I couldn't quite find enough conviction on either side for this game tonight. As for the total, I'd lean toward the OVER, however, I missed the boat on the best number by a couple points, so I don't care to go chasing that.
Where I will be rooting for points, though, is in the kicking game.
How about Daniel Carlson OVER 5.5 kicking points (-145) tonight?
Carlson is only averaging 4.5 kicking points per game, but I believe he is set up nicely in this spot against Green Bay.
The Packers have one of the stronger red zone defenses in the NFL. They are limiting opponents to scoring a touchdown, upon entering the red zone, just 46.7% of the time, which ranks 8th in the league.
But - for the most part - teams have been able to move the ball fairly well against Green Bay. The Packers rank 25th in DVOA run defense and 18th in DVOA pass defense.
So what this means is that their opponents are getting themselves in scoring position, but aren't fully capitalizing on their drives with touchdowns, which in turn leads to field goal opportunities for the opposition.
And we've seen that scenario play out in pretty much every game against the cheeseheads this season:
Riley Patterson (DET) - 10 kicking points
Cairo Santos (CHI) - 6 kicking points
Younghoe Koo (ATL) - 13 kicking points
Blake Grupe (NO) - 5 kicking points
On average, opposing kickers have totaled 8.5 kicking points per game vs Green Bay.
As you can see, the only opposing kicker to not get over the prop mark over 5.5 was Grupe. In that matchup vs the Packers, Grupe did miss a field goal attempt, which would’ve put him over the mark of 5.5. So the chance was there for him - just like it’s been for every kicker and just like we hope it will be tonight for Carlson.
Carlson has made every field goal attempt thus far (1-1 in each game) and all of his extra points (6-6). We just have to hope the Raiders can consistently move the ball downfield and that Green Bay can hold strong in their own territory.
Lastly, let's acknowledge that this game is being played in a dome, which is a benefit to the kickers since they won’t have to worry about wind playing a factor.
Play: Daniel Carlson Over 5.5 Kicking Points (-145)
Comments