Rough outcome on Wednesday night as we finish 1-3.
Ranger Suarez fell short of his 4.5 strikeouts prop, recording only 4 strikeouts, while Tyler Anderson exceeded his 4.5 strikeouts prop by pitching into the seventh inning and tallying 5 strikeouts. Unfortunately, both bets were lost by just one strikeout each. The fact Anderson lasted that long in the game and has pitched as well as he has this season is a miracle.
Anyways, for today's rundown I've got three plays throughout the Major League Baseball slate - let's dive in...
Keaton Winn Earned Runs Allowed - 2.5
This matchup between San Francisco and St. Louis will be playing at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama.
Major League Baseball focuses this event as tribute to Negro League stars such as the late, Willie Mays, who was a member of the Birmingham Black Barons in 1948 before signing with the Giants.
Winn, the Giants right-hander has not fared well on the road this season.
His last three starts away from Oracle Park have consisted of allowing a total of 19 earned runs.
His ERA is 9.12 and his wOBA is .392 on the road. At home he posts a 4.50 ERA and a .302 wOBA.
Overall, his ERA is 6.66, xERA is 5.30, FIP is 4.68 and his xFIP is 3.89.
He’s got a very low left on-base percentage of 56%, which means he is not stranding many runners once put on base.
Also concerning are his high metrics within his home run to fly ball ratio (18%), hard hit percentage (50%), barrel rate (9%), expected weighted on-base average (.359), and expected isolated power (.216).
The Cardinals are a top-10 offense in wRC+ vs RHP at 105, and that number has increased to 113 over the past month.
Furthermore, their ISO ranks 6th (.175) during the past 30 days against righties.
I don’t quite trust St. Louis' starter, Andre Pallante, to hold up his end of the bargain, so that’s why I’m looking to attack Winn specifically.
Winn is allowing an average of 3.5 earned runs per start. He has given up more than two runs in 7 out of his 11 starts, including the last five consecutive, during which he has averaged 5.4 runs surrendered per game.
Play: Keaton Winn Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+110); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.10
Orioles @ Yankees
The series rubber-match takes place tonight at Yankee Stadium.
New York is a sizable favorite ranging anywhere from -140 to -155.
That’s due to the pitching matchup that appears to favor the home squad.
Luis Gil is set to start with his 2.03 ERA, 2.74 xERA and 3.73 xFIP.
Conversely, the southpaw Cole Irvin will take the mound for the road club.
Irvin’s ERA of 3.03 and FIP of 3.41 appear very trustworthy, however, his underlying metrics indicate potential regression. His xERA displays 4.37 and his xFIP 4.07.
His BABIP resides over .300 and his barrel rate is nearing 10%.
Irvin has not faced the Bronx Bombers this season, though in his career he is 0-2 with a 8.31 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against them.
Both of these offenses are threatening, but the slight pitching advantage toward the Yankees gives them the edge in this contest and that’s the side I’ll be riding with.
Play: Yankees ML (-140); Risk 1.75 units to win 1.25
Chris Flexen Earned Runs Allowed - 2.5
The Flexen fade will be in full effect this evening against the Astros.
Houston's lineup has been very consistent against righties.
All season their wRC+ has been 110 and their ISO has been .158. Over the past month their wRC+ is 105 and their ISO is .168.
Flexen presents an opportunity to increase those numbers.
The 29-year-old features a 5.35 ERA, 4.67 xERA and an xFIP of 4.87.
Furthermore, his xwOBA is .340, his xISO is .195, he’s walking 3.5 batter per nine innings and has a LOB% of just 65%.
The wind is blowing out slightly at Guaranteed Rate Field, plus - it’s another hot day, which should hopefully help carry the ball.
With the series on the line and a beatable pitcher on the bump, I foresee the Astros taking advantage early and putting a handful of runs on the right-hander.
Play: Chris Flexen Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
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