Motivated Mariners

It’s that time again….time to fade Reid Detmers.

It is one of my favorite pastimes (of the last two seasons) in baseball and we’re fortunate enough to have a potentially strong opportunity to do so again this evening.

If you need a refresher, here are Detmers' numbers this season:

4.82 ERA | 4.34 xFIP | .326 BABIP | 4.21 SIERA

What’s even more concerning for Detmers, is his road numbers:

.433 SLG | .341 wOBA | 5.21 FIP | 5.31 xFIP

Furthermore, the southpaw has faced the Mariners twice this season. In his first outing against Seattle - and his first of the year - Detmers went 4.2 IP, allowed 4 hits and just 2 ER.

However, when they squared off again on August 4th, the Mariners enacted their revenge by tacking 7 ER on 9 hits against the lefty in just four innings of work.

My hunch is that Seattle will continue to cause damage against Detmers. And not just because of his shaky numbers, but because of the strength in the home team’s bats as of late.

Since August 1st, the Mariners, against LHP, are 2nd in wRC+ (147) and 3rd in both wOBA (.379) and OPS (.917).

After losing their last three games, Seattle is going to need a big bounce back. And they may have a tad bit of extra motivation as outfielder Jarred Kelenic, who has been out since July 19 with a fractured foot after kicking a water cooler in frustration, could make his return to the lineup.

Moving along, let’s take a look at Logan Gilbert - the pitcher taking the bump for the favorite.

Gilbert has been a steady starter for most of this season. The righty has an ERA of 3.61, an xFIP of 3.64 and a SIERA of 3.67. Plus, Gilbert has a solid K-BB% ratio of 21.0% and a respectable BABIP of .280.

The Angels, since the beginning of August, have been one of the weakest lineups vs RHP. Los Angeles ranks 29th in both wRC+ (78) and wOBA (.286) in that span.

Gilbert did get touched up pretty well the last time he faced this opponent, though, allowing 6 ER in just three innings. That game was back in early June at Angel Stadium of Anaheim.

It’s never ideal to see that, but I’m not too concerned. This is a huge spot for the Mariners. They are teetering with falling out of their wild card spot after having gone 3-7 in their last 10 games.

Seattle has to capitalize tonight. The Angels are hopeless at this point of the season and the Mariners need to keep their foot on the pedal.

The moneyline is very expensive on the side we want to bet, so I’m laying the runline at the price of even money instead.

Play: Mariners -1.5 (+100)