The Phillies are 6-0 at home this postseason. Throughout those six home games, Philadelphia has averaged 6.5 runs per game with an average winning margin of 5.2.
Arizona is a nice, fun story. A young, inexperienced core that doesn’t play to what their limitations should actually be. And good for them - they have exceeded expectations that were set heading not only into the season, but the playoffs as well.
However, unfortunately for them - I believe their season concludes this evening. Seemingly every young and inexperienced team that makes a mini-run in the playoffs eventually has their sights cut short prior to the championship round. Adversity hits, their depth isn’t as deep or prepared as the ready-made teams and the opposition’s talent and veteran presence outweighs the exuberance of the underdog.
Tonight, the Phillies will be tossing out Aaron Nola to get the job done.
Nola, throughout this postseason, has pitched in three games; once against each team they’ve faced: Marlins, Braves and D’Backs.
He has totaled 18.2 IP, has allowed 12 hits and only 2 ER. Those two runs came against the Braves in a game that the Phillies won 10-2.
Nola’s full stat line vs Arizona looked like this: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 7 K’s, 0 BB
Not too shabby, my friends.
For more incentive to back this guy, let’s acknowledge some of his other numbers this postseason.
Nola, in the three playoff games, has accumulated a .255 BABIP (Batting Avg of Balls in Play), 86.7% LOB% (Left on Base %), and a FIP (Fielding Independent of Pitching) of 1.70.
On the other side, the right-hander, Merrill Kelly, takes the bump for Arizona.
Kelly has pitched twice this postseason:
@ LAD - 6.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5 K, 2 BB
@ PHI - 5.2 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER, 3 HR, 6 K, 3 BB
The Phillies were victorious in that outing against Kelly, winning 10-0.
Kelly, this postseason, has racked up a FIP of 5.92.
Look, overall, Kelly has been solid. But, in a playoff game such as this, you have to seize any minuscule angle you can, and in this matchup we have one, in terms of the pitching, that favors the home team.
Ultimately, Citizens Bank Park will be the loudest and rowdiest that it’s been, the bats will come through when needed, Nola will do his part and the Philadelphia Phillies will move on to the World Series yet again.
In Illinois, the cheapest moneyline price you can get is -175. However, at BetRivers and DraftKings, they allow you to bet a -1 runline.
BetRivers is offering the Phillies -1 (-129). That’s how I’m going to play this. I save money on the flat one instead of the outright ML, and gain a tad bit of security in case this game somehow falls on one as opposed to laying the standard -1.5.
If you prefer to gather the plus money price on the -1.5 I’d have no qualms in that regard - but, personally, I am fine laying the -129 on the flat one for what could end up being a tight contest.
Play: Phillies -1 (-129)
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