Suns @ Warriors
This will be the fourth and final meeting of the regular season between these two teams. Phoenix has dominated the series thus far, winning all three matchups.
10/24: PHX (108) @ GSW (104)
11/22: PHX (123) vs GSW (115)
12/12: PHX (119) vs GSW (116)
What’s even more impressive about the Suns’ victories against the Warriors is that none of them have come when they’ve had all three of their star players active.
In the first two meetings it was Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, and then in the third it was Booker and Bradley Beal. Whereas Golden State has been pretty much fully healthy in each matchup.
Normally, with two talented teams like this, I would tread lightly on fading the team that’s already lost three times in the season series, however, this Warriors team clearly struggles against their upcoming opponent and it may get even more difficult when they are fully healthy.
So why has Phoenix had such an edge over Steve Kerr’s group this year? Well, let’s dig in.
Offensively, the Suns are 6th in Pts/Poss (120.2) and 5th in eFG% (57.4%). Defensively, the Warriors are 19th (117.5) and 11th (54.5%) in those categories respectively. Phoenix comes in at 8th in offensive half court Pts/Play (102.3) and Golden State ranks 18th defensively (110.1). And then if we look at transition plays - the Suns are 4th in offensive Pts+/Poss and the Warriors are 26th defensively.
Furthermore, when viewing shot selection, it’s evident why Durant, Beal and Booker are thriving against this team’s defense. They all love to shoot from midrange, and Golden State not only allows the most shot attempts from that territory (36.8%), but also allows the highest success rate from there as well (47.6%).
If we flip things around, it’s important to recognize what the strengths and preferences of the Warriors are offensively. And that would be taking and making shots from beyond the arc. Golden State is shooting over 40% of their attempts from deep and making over 38% of them. However, Phoenix does a fairly solid job defending the perimeter as they are limiting the opposition to making under 37% from there (12th).
All in all, I could keep going on and explaining where the road team has edges - but I’m sure you get the point. Like I said, it’s tough to fade a team that’s already lost to their upcoming opponent three times this season, but considering the Suns will have a healthy roster, it makes for a pretty compelling case to back them once again.
Play: Suns ML (-125); Risk 1.25 units to win 1.00
Thunder @ Mavericks
Dallas returns home after winning all three games on their recent road trip. Their opponent tonight - OKC - hasn’t played since Tuesday and should be very rested for this matchup.
These teams met once already this season - back on December 2nd, and the Thunder won on the road 126-120.
I expect another victory for the road team this evening.
The Thunder matchup extremely well against this Mavs squad.
Offensively, OKC is 4th in Pts/Poss (120.9) and 3rd in eFG% (58%). Defensively, Dallas is 21st in Pts/Poss (118.3) and 20th in eFG% (56%). The Thunder are the best half court offense in the association in terms of points per 100 plays, and the Mavericks are 17th defensively in that category. Also, in transition play, OKC is 7th in Pts+/Poss and Dallas is 29th on the defensive side.
And, finally, with shot selections, the Thunder prefer to attempt a majority of their looks from three-point land (34.7%) and at the rim (33.2%). It just so happens to be that those spots are where the Mavs defense is the most liable, considering their opponents are making over 37% of their looks from deep (17th) and over 70% at the rim (28th).
Plain and simple - this Dallas defense is not very good. Oklahoma City’s defense, however, is a different story. Defensively, the Thunder rank 4th in Pts/Poss (112.4), 2nd in eFG% (52.6%), 3rd in half court Pts/Play (94.6) and 3rd in transition Pts+/Poss (0.9).
Even though the home team has had success as of late, it’s important to understand that those wins came against teams that, at the time, were very banged up. Tonight will be a different story, remember, because OKC has had several days of rest and will be ready to roll.
Play: Thunder ML (-125); Risk 1.25 units to win 1.00
Max Strus - Over / Under 1.5 3pt FGM
Strus is facing a Raptors defense that is allowing opponents to take over 36% of their shots from deep (16th), and connect on over 38% of those looks (23rd). Toronto is also on the second-leg of a back-to-back, so their legs may be a bit weary.
Strus is taking 64% of his shot attempts from beyond the arc and making 34% of them. The accuracy isn’t necessarily alluring to bettors, but the frequency certainly is.
Strus has made over 1.5 threes in 34/50 games this season and is averaging 2.4 threes on 7.2 attempts per game.
Plus, he’s seen the Raptors twice this season and has hit multiple shots from deep in both affairs:
11/26 vs TOR: 4-9 3pt
1/1 @ TOR: 2-5 3pt
I’m banking on Strus to keep the triples pouring in the bucket tonight in the Great White North.
Play: Max Strus Over 1.5 3pt FGM (-120); Risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 9-2 (+6.13)
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