Hornets @ Raptors
I tweeted out my play for this game last night:
I expected the number to move, as it already was, and pulled the trigger as quickly as I could. If you can find an 8 out there I would still recommend playing; but, anything below that I would wait until you get a better number in-game.
The reason I am fond of this spot is because that market is yet again disrespecting this Charlotte team. They covered for us on Friday, as they found themselves in a role of a large underdog against a team that isn’t all too separated from them in terms of talent. And that’s exactly what they have presented in their matchup today.
Toronto is having a poor season. And to make matters worse, they just lost their best player, Scottie Barnes, on Friday, when he hit his hand on the rim. He is now out indefinitely.
Factor that in along with seeing how weak their defense is - 22nd in both points per 100 possessions allowed (118.3) and effective field goal percentage (56.2%), then it’s clear to see why they shouldn’t be laying this many points.
As I’ve stated numerous times in recent articles, this new-look Hornets team is playing inspired. And they are playing a lot better defensively after the acquisitions of Grant Williams, Seth Curry and Tre Mann.
Now, Curry will be out for this game, along with Cody Martin. That is certainly not ideal, however, that did not alter the market too much as we now see this spread at seven in favor of the home team. The real guy I’m concerned about is the big man Nick Richards, who is listed as questionable. If he is out, then we may have some issues. But, if he’s in - then I’m feeling very confident in Charlotte.
Play: Hornets +8.5 (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
Parlay - Celtics / Cavaliers (-147)
Ah the dreaded two-team parlay. I say dreaded because I believe we are 0-2 in betting these types of wagers in the NBA this season. But I’m going to give it another go throughout today’s slate.
Let’s start on the East Coast in Boston. I’m looking to fade the Warriors. Yes, we just backed them the other night against Toronto, and backed Curry the night prior against New York, but this is the spot to turn against them.
Today’s matchup will be their fourth on this current road trip within a span of just six days.
Despite the box score showing they comfortably defeated the Raptors by 15, that’s not truly how the game went down. Golden State was scratching and clawing the whole 48 minutes. They were clearly very weary in the first quarter, and you couldn’t blame them considering they had flight problems that didn’t allow them to land in Toronto until 8:00 that morning.
My point is that they are enduring a daunting stretch, and this will be their toughest test on the road, against arguably the best team in the league, who still has a bad taste in their mouth from when the Warriors beat them in the championship a couple years back.
Boston is laying double-digits on the spread. To that I say no thank you and, instead, will utilize them and their moneyline in the two-team parlay with our next selection, which will be the Cavaliers.
This pick may surprise you, because I have been somewhat vocal about how I believe this team to be fraudulent. Not as much as the Sacramento Kings, but perhaps right below them. Yes, it’s because I’m bitter about how they’ve played when I’ve live-bet them in a couple spots, but - still - this team tends to play down to their competition and struggles to close out games.
Let’s hope that won’t be the case tonight.
What originally inspired my conviction in this parlay was my appeal toward betting the Cavs. Last night, when I placed my wager on the Hornets, I also noticed that Cleveland was only laying -4.5 at home against the banged up, struggling Knicks. Well, that line is now at -6.5 and I’m a bit ashamed I didn’t pull the trigger.
Nevertheless, I still see this as a viable approach.
These two teams have seen each other twice this year, both having won on the other’s home floor. Those matchups took place before Thanksgiving, so there’s not entirely too much to take away from it.
What we can recognize, though, is that this New York squad is still incredibly depleted. In the month of February, the Knicks went 3-8 straight up, with their only wins coming against Memphis (20-41), Philadelphia (34-25, but no Embiid) and Detroit (9-50).
During this span of dealing with injuries, the Knicks have clearly felt a lot more comfortable at home and a lot more comfortable against inferior opponents. Well, unfortunately for them, Cleveland is not a lesser opponent. And New York will not have the depth to compete with them.
The Cavs still have one of the better defenses in the Association - 2nd in Pts/Poss allowed (111.3), 3rd in eFG% (52.7%), 3rd in half court Pts/Play allowed (94.7) and 3th in transition Pts/Play (121.3).
And considering the Knicks are limited offensively outside of Brunson, this should end up being a long and aggravating matchup for them.
Look for Cleveland to get the outright dub on their home floor against a bruised and battered New York roster.
Play - Parlay: Celtics ML / Cavs ML (-147); Risk 2.00 units to win 1.4
NBA record: 24-9 (+11.46)
Comments