Jimmy Butler Prop
The Heat have been on the struggle bus for a majority of this season with little to look forward to. However, amidst the disappointments of the overall team, there have been instances where individual players have shined.
And for Jimmy Butler, that has been the case over the last five games. In that span, the veteran forward has averaged 26 points per contest and has eclipsed his prop mark that is listed for tonight’s game (18.5), in each spot. In total, he’s gone over 18.5 points in 21/35 games this year.
I believe he has another favorable matchup this evening against the Magic.
Defensively, Orlando’s biggest liability is defending from midrange. They allow opponents to make 44.6% of their attempts from midrange (23rd), and that just so happens to be where Butler is taking a majority of his shots (47%).
Now, Butler did face the Magic once this season. In that game he only scored 15 points, went 5-10 from the floor and attempted just two free throws. It’s important to note a couple things from that contest. First, he only logged 29 minutes because the Heat were getting blown out. And, secondly, as I mentioned - he attempted just two free throws. On average, Butler is making seven free throws on eight attempts per game and Orlando ranks 24th in defensive free throw rate; so you would expect those chances at the charity stripe to increase.
Furthermore, in that game, when Butler had the ball he was matched up against Paolo Banchero quite frequently. Banchero, on the defensive side, is +4.9 in points per possession allowed and +3.2% in terms of effective field goal percentage. Those are very poor numbers and should also indicate that Butler can attack at will this evening and keep his scoring dominance going.
Play: Jimmy Butler Over 18.5 Points (-118); Risk 1.18 units to win 1.00
Parlay - Pacers Moneyline & Timberwolves Moneyline (-110)
Indiana opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but has since moved to laying 8.5 tonight, at home, against the Rockets.
There are several reasons as to why the market is favoring the Pacers, but the biggest would seem to be that their opponent will still be missing one of their top players in Fred VanVleet, along with the fact that Houston very much struggles away from home.
Overall this season, the Rockets have been really strong on the defensive side of the court as they rank fifth in both points per possession allowed and effective field goal percentage. However, when they are playing on the road - they are allowing opponents to average seven more points per game and have a record of 5-17.
And considering they are facing an Indiana offense that comes in at 1st in offensive eFG% and 2nd in Pts/Poss, one can assume they may falter.
Conversely, the Pacers are really poor defensively in pretty much all facets. But the good news is that Houston does not feature a formidable offense. While Indiana ranks 26th in defensive Pts/Poss and 23rd in defensive eFG%, the Rockets are 21st and 26th in those respective categories offensively.
Laying 8.5 is a tall order and I personally stray away from doing so in a sport like basketball where the variance can be all over the place and garbage time buckets can impact point spreads. So rather than laying a steep spread, I will just bank on the home team winning outright.
Let’s get to their dancing partner for this parlay…
Ahh yes, we move to my neck of the woods in the Windy City, where the Bulls are hosting the T’Wolves.
For those not aware, Chicago is missing Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams for the foreseeable future. Plus, Alex Caruso is listed as “questionable” for tonight’s contest.
Regardless, even if this team was fully healthy they’d still have their backs against the wall.
Minnesota’s defense has been stout enough to put them first in both Pts/Poss allowed and eFG%. This will not bode well for a Bulls squad that is 22nd and 26th, offensively, in those categories, respectively.
If we flip it, we can see that the T’Wolves are an offense that sits 7th in eFG% and will be going up against a defense that is 18th in eFG%.
Chicago always has issues against dominant big men, and, unfortunately for them, it will be two of them that they see tonight in Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. Nikola Vucevic struggles enough defensively as a pseudo-center, and will presumably continue to do so this evening. And even if the Bulls give more minutes to their backup big man Andre Drummond, doing so will limit their potential offensive success and chances of keeping up with Minnesota.
The T’Wolves opened as about a five-point favorite and have since ticked up to -5.5. While I wouldn’t mind laying the points in this spot, per se, I certainly feel more comfortable in just needing them to win outright and believe they will fit accordingly in the parlay alongside the Pacers.
Play: Parlay - Pacers ML / T’Wolves ML (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 6-1 (+4.23)
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