We're coming off a 2-1 performance last evening and looking to keep the momentum in the positive column tonight. As of this moment, I have just the one player prop. There are several spots in which I have strong leans, or am waiting for the finalized injury report, line moves, etc, so there is a strong chance I make additional plays later in the day.
Here's what I'm rolling with so far:
Isaac Okoro
This will be the fourth time that Okoro and the Cavs face the Bulls this season. Throughout the three games that they have matched up against one another, Okoro has had some success:
2/14 vs CHI: 6-11 FG, 4-8 3pt, 16 pts
1/15 vs CHI: 3-12 FG, 1-6 3pt, 7 pts
12/23 @ CHI: 3-9 FG, 0-5 3pt, 6-7 FT, 12 pts
The 23-year-old forward has averaged 11.7 points per game against Chicago. And this evening, his points prop is listed at 6.5, with juice on the over anywhere from -125 to -130.
The reason Okoro is in a beneficial setting against his division rival is because Chicago is allowing opponents to attempt 42% of their shots from three-point land, which is the highest rate in the league.. The Bulls’ opponents are knocking down 37.5% of those looks from deep (18th) and - even more specifically - 43.5% from the corner mark beyond the arc (29th).
So, with that being said, I glanced at Cleveland’s personnel and saw that Okoro was taking the second most attempts from the corner three range (24%) and knocking down 42% of them.
Overall, he is taking 37% of his shots from beyond the perimeter and making 40% of them. However, a majority of his looks do come near the bucket (52%) and from there he is connecting on 61%.
The Bulls are mediocre at the rim. They allow 34.5% of their opponent's attempts to come from that range, which is contributing to a 65% hit rate.
It’s clear that Okoro prefers to play this Chicago squad, considering he’s averaging double-digit points, but, more importantly - he’s taking the most shot attempts (10.7) against them compared to any other team in the NBA.
And, finally - just to point it out…Okoro has eclipsed this prop mark of 6.5 in 34/48 games (71%) this season. So getting over this spot is not unfamiliar territory for this man. Let’s hope the scoring persists.
Play: Isaac Okoro Over 6.5 Points (-125); Risk 1.00 unit to win 0.80
NBA Record: 19-8 (+8.02)
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