Friday / Saturday / Sunday Recap:
Record: 2-1 (+1.08)
Overall MLB Record: 73-63-1 (+0.51)
Friday: Mariners -1.5 (+118) vs Royals Win
Saturday: Phillies -1.5 (-105) vs Cardinals Win
Sunday: Blue Jays -1.5 (-110) vs Guardians Loss
How about those red-hot Mariners, man? Sheesh. This team has caught fire at the right time. Our bet on them this past Friday threw me into quite the swing of emotions as it went from them being down, then being up, then blowing the runline lead and then the good guys eventually tacking on that insurance run to keep us satisfied. A sweat if there ever was one, but a solid win nonetheless.
I dished out the Phillies runline bet on VSiN's website and our show on Saturday night and, well, if we could have our teams win 12-1 when we bet runlines every time, we'd have a whole lot more hair on our heads. I thought it was a very advantageous spot with Zack Wheeler facing off against Dakota Hudson - and it turned out to be just that and then some.
Then came Sunday, and with it came some annoyance and disappointment. It seemed like a great spot for the Blue Jays bats to turn things around against the struggling Noah Syndergaard, which I suppose they did by tacking on 5 ER against him. Plus, in an attempt to narrow the distance to your AL Wild Card spot and clinch a series win against the middling Guardians, it appeared like the right setup. However, Yusei Kikuchi did not deliver like we had hoped (6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER) and then Toronto's bullpen (5.0 IP, 6 ER) really put a nail in the coffin with any late hopes we may have had. Oh, and this game displayed another example oh how idiotic managers can be. When you are the home team, the game goes to extras, you escape the top half of the inning by preventing your opponent to score any runs and now it's your turn to bat - why in the hell would you not be bunting the runner on second over to third? Unless you have a batter who has no understanding of how to put down a bunt, which is absurd to think considering these guys are professional hitters, then you should ALWAYS be advancing the guy from second to third with a bunt. Why take a risk on a strikeout, fly ball or groundout that doesn't advance the runner? Hitting in baseball is incredibly hard. The chances you are going to successfully move the runner over without surrendering an out is slim. So why not commit to moving the runner and sacrificing the out regardless, but then in turn setting yourself up with a man on third and just one out. At that point if you can't get the runner home by some capacity than you've got bigger problems on your hand. But my oh my is that dumb when managers refuse to do that. And in the end, the Blue Jays got what they deserved because of that idiocy.
*Deep breath*
Ahhh, okay. We still had a solid weekend, let's try to keep it going!
Monday Report:
Honestly I've been picking at this slate and have been struggling to find an angle I feel fully confident in. I'd love to back the Cubbies against the Brewers, but what version of Jameson Taillon are we going to see? I'd reaaaaallly love to fade Lucas Giolito (as I typically do), but I don't love the idea of backing Taijuan Walker. And, despite Giolito's struggles, he can occasionally put together a quality outing and maybe it can happen against a Phillies lineup that isn't all too familiar with a pitcher like him. The market is moving against the favorite, too, so it may just be best to sit back on this one.
As we begin this week I do, however, want to take a look at the futures market. I will update some of my long term wagers that I have pending, and also discuss other spots that could be potential plays.
So let's dive in.
Futures Pending:
Logan Webb NL Cy Young (33/1)
Brewers Under 85.5 Wins (-115)
Blue Jays (20/1) to Win World Series
Marlins to Miss Playoffs (-140)
Spencer Strider 8/1 to Win NL Cy Young
Cy Young Bets:
Logan Webb (33/1)
Webb was my lone Cy Young pick coming into this season. I loved what he did last year for the Giants and figured that would be replicated and improved upon. My only qualm with him was his lack of success on the road last season, but if he was able to correct that, I predicted he would be in contention by the end of the year and we'd be looking at that 33/1 number like it was a gold mine.
Here are Webb's numbers on August 28th via FanGraphs:
9-10 / 3.51 ERA / 3.00 xFIP / 3.6 WAR / 3.22 SIERA / 23.6% K-BB Ratio
His numbers are great, no doubt about it. But in the end, the strikeout rate isn't sexy enough, there haven't been enough wins and, let's face it - he didn't improve on the road as much as I was hoping for (4.63 ERA away from home...although his xFIP on the road is 3.06).
So while he gave us hope from time to time, ultimately he will come up short and we will miss out.
Spencer Strider 8/1
Two weeks ago I pulled the trigger on this number. I discussed it on VSiN and even tweeted about it:
It was absurd to think that Strider should be listed at 8/1. This guy was a favorite coming into the season and still has incredibly attractive numbers (more on that in a moment). BetMGM was offering this price and I couldn't refuse. He had just come off a seven-inning shutout performance agains the Mets and had two favorable scheduled starts coming up against the Giants. Assuming he'd pitch well, I projected his odds would drop back down. Strider ended up tallying 14 IP, 1 ER and 4 total hits throughout those two starts. And now the best number I see on Strider, in the state of Illinois, is +250 at Fanduel.
Getting Strider at 8/1 was a fantastic buy low, sell high opportunity. I still believe he can win this award, but if anyone out there is in a situation like this, the beauty of having that price and seeing what he's done since then is having the option to cash out if the book allows, sell the ticket or hedge out.
If hedging is your action of choice, what direction should you go in?
Well, the obvious answer would be the current favorite at every sportsbook - Zac Gallen. The best price on Gallen is +125 at Caesars.
Let's compare some of the numbers, via FanGraphs, between Gallen and Strider:
ERA: Gallen (3.11) | Strider (3.46)
W/L: Gallen (14-5) | Strider (15-4)
FIP-Based WAR: Gallen (4.6) | Strider (4.7)
RA/9 WAR: Gallen (4.9) | Strider (3.6)
K/9: Gallen (9.59) | Strider (13.85)
Projections: FIP: Gallen (3.04) / Strider (2.79)
xFIP: Gallen (3.43) / Strider (2.88)
So Gallen has Strider beat in ERA and RA/9-based WAR. Aside from that, Strider has the wins, strikeouts, FIP-based WAR and, what's most important with time still left in the season, the projections that show Strider should be performing better.
The next scheduled start for each pitcher is against the Dodgers. Not quite ideal to say the least. Gallen gets them tonight, and the market is moving toward Los Angeles. This is a huge outing for Gallen. If he performs well, he's solidifying himself as the clear frontrunner and there will no longer be a plus price anywhere on him. If his performance ends up in a range of mediocre to poor, then we may get a slight adjustment. And then all eyes will turn toward Strider's upcoming outing vs the Dodgers. Not only will it be the two best teams in baseball squaring off, but it will be a great litmus test for the top pitcher in the National League.
I am going to hold strong for the time being. I am going to hope that Gallen has a rocky enough outing to adjust his odds, and then maybe take a little piece of him at a better plus price to give myself a slight hedge on my Strider wager. So I will be a fan of the blue and white tonight!
Win Totals:
Brewers Under 85.5 Wins (-115)
This wager has been volatile to say the least. And it certainly hasn't been fun watching the Brew Crew get on their hottest streak of the season this past week as both a Cubs fan and as an under bettor on their win total. They now sit at 73 wins and only need 13 more to crush my bet. FanGraphs projects Milwaukee to end with 89.8 wins. In the remaining games they have left, the Brewers have two series against the Cubbies, Marlins and Cardinals and then a meeting with the Phillies, Pirates, Yankees and Nationals. Soooooo, yea, not feeling the best about this one.
Make or Miss Playoffs:
Marlins to Miss Playoffs (-140)
Speaking of the fish, we love to see what's been happening with them lately. They were my top regression candidate heading into the second half of the season, and boy has that now lived up to the hype. The Marlins began the second half of the season on an eight-game losing streak. And, now, Miami is 3-8 in their last 11 games and their odds to miss the playoffs, at DraftKings, is listed at -525. The Marlins sit three games back from a Wild Card spot and, according to FanGraphs, have the toughest strength of schedule among the contending WC teams. I feel tremendous about this bet and am confident we will cash.
World Series:
Toronto Blue Jays 20/1
Well, here's a bet that I'm now not feeling confident in cashing. The Blue Jays have been an utter disappointment as of late, and it definitely doesn't help when the Mariners are playing like the greatest team we've seen this season.
My philosophy with betting futures is looking at teams that have been a tad bit forgotten about, which would give us better value on their price. In my mind, Toronto was one of those teams. I always attempt to seek a squad that has had postseason experience in the past year or more, so that they have familiarity in dealing with the adversity and know what it takes to be in the playoffs and compete. And then, naturally, I pursue a unit that features a contending, talented roster.
I thought Toronto fit the bill with those necessities, but it's sure looking like I am wrong. They sit 2.5 games out of the AL WC spot behind the Astros and Rangers. There is still plenty of time, but they are concerning me. And let me make this clear; placing this bet was not me saying that I believe the Blue Jays were / are the best team in baseball. It was looking at their price, along with their remaining strength of schedule, assuming this price would drop and that they would have a solid path to getting to the ALCS. And, if they were able to do that, then I would have opportunities to cash out, hedge, or sell my ticket on the 20/1 price.
I realize in order to get a really good cash out I'd need them to get to the World Series, but a solid starting point would be making it to the AL Pennant.
I wasn't and, to some degree, am still not sold on the Rays, Twins, Mariners and Rangers. So in my mind that left the Orioles, Astros and Blue Jays. Baltimore's lack of postseason experience and starting pitching depth raised red flags and Houston's short price on the odds didn't attract me. So that led me to Toronto. A team that is now as high as 25/1 to win the whole thing and a group whose chances to make the playoffs have dropped to 49% at FanGraphs. Let's hope the fellas can turn it around ASAP.
So that's an update on the futures I'm currently holding, but what are some ones we should consider going forward?
Astros to Win AL West (+160)
Houston is currently a game back from Seattle in the division, but has a slightly higher chance, according to FanGraphs, to win it. The Astros are at a 40.8% chance and the Mariners are at a 40.6% chance. FanGraphs also has Houston listed with an easier strength of schedule remaining (.497) compared to Seattle (.509).
I'm all for making this wager, but let's slow our roll just a bit. The Astros have a tough three-game set at Boston coming up. The Red Sox are still a WC contending team and will show no mercy if given the chance. Seattle, on the other side, gets to host the lowly Athletics for three games. At worst we should expect the Mariners to capture two games in the series, but it certainly wouldn't shock anyone if they swept. So if that ends up being the case, Seattle will more than likely increase their division lead, and Houston's odds will become juicier. And that is when we should look to capitalize; so let's keep monitoring that heading forward.
Gerrit Cole to Win AL Cy Young (-210)
Now I know what you're thinking, "Danny how can you suggest a futures bet at a price of -210 you maniac?!" And I hear you, I do. But before we pass judgement let's remember that value is relative and we are taking a look at this from a perspective of today and beyond.
Cole has been the favorite for this award for what's seemed like the entire season, and then all of a sudden there's been some momentum for the other candidates in this market. Most notably, Luis Castillo, who you can get as high as 3/1 over at Fanduel. But, despite the alteration in this betting sphere, Cole is still the clear frontrunner in my mind and in several of the key statistics:
ERA: Cole (2.95) | Castillo (3.01)
W/L: Cole (11-4) | Castillo (11-7)
FIP-Based WAR: Cole (3.6) | Castillo (3.2)
RA/9 WAR: Cole (4.8) | Castillo (4.0)
K/9: Cole (9.70) | Castillo (9.91)
Projections:
FIP: Cole (3.40) | Castillo (3.65)
xFIP: Cole (3.66) | Castillo (3.65)
Cole has the advantage in ERA, W/L record, both WARs and in FIP projections. Castillo has the slight nod in K/9 ratio and xFIP - but barely. And if we're being honest, Castillo's dominance is coinciding with the Mariner's recent hot streak, which helps his case - even though it's based on individual merit.
In their upcoming starts it is looking like Cole will get to face the Tigers twice and Castillo will get the Mets and the Rays on the road. You've got to think the advantage lies with the man facing Detroit.
So when I mention that value is relative I mean it in this sense. The best number I see on Cole is -210. I expect him to have solid numbers in his next two starts and, perhaps, even better numbers than Castillo. If that comes to fruition, then Cole will no longer be -210. Instead, Cole could be as high as -350 or -400. And if we end up getting to that point, then when we look back at today and recall Cole being -210, we will realize that despite laying over two dollars on a bet, it was better value than him being listed (potentially) at -350 or -400. Even if the buying low price is not as deep as it once was, as long as it ends up lower than the final offer, we will have achieved value in this bet.
We could play the back and forth game of "Oh he was this price however many months ago so you can't bet it now." But, we are purely looking at it through a lens of this moment in time and going forward. And because of that, that's why I see some chalk that may be worth the lay.
At the very least it's a bet to consider and a market to be aware of going forward.
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