Wednesday Recap:
Record: 2-1 (+1.00)
Jose Quintana Over 2.5 Walks (+120) Win
Braves -1.5 (+104) vs Mets Win
Padres / Marlins No Run 1st (-124) Loss
How about them Braves pulling through for us last night? Not only were they patient at the plate, but they actually drove in the runs we needed! The pitching was stellar as well; so shoutout to Charlie Morton and Atlanta's bullpen. They helped us cash Jose Quintana Over 2.5 Walks (+120) and Braves -1.5 (+104).
As for our loss of the night - man, that was unfortunate. It's one thing to lose a bet, but then to have your thought process carry on for several innings after, but not hit when you need it to, is a big bummer. We lost the no run in the 1st (-124) between the Padres and Marlins. Seth Lugo did his job, and actually ended up going six scoreless innings. However, Sandy Alcantara could not escape the 1st inning without surrendering a run, which led to our defeat. Then, naturally, Alcantara proceeds to pitch four scoreless innings afterwards, which made that loss a tad more painful. Nevertheless, we come out on top and we're looking to keep things rolling into Thursday night.
Thursday Preview:
9:40pm ET - Reds @ Diamondbacks
Let's begin in the desert where we have two teams fighting to stay alive in the NL Wild Card race. Cincinnati comes into this matchup after sweeping the Angels on the road in a three game set. And Arizona is on quite the surge themselves having won their last four games.
My initial instinct, with Merrill Kelly (10-5, 3.13 ERA) facing Brandon Williamson (4-3, 4.47 ERA), was to back the D'Backs. Unfortunately, though, the market was set appropriately to begin with as Circa opened Arizona at -160 on the moneyline, which was already steep to begin with. And around 11:30am ET as I'm writing this, they have the favorites now as high as -170.
Your response to me saying that could be: "Well, Danny, why don't you just take them on the runline then?"
To which I would respond with some stats via the D'Backs shaky bullpen that causes some hesitation on trusting them for the full game.
And here they are...
Arizona Bullpen: 4.59 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 14% HR/FB
Aside from the bullpen woes, the Snakes bats have been cooling down in the desert as well. Since the All-Star Break, against lefties, Arizona ranks 23rd in wRC+ (83), 21st in wOBA (.297) and 20th in OPS (.680).
So that's another reason for my timidness on the runline.
Let's investigate these starting pitching matchups:
Williamson, the southpaw, has an xFIP (4.69) that is higher than his ERA (4.47) and his SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) is 4.70. Concerning numbers - yes, however...
Williamson has faced the Diamondbacks once this season and had a very strong outing. On July 22nd, he went 6.0 IP, allowed just 3 hits and 1 ER against Arizona.
As for the home team's starter - Kelly - on the other hand, has had much better numbers this season: 3.13 ERA / 3.88 xFIP / 4.13 SIERA.
He also has pitched slightly better at home and is projected to continue that with a 3.72 xFIP at home compared to a 4.04 xFIP on the road.
Kelly has not faced the Reds this season, but career wise he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts vs Cincy.
The Reds, against righties since the ASB, come into this game ranking 25th in wRC+ (86), 20th in wOBA (.310) and 18th in OPS (.718).
So clearly both offenses are underwhelming heading into this matchup, which may present a quality opportunity for both starting pitchers.
And that's what draws my interest to the total. Now, personally, seldom am I playing full game unders. Bullpens do frighten me, the majority of my handicap is typically on the starting pitchers anyhow and, most importantly, the possibility of extra innings is typically detrimental to a full game under bet.
However, to each their own. I don't have issues with anyones philosophy in betting full game unders - it's just not my cup of tea.
Instead, I prefer to look at the first five under. Again, the main basis of my handicap is on the starters and if I can avoid more innings, which provides more opportunities for creating runs - than I will look to do so.
We see the first five under being listed at 4.5 for this game, and the best price is +100 at BetRivers in Illinois. All other books are making you lay at least the standard vig of -110.
So because of the price, both offenses being in a rut and this game having the feeling of a playoff atmosphere, I think it will be played tightly and runs will come at a premium.
Play: First Five Under 4.5 Runs (+100)
GAME TO CONSIDER:
*I have a lean in this spot, but will more than likely stay away. However, even though I am not wagering on it, I still want to offer my analysis for anyone else out there who is contemplating placing a bet and would like some guidance one way or another.*
7:10pm ET - Rangers @ Twins
Both teams are seeking to get back in the win column tonight as the Rangers come into this spot enduring a six-game losing streak and the Twins having just lost both matchups in Milwaukee vs the Brewers.
Texas is hoping the Southpaw, Andrew Heaney, can provide a spark tonight. But, after you check out his numbers, I think it's reasonable to assume that would be a tall order for the 32 year old.
Heaney, this season, has posted a 4.27 ERA and a 4.72 FIP. He is walking 3.66 batters per nine innings and has a home run to fly ball ratio of 14.3%. Heaney has a 5.35 FIP on the road compared to a 4.33 FIP at home and will be facing a Minnesota offense that ranks 14th in wRC+, OPS and wOBA vs LHP since the ASB.
The Twins will have the righty Pablo Lopez taking the bump for them this evening. Lopez has had a solid season thus far with a 9-6 record, 3.51 ERA and a FIP of 3.17. Lopez also has a very strong SIERA of 3.35 and has pitched considerably better at home (2.92 FIP) than on the road (3.38 FIP).
And as of late, Lopez has been unstoppable. His last 19 innings pitched have been scoreless and he is 4-0 with a 0.36 ERA in four starts this month.
We all know how dominant the Rangers bats have been this season, and much of that has persisted vs RHP since the ASB. Texas is 8th in wOBA and wRC+ in that span. However, if we look at a more narrow sample size, the Rangers have been struggling vs RHP the last two weeks:
22nd in wOBA (.302) / 22nd in wRC+ (91) / 21st in OPS (.704)
And considering Adolis Garcia is the only bat in the Rangers lineup that has done any kind of damage vs Lopez (2-3, 1B, 1 HR), I think he'll be able to manage this outing sufficiently enough.
(Speaking of damage to the opposing pitcher, if you're interested in a hitting prop, Carlos Correa would be the man to consider. In Correa's career vs Heaney, here are his numbers: 8-23, .381 AVG, .435 OBP, .524 SLG.)
Even if the Twins can't get to Heaney, there is still a great chance they will expose Texas' weak bullpen. The Rangers relief has an ERA of 4.64 and an xFIP of 4.43.
In conclusion, the market has shown some slight support to the road team. I would tend to disagree and see that as an opportunity to take advantage of a cheaper number on the chalk. But, ultimately, something about this Minnesota team scares me in this position. The Twins had been a team I backed a ton in the beginning of this season. But it did not come without stress. There are a ton of red flags with this bunch and most of it comes with their inability to take advantage of runners in scoring position against weaker pitchers. Heaney would fit the bill for a weaker pitcher and considering this Rangers team is in the thick of a division race and desperate for a win, it wouldn't shock me to see them pull this dub out in the first game of the series. So, again, I lean toward the favorite, but because of the uniqueness of the situation I am staying away.
MLB Record: 70-62-1 (-1.57)
Futures Pending:
Logan Webb NL Cy Young (33/1)
Brewers Under 85.5 Wins (-115)
Blue Jays (20/1) to Win World Series
Marlins to Miss Playoffs (-140)
Spencer Strider 8/1 to Win NL Cy Young
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