Wizards @ Grizzlies
In what’s probably the least enthusiastic game of the evening, I have found a bet that I like.
And that wager would involve backing the road team in this spot. Washington has, miraculously, found themselves on a two-game win streak. I’m not sure if you can call winning twice in a row a streak, but, it’s the Wizards, we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. They have defeated the Hornets and then, subsequently, the Heat in their last two efforts.
I believe another opportunity to wind up in the win column is present for their group this evening. This Memphis roster has been beyond depleted all season. They have been missing Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Derrick Rose, Zaire Williams, Desmond Bane and Yuta Watanabe. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been hit or miss, however he is out for tonight’s game, along with Vince Williams Jr.
The Grizzlies’ offense already ranks dead last in points per 100 possessions and 29th in effective field goal percentage - so how much worse can it actually get? Maybe not too much tonight, considering the Wizards rank just about as bad in those categories on the defensive side. But, Washington has the capability to score, and the lack of defense can more often than not be attributed to effort. I believe the Wizards will put forth more of it on the defensive side because they recognize that they have a winnable game ahead of them and will want to carry their winning momentum into a third consecutive spot. Seldom have they had this opportunity this season.
The market is displaying admiration for them as well; we saw Washington open as low as -1.5, but are now listed as high as -3. There are still plenty of -2.5’s out there, though. And that is what I will be laying tonight with Kyle Kuzma and company.
Play: Wizards -2.5 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Rockets @ Spurs
Speaking of depleted rosters, Houston can raise their hands in being a team that fits under that label. They were already missing Steven Adams and Tari Eason for the season, but recently they suffered their biggest loss yet - Alperen Sengun. Sengun exited Sunday’s contest, at Sacramento, after injuring his ankle. He may be out for the remainder of the year.
That is a huge absence for this Rockets team. Sengun was their leading offensive contributor in points per game (21.1), eFG% (+3.4%) and Pts/Poss (+4.8).
And, he had been torching San Antonio this season. In their last meeting, Sengun dropped 45 points against the Spurs. He’s averaging 28.3 ppg against them, so - it goes without being said that he will be severely missed in tonight's matchup.
What also puts this Houston team at a disadvantage is the fact that they will be playing on the road. Granted, they are in the same state, but - still, this team has struggled immensely away from home.
The Rockets are 21-11 at home and 8-24 on the road. They average four points less, and allow 6.5 points more on the road. They fell short in the lone road spot they have played in San Antonio this season, way back in October, 126-122.
I realize the Spurs are on the second-leg of a back-to-back, but I don’t think we should worry about that quite as deeply as we normally would. This team is a very youthful roster, they can handle a spot like this. Plus, it appears that Victor Wembanyama is going to play.
Houston opened as a four-point road favorite, but we’ve quickly seen that drop to as low as three. There are still some shops that are dishing out 3.5, though.
Play: Spurs +3.5 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
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