonight as his crews hosts the Orlando Magic.
Orlando has an above-average defense for the most part, but where they do falter is from mid-range. The Magic are allowing the opposition to connect on about 45% of their attempts from there, which ranks them 25th in the NBA.
Miller is taking 40% of his shot attempts from all mid-range and knocking down 43% of those looks.
Furthermore, to get even more specific, Orlando ranks 26th at defending short mid-range shots (46%). Out of Miller’s 40% of takes from mid-range, 27% of them are classified as being short mid-range.
Miller should have plenty of opportunities to capitalize against his opponent’s defensive flaws tonight. He already did once this season. Back in November he managed to drop 20 on these guys; and he’s only improved since then.
Plus, with all of the injuries on Charlotte (Seth Curry, Cody Martin, LaMelo Ball and possibly Nick Richards), he has to step up and take more shots than usual.
And over the last two games he’s done just that by taking 21 attempts in both spots and scoring 26 and 21 points, respectively.
Let’s hope he continues to stay hot and get over his points prop of 18.5.
Play: Brandon Miller Over 18.5 Points (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 25-12 (+8.32)
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